Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Resilience of rice (Oryzaspp.) pollen germination and tube growth to temperature stress

Resilience of rice cropping systems to potential global climate change will partly depend on temperature tolerance of pollen germination (PG) and tube growth (PTG). Germination of pollen of high temperature susceptible Oryza glaberrima Steud. (cv. CG14) and O. sativa L. ssp. indica (cv. IR64) and high temperature tolerant O. sativa ssp. aus (cv. N22), was assessed on a 5.6-45.4°C temperature gradient system. Mean maximum PG was 85% at 27°C with 1488 μm PTG at 25°C. The hypothesis that in each pollen grain, minimum temperature requirements (Tn) and maximum temperature limits (Tx) for germination operate independently was accepted by comparing multiplicative and subtractive probability models. The maximum temperature limit for PG in 50% of grains (Tx(50)) was lowest (29.8°C) in IR64 compared with CG14 (34.3°C) and N22 (35.6°C). Standard deviation (sx) of Tx was also low in IR64 (2.3°C) suggesting that the mechanism of IR64's susceptibility to high temperatures may relate to PG. Optimum germination temperatures and thermal times for 1mm PTG were not linked to tolerating high temperatures at anthesis. However, the parameters Tx(50) and sx in the germination model define new pragmatic criteria for successful and resilient PG, preferable to the more traditional cardinal (maximum and minimum) temperatures.

Ecophysiology of seed dormancy and the control of germination in early spring-flowering Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus (Amaryllidaceae)

Seed dormancy induction and alleviation in the winter-flowering moist temperate woodland species Galanthus nivalis and Narcissus pseudonarcissus are complex and poorly understood. Temperature, light and desiccation were investigated to elucidate their role in the germination ecophysiology of these species. Outdoor and laboratory experiments simulating different seasonal temperatures, seasonal durations, and temperature fluctuations; the presence of light during different seasons; and intermittent drying (during the summer period) over several ‘years’ investigated the importance of these factors in germination. Warm summer-like temperatures (20°C) were necessary for germination at subsequent cooler autumn-like temperatures (greatest at 15°C in G. nivalis and 10°C in N. pseudonarcissus). As the warm temperature duration increased so did germination at subsequent cooler temperatures; further germination occurred in subsequent ‘years’ at cooler temperatures following a second, and also third, warm period. Germination was significantly greater in darkness, particularly in G. nivalis. Dormancy increased with seed maturation period in G. nivalis, because seeds extracted from green capsules germinated more readily than those from yellow. Desiccation increased dormancy in an increasing proportion of N. pseudonarcissus seeds the later they were dried in ‘summer’. Seed viability was only slightly reduced by desiccation in N. pseudonarcissus but was poor and variable in G. nivalis. Shoot formation occurred both at the temperature at which germination was greatest and also if 5°C cooler. In summary, continuous hydration of seeds of both species during warm summer-like temperatures results in the gradual release of seed dormancy; thereafter, darkness and cooler temperatures promote germination. Cold temperatures, increased seed maturity (G. nivalis), and desiccation (N. pseudonarcissus) increase dormancy while light inhibits germination.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

A simple and versatile 2-dimensional platform to study plant germination and growth under controlled humidity

We describe a simple, inexpensive, but remarkably versatile and controlled growth environment for the observation of plant germination and seedling root growth on a flat, horizontal surface over periods of weeks. The setup provides to each plant a controlled humidity (between 56% and 91% RH), and contact with both nutrients and atmosphere. The flat and horizontal geometry of the surface supporting the roots eliminates the gravitropic bias on their development and facilitates the imaging of the entire root system. Experiments can be setup under sterile conditions and then transferred to a non-sterile environment. The system can be assembled in 1-2 minutes, costs approximately 8.78$ per plant, is almost entirely reusable (0.43$ per experiment in disposables), and is easily scalable to a variety of plants. We demonstrate the performance of the system by germinating, growing, and imaging Wheat (Triticum aestivum), Corn (Zea mays), and Wisconsin Fast Plants (Brassica rapa). Germination rates were close to those expected for optimal conditions.

Premature germination of resting spores as a means of Protecting brassica crops from Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor., (clubroot)

Premature germination of resting spores as a means of protecting brassica crops from Plasmodiphora brassicae Wor., (Clubroot). Crop Protection. Clubroot disease causes substantial yield and quality losses in broadacre oil seed and intensive vegetable brassica crops worldwide. The causal microbe Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor., perennates as soil-borne dormant resting spores. Their germination is triggered by exudates from host roots. A valuable addition to sustainable integrated control strategies could be developed by identifying and synthesising the molecules responsible for stimulating resting spore germination. This paper reports experiments in which stimulatory exudates were collected from brassica roots following exposure to infective stages of P. brassicae. Analyses identified a germination signalling molecule of circa 1 kDa formed of glucose sub-units. Mass spectral analyses showed this to be a complex hexasaccharide carbohydrate with structural similarities to the components of plant cell walls. This is the first report of a host generated hexasaccharide which is capable of stimulating the germination of resting spores of P. brassicae. The implications for environmentally benign control of clubroot are discussed briefly.

Analysis of dietary pattern impact on weight status for personalised nutrition through on-line advice: the Food4Me Spanish cohort

Obesity prevalence is increasing. The management of this condition requires a detailed analysis of the global risk factors in order to develop personalised advice. This study is aimed to identify current dietary patterns and habits in Spanish population interested in personalised nutrition and investigate associations with weight status. Self-reported dietary and anthropometrical data from the Spanish participants in the Food4Me study, were used in a multidimensional exploratory analysis to define specific dietary profiles. Two opposing factors were obtained according to food groups’ intake: Factor 1 characterised by a more frequent consumption of traditionally considered unhealthy foods; and Factor 2, where the consumption of “Mediterranean diet” foods was prevalent. Factor 1 showed a direct relationship with BMI (β = 0.226; r2 = 0.259; p < 0.001), while the association with Factor 2 was inverse (β = −0.037; r2 = 0.230; p = 0.348). A total of four categories were defined (Prudent, Healthy, Western, and Compensatory) through classification of the sample in higher or lower adherence to each factor and combining the possibilities. Western and Compensatory dietary patterns, which were characterized by high-density foods consumption, showed positive associations with overweight prevalence. Further analysis showed that prevention of overweight must focus on limiting the intake of known deleterious foods rather than exclusively enhance healthy products.

A new pattern for historical geography: working with enthusiast communities and public history

This paper argues for the adoption of participatory approaches in historical geography, drawing on the author's experience in working with enthusiast communities in the UK in the context of collaborative research with the Science Museum and ideas of public history and geography.

A tillering inhibition gene influences root-shoot carbon partitioning and pattern of water use to improve wheat productivity in rainfed environments

Genetic modification of shoot and root morphology has potential to improve water and nutrient 19 uptake of wheat crops in rainfed environments. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) varying for a tillering 20 inhibition (tin) gene and representing multiple genetic backgrounds were investigated in contrasting 21 controlled environments for shoot and root growth. Leaf area, shoot and root biomass were similar 22 until tillering whereupon reduced tillering in tin-containing NILs produced reductions of up to 60% in 23 total leaf area and biomass, and increases in total root length of up to 120% and root biomass to 24 145%. Together, root-to-shoot ratio increased two-fold with the tin gene. The influence of tin on shoot 25 and root growth was greatest in the cv. Banks genetic background, particularly in the biculm-selected 26 NIL, and was typically strongest in cooler environments. A separate de-tillering study confirmed 27 greater root-to-shoot ratios with regular tiller removal in non-tin containing genotypes. In validating 28 these observations in a rainfed field study, the tin allele had a negligible effect on seedling growth but 29 was associated with significantly (P<0.05) reduced tiller number (-37%), leaf area index (-26%) and 30 spike number (-35%) to reduce plant biomass (-19%) at anthesis. Root biomass, root-to-shoot ratio at 31 early stem elongation and root depth at maturity were increased in tin-containing NILs. Soil water use 32 was slowed in tin-containing NILs resulting in greater water availability, greater stomatal 33 conductance, cooler canopy temperatures and maintenance of green leaf area during grain-filling. 34 Together these effects contributed to increases in harvest index and grain yield. In both the controlled 35 and field environments, the tin gene was commonly associated with increased root length and biomass 36 but the significant influence of genetic background and environment suggests careful assessment of 37 tin-containing progeny in selection for genotypic increases in root growth.

Corticomuscular coherence modulation with the pattern of finger force coordination

We assess the corticomuscular coherence (CMC) of the contralateral primary motor cortex and the hand muscles during a finger force-tracking task and explore whether the pattern of finger coordination has an impact on the CMC level. Six healthy subjects (three men and three women) were recruited to conduct the force-tracking tasks comprising two finger patterns, i.e., natural combination of index and middle fingers and unnatural combination of index and middle fingers (i.e., simultaneously producing equal force strength in index and middle finger). During the conducting of the tasks with right index and middle finger, MEG and sEMG signals were recorded from left primary motor cortex (M1) and right flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), respectively; the contralateral CMC was calculated to assess the neuromuscular interaction. Finger force-tracking tasks of Common-IM only induce beta-band CMC, whereas Uncommon-IM tasks produce CMC in both beta and low-gamma band. Compared to the force-tracking tasks of Common-IM, the Uncommon-IM task is associated with the most intensive contralateral CMC. Our study demonstrated that the pattern of finger coordination had significant impact on the CMC between the contralateral M1 and hand muscles, and more corticomuscular interaction was necessary for unnaturally coordinated finger activities to regulate the fixed neural drive of hand muscles.

Emergence dynamics of barnyardgrass and jimsonweed from two depths when switching from conventional to reduced and no-till conditions

A cylinder experiment was conducted in northern Greece during 2005 and 2006 to assess emergence dynamics of barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) Beauv.) and jimsonweed (Datura stramonium L.) in the case of a switch from conventional to conservation tillage systems (CT). Emergence was surveyed from two burial depths (5 and 10 cm) and with simulation of reduced tillage (i.e. by soil disturbance) and no-till conditions. Barnyardgrass emergence was significantly affected by burial depth, having greater emergence from 5 cm depth (96%) although even 78% of seedlings emerged from 10 cm depth after the two years of study. Emergence of barnyardgrass was stable across years from the different depths and tillage regimes. Jimsonweed seeds showed lower germination than barnyardgrass during the study period, whereas its emergence was significantly affected by soil disturbance having 41% compared to 28% without disturbance. A burial depth x soil disturbance interaction was also determined, which showed higher emergence from 10 cm depth with soil disturbance. Jimsonweed was found to have significantly higher emergence from 10 cm depth with soil disturbance in Year 2. Seasonal emergence timing of barnyardgrass did not vary between the different burial depth and soil disturbance regimes, as it started in April and lasted until end of May in both years. Jimsonweed showed a bimodal pattern, with first emergence starting end of April until mid-May and the second ranging from mid-June to mid-August from 10 cm burial depth and from mid-July to mid-August from 5 cm depth, irrespective of soil disturbance in both cases.