Upstream control of Agulhas Ring shedding

Rings shed in the Agulhas Retroflection region play an important role in the global thermohaline circulation. The shedding of these rings has been considered very irregular. In this paper, we present evidence for remote control of the timing and frequency of the ring shedding events. This turns out to be a far more regular process, at a frequency of 4–5 cycles per year. The movement of the Agulhas Retroflection, and thereby the shedding of rings, is timed by incoming eddies from the upstream regions. Eddies from the Mozambique Channel, and from the East Madagascar current reach the retroflection region at the frequency of 4–5 times per year. The existence of these eddies can be related to incoming Rossby waves that cross the Indian Ocean and reach the Agulhas Current system. These may in turn be part of a basin-wide oscillation. The irregularity found in ring shedding statistics can be ascribed to processes occurring between the actual shedding and the first unambiguous observation of a separated ring.

Eddies and variability in the Mozambique Channel

Between 1995 and 2000, on average 4 eddies per year are observed from satellite altimetry to propagate southward through the Mozambique Channel, into the upstream Agulhas region. Further south, these eddies have been found to control the timing and frequenc yof Agulhas ring shedding. Within the Mozambique Channel, anomalous SSH amplitudes rise to 30 cm ; in agreement with in situ measured velocities. Comparison of an observed velocit ysection with GCM model results shows that the Mozambique Channel eddies in these models are too surface intensified. Also, the number of eddies formed in the models is in disagreement with our observational analysis. Moored current meter measurements observing the passage of three eddies in 2000 are extended to a 5-year time series b yreferencing the anomalous surface currents estimated from altimeter data to a s ynoptic LADCP velocit y measurement. The results show intermittent edd ypassage at the mooring location. A statistical analysis of SSH observations in different parts of the Mozambique Channel shows a southward decrease of the dominant frequency of the variability, going from 7 per year in the extension of the South Equatorial Current north of Madagascar to 4 per year south of Madagascar. The observations suggest that frequency reduction is related to the Rossb ywaves coming in from the east

A parallel data assimilation model for oceanographic observations

In this paper we describe the development of a program that aims at the optimal integration of observed data in an oceanographic model describ

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Analysis of cryptic, systemic Botrytis infections in symptomless hosts

Botrytis species are generally considered to be aggressive, necrotrophic plant pathogens. By contrast to this general perception, however, Botrytis species could frequently be isolated from the interior of multiple tissues in apparently healthy hosts of many species. Infection frequencies reached 50% of samples or more, but were commonly less, and cryptic infections were rare or absent in some plant species. Prevalence varied substantially from year to year and from tissue to tissue, but some host species routinely had high prevalence. The same genotype was found to occur throughout a host, representing mycelial spread. B. cinerea and B. pseudocinerea are the species that most commonly occur as cryptic infections, but phylogenetically distant isolates of Botrytis were also detected, one of which does not correspond to previously described species. Sporulation and visible damage occurred only when infected tissues were stressed, or became mature or senescent. There was no evidence of cryptic infection having a deleterious effect on growth of the host, and prevalence was probably greater in plants grown in high light conditions. Isolates from cryptic infections were often capable of causing disease (to varying extents) when spore suspensions were inoculated onto their own host as well as on distinct host species, arguing against co-adaptation between cryptic isolates and their hosts. These data collectively suggest that several Botrytis species, including the most notorious pathogenic species, exist frequently in cryptic form to an extent that has thus far largely been neglected, and do not need to cause disease on healthy hosts in order to complete their life-cycles.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.