The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Human neural stem cell-derived cultures in three- dimensional substrates form spontaneously functional neuronal networks

Differentiated human neural stem cells were cultured in an inert three-dimensional (3D) scaffold and, unlike two-dimensional (2D) but otherwise comparable monolayer cultures, formed spontaneously active, functional neuronal networks that responded reproducibly and predictably to conventional pharmacological treatments to reveal functional, glutamatergic synapses. Immunocytochemical and electron microscopy analysis revealed a neuronal and glial population, where markers of neuronal maturity were observed in the former. Oligonucleotide microarray analysis revealed substantial differences in gene expression conferred by culturing in a 3D vs a 2D environment. Notable and numerous differences were seen in genes coding for neuronal function, the extracellular matrix and cytoskeleton. In addition to producing functional networks, differentiated human neural stem cells grown in inert scaffolds offer several significant advantages over conventional 2D monolayers. These advantages include cost savings and improved physiological relevance, which make them better suited for use in the pharmacological and toxicological assays required for development of stem cell-based treatments and the reduction of animal use in medical research.

Resting tremor classification and detection in Parkinson's disease patients

Parkinson is a neurodegenerative disease, in which tremor is the main symptom. This paper investigates the use of different classification methods to identify tremors experienced by Parkinsonian patients.Some previous research has focussed tremor analysis on external body signals (e.g., electromyography, accelerometer signals, etc.). Our advantage is that we have access to sub-cortical data, which facilitates the applicability of the obtained results into real medical devices since we are dealing with brain signals directly. Local field potentials (LFP) were recorded in the subthalamic nucleus of 7 Parkinsonian patients through the implanted electrodes of a deep brain stimulation (DBS) device prior to its internalization. Measured LFP signals were preprocessed by means of splinting, down sampling, filtering, normalization and rec-tification. Then, feature extraction was conducted through a multi-level decomposition via a wavelettrans form. Finally, artificial intelligence techniques were applied to feature selection, clustering of tremor types, and tremor detection.The key contribution of this paper is to present initial results which indicate, to a high degree of certainty, that there appear to be two distinct subgroups of patients within the group-1 of patients according to the Consensus Statement of the Movement Disorder Society on Tremor. Such results may well lead to different resultant treatments for the patients involved, depending on how their tremor has been classified. Moreover, we propose a new approach for demand driven stimulation, in which tremor detection is also based on the subtype of tremor the patient has. Applying this knowledge to the tremor detection problem, it can be concluded that the results improve when patient clustering is applied prior to detection.

Essays on robust portfolio selection and pension finance

This thesis examines three different, but related problems in the broad area of portfolio management for long-term institutional investors, and focuses mainly on the case of pension funds. The first idea (Chapter 3) is the application of a novel numerical technique – robust optimization – to a real-world pension scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) for first time. The corresponding empirical results are supported by many robustness checks and several benchmarks such as the Bayes-Stein and Black-Litterman models that are also applied for first time in a pension ALM framework, the Sharpe and Tint model and the actual USS asset allocations. The second idea presented in Chapter 4 is the investigation of whether the selection of the portfolio construction strategy matters in the SRI industry, an issue of great importance for long term investors. This study applies a variety of optimal and naïve portfolio diversification techniques to the same SRI-screened universe, and gives some answers to the question of which portfolio strategies tend to create superior SRI portfolios. Finally, the third idea (Chapter 5) compares the performance of a real-world pension scheme (USS) before and after the recent major changes in the pension rules under different dynamic asset allocation strategies and the fixed-mix portfolio approach and quantifies the redistributive effects between various stakeholders. Although this study deals with a specific pension scheme, the methodology can be applied by other major pension schemes in countries such as the UK and USA that have changed their rules.

Collabowrighting the hyper(play)text: a postdramatic digital poetics

The aim of this research is to exhibit how literary playtexts can evoke multisensory trends prevalent in 21st century theatre. In order to do so, it explores a range of practical forms and theoretical contexts for creating participatory, site-specific and immersive theatre. With reference to literary theory, specifically to semiotics, reader-response theory, postmodernism and deconstruction, it attempts to revise dramatic theory established by Aristotle’s Poetics. Considering Gertrude Stein’s essay, Plays (1935), and relevant trends in theatre and performance, shaped by space, technology and the everchanging role of the audience member, a postdramatic poetics emerges from which to analyze the plays of Mac Wellman and Suzan-Lori Parks. Distinguishing the two textual lives of a play as the performance playtext and the literary playtext, it examines the conventions of the printed literary playtext, with reference to models of practice that radicalize the play form, including works by Mabou Mines, The Living Theatre and Fiona Templeton. The arguments of this practice-led Ph.D. developed out of direct engagement with the practice project, which explores the multisensory potential of written language when combined with hypermedia. The written thesis traces the development process of a new play, Rumi High, which is presented digitally as a ‘hyper(play)text,’ accessible through the Internet at www.RumiHigh.org. Here, ‘playwrighting’ practice is expanded spatially, collaboratively and textually. Plays are built, designed and crafted with many layers of meaning that explore both linguistic and graphic modes of poetic expression. The hyper(play)text of Rumi High establishes playwrighting practice as curatorial, where performance and literary playtexts are in a reciprocal relationship. This thesis argues that digital writing and reading spaces enable new approaches to expressing the many languages of performance, while expanding the collaborative network that produces the work. It questions how participatory forms of immersive and site-specific theatre can be presented as interactive literary playtexts, which enable the reader to have a multisensory experience. Through a reflection on process and an evaluation of the practice project, this thesis problematizes notions of authorship and text.