A self-similar expansion model for use in solar wind transient propogation studies

Since the advent of wide-angle imaging of the inner heliosphere, a plethora of techniques have been developed to investigate the three-dimensional structure and kinematics of solar wind transients, such as coronal mass ejections, from their signatures in single- and multi-spacecraft imaging observations. These techniques, which range from the highly complex and computationally intensive to methods based on simple curve fitting, all have their inherent advantages and limitations. In the analysis of single-spacecraft imaging observations, much use has been made of the fixed φ fitting (FPF) and harmonic mean fitting (HMF) techniques, in which the solar wind transient is considered to be a radially propagating point source (fixed φ, FP, model) and a radially expanding circle anchored at Sun centre (harmonic mean, HM, model), respectively. Initially, we compare the radial speeds and propagation directions derived from application of the FPF and HMF techniques to a large set of STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. As the geometries on which these two techniques are founded constitute extreme descriptions of solar wind transients in terms of their extent along the line of sight, we describe a single-spacecraft fitting technique based on a more generalized model for which the FP and HM geometries form the limiting cases. In addition to providing estimates of a transient’s speed and propagation direction, the self-similar expansion fitting (SSEF) technique provides, in theory, the capability to estimate the transient’s angular extent in the plane orthogonal to the field of view. Using the HI observations, and also by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we assess the potential of the SSEF technique.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

Tests of non-linearity using LIFFE futures transactions price data

This paper presents and implements a number of tests for non-linear dependence and a test for chaos using transactions prices on three LIFFE futures contracts: the Short Sterling interest rate contract, the Long Gilt government bond contract, and the FTSE 100 stock index futures contract. While previous studies of high frequency futures market data use only those transactions which involve a price change, we use all of the transaction prices on these contracts whether they involve a price change or not. Our results indicate irrefutable evidence of non-linearity in two of the three contracts, although we find no evidence of a chaotic process in any of the series. We are also able to provide some indications of the effect of the duration of the trading day on the degree of non-linearity of the underlying contract. The trading day for the Long Gilt contract was extended in August 1994, and prior to this date there is no evidence of any structure in the return series. However, after the extension of the trading day we do find evidence of a non-linear return structure.

Bridge-localized HOMO-binding character of divinylanthracene-bridged dinuclear ruthenium carbonyl complexes: spectroscopic, spectroelectrochemical, and computational studies

The electronic properties of four divinylanthracene-bridged diruthenium carbonyl complexes [{RuCl(CO)(PMe3)3}2(μ[BOND]CH[DOUBLE BOND]CHArCH[DOUBLE BOND]CH)] (Ar=9,10-anthracene (1), 1,5-anthracene (2), 2,6-anthracene (3), 1,8-anthracene (4)) obtained by molecular spectroscopic methods (IR, UV/Vis/near-IR, and EPR spectroscopy) and DFT calculations are reported. IR spectroelectrochemical studies have revealed that these complexes are first oxidized at the noninnocent bridging ligand, which is in line with the very small ν(C[TRIPLE BOND]O) wavenumber shift that accompanies this process and also supported by DFT calculations. Because of poor conjugation in complex 1, except oxidized 1+, the electronic absorption spectra of complexes 2+, 3+, and 4+ all display the characteristic near-IR band envelopes that have been deconvoluted into three Gaussian sub-bands. Two of the sub-bands belong mainly to metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) transitions according to results from time-dependent DFT calculations. EPR spectroscopy of chemically generated 1+–4+ proves largely ligand-centered spin density, again in accordance with IR spectra and DFT calculations results.

Advanced feature selection methods in multinominal dementia classification from structural MRI data

Recent studies showed that features extracted from brain MRIs can well discriminate Alzheimer’s disease from Mild Cognitive Impairment. This study provides an algorithm that sequentially applies advanced feature selection methods for findings the best subset of features in terms of binary classification accuracy. The classifiers that provided the highest accuracies, have been then used for solving a multi-class problem by the one-versus-one strategy. Although several approaches based on Regions of Interest (ROIs) extraction exist, the prediction power of features has not yet investigated by comparing filter and wrapper techniques. The findings of this work suggest that (i) the IntraCranial Volume (ICV) normalization can lead to overfitting and worst the accuracy prediction of test set and (ii) the combined use of a Random Forest-based filter with a Support Vector Machines-based wrapper, improves accuracy of binary classification.

Life before ‘The New Biography’: Modernist biographical methods in the Hogarth Press ‘Books on Tolstoi’ 1920-24

In the early 1920s, before Virginia Woolf wrote her now well-known essays “The New Biography” and “The Art of Biography,” the Hogarth Press published four biographies of Tolstoy. Each of these English translations of Russian works takes a different approach to biographical composition, and as a group they offer multiple and contradictory perspectives on Tolstoy’s character and on the genre of biography in the early twentieth century. These works show that Leonard and Virginia Woolf’s Hogarth Press took a multi-perspectival, modernist approach to publishing literary lives.

Analysis of the courtship behavior of the Navel Orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), with a commentary on methods for the analysis of sequences of behavioral transitions

The courtship behavior of the navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella, was examined in a wind tunnel. Sixty nine courtship sequences were analyzed and successful sequences divided into two categories: rapid courtship sequences, which involved few breaks in contact, short or no periods of male/female chasing and lasted <10 s between initial contact and mating; and prolonged courtship sequences, which involved many breaks in contact, extended periods of male/female chasing and lasted >10 s. Fifty six (81%) courtships were successful (50.7% rapid courtship and 30.4% prolonged courtship); the remaining 13 (18.8%) sequences were failed courtships. Of failed courtships, 9 (13.0%) were due to males losing contact with females during courtship chases and 4 (5.8%) due to females flying away immediately after male contact. Of all courtship sequences involving a break in contact during a chase, 38.5% resulted in an unsuccessful mating attempt. These findings contrast with previous studies of the courtship behavior of the navel orangeworm, potentially indicating that the type of bioassay used to study courtship may have a large effect on the behavioral sequences displayed. We evaluate several diagnostic techniques for the analysis of sequences of behavioral transitions.

Researching farmer behaviour in climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture: lessons learned from five case studies

Understanding farmer behaviour is needed for local agricultural systems to produce food sustainably while facing multiple pressures. We synthesize existing literature to identify three fundamental questions that correspond to three distinct areas of knowledge necessary to understand farmer behaviour: 1) decision-making model; 2) cross-scale and cross-level pressures; and 3) temporal dynamics. We use this framework to compare five interdisciplinary case studies of agricultural systems in distinct geographical contexts across the globe. We find that these three areas of knowledge are important to understanding farmer behaviour, and can be used to guide the interdisciplinary design and interpretation of studies in the future. Most importantly, we find that these three areas need to be addressed simultaneously in order to understand farmer behaviour. We also identify three methodological challenges hindering this understanding: the suitability of theoretical frameworks, the trade-offs among methods and the limited timeframe of typical research projects. We propose that a triangulation research strategy that makes use of mixed methods, or collaborations between researchers across mixed disciplines, can be used to successfully address all three areas simultaneously and show how this has been achieved in the case studies. The framework facilitates interdisciplinary research on farmer behaviour by opening up spaces of structured dialogue on assumptions, research questions and methods employed in investigation.

Methods to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa

There is a tendency to reduce ventilation rates and natural or hybrid ventilation systems to ensure the conservation of energy in school buildings. However, high indoor pollutant concentration, due to natural or hybrid ventilation systems may have a significant adverse impact on the health and academic performance of pupils and students. Reviewed evidence shows that this can be detrimental to health and wellbeing in schools because of the learner density within a small area, eventually indicating that CO2 concentrations can rise to very high levels (about 4000 ppm) in classrooms during occupancy periods. In South Africa’s naturally ventilated classrooms, it is not clear whether the environmental conditions are conducive for learning. In addition, natural ventilation will be minimized given the fact that in cold, wet or windy weather, doors and windows will commonly remain closed. Evidence from literature based studies indicates that the significance of ventilation techniques is not understood satisfactorily and additional information concerning naturally ventilated schools has to be provided for better design and policy formulation. To develop a thorough understanding of the environments in classrooms, many other parameters have to be considered as well, such as outdoor air quality, CO2 concentrations, temperature and relative humidity and safety issues that may be important drawbacks for naturally ventilated schools. The aim of this paper is to develop a conceptual understanding of methods that can be implemented to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa. A theoretical concept with an embedded practical methodology have been proposed for the research programme to investigate the relationship between ventilation rates and learning in schools in Gauteng , a province in South Africa. It is important that existing and future school buildings must include adequate outdoor ventilation, control of moisture, and avoidance of indoor exposures to microbiologic and chemical substances considered likely to have adverse effects in South Africa. Adequate ventilation in classrooms is necessary to reduce and/or eradicate the transmission of indoor pollutants.

Childhood trauma: methods for the identification of physeal fractures in non-adult skeletal remains

Objectives Today, fractures at the growth plate (or physis) are common injuries in children, but provide challenges of identification in skeletonized remains. Clinical studies provide detailed information on the mechanisms, locations, age of occurrence, and complications associated with physeal fractures, enabling the development of new criteria for identifying this injury in non-adults. To test these criteria, skeletal remains from five rural and urban medieval cemeteries were examined. Methods The sample consisted of 961 skeletons (0-17 years) with open epiphyses. Macroscopic observation looked for any irregularities of the metaphysis or epiphysis which was consistent with the clinical appearance of physeal fractures or resulting complications. Radiographic examination was applied to identify fracture lines or early growth arrest. Results This study revealed 12 cases of physeal trauma (1.2%). Physeal fractures occurred predominantly at the distal end (75%), and while they were identified in all age categories, they were most frequent in those aged 12-17 years (0.2% TPR). The humerus was the most commonly affected location (3/12 or 25%). Conclusions This study highlights the potential for recognizing physeal fractures in children of all ages, enhancing our understanding of non-adult trauma, and enabling us to assign a more precise age of the injury to build up a picture of their activities in the past.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.

Stopping rules for phase II studies

This paper, the second in a series of three papers concerned with the statistical aspects of interim analyses in clinical trials, is concerned with stopping rules in phase II clinical trials. Phase II trials are generally small-scale studies, and may include one or more experimental treatments with or without a control. A common feature is that the results primarily determine the course of further clinical evaluation of a treatment rather than providing definitive evidence of treatment efficacy. This means that there is more flexibility available in the design and analysis of such studies than in phase III trials. This has led to a range of different approaches being taken to the statistical design of stopping rules for such trials. This paper briefly describes and compares the different approaches. In most cases the stopping rules can be described and implemented easily without knowledge of the detailed statistical and computational methods used to obtain the rules.

Sensory and consumer science methods used with older adults: a review of current methods and recommendations for the future

Capturing the sensory perception and preferences of older adults, whether healthy or with particular disease states, poses major methodological challenges for the sensory community. Currently a vastly under researched area, it is at the same time a vital area of research as alterations in sensory perception can affect daily dietary food choices, intake, health and wellbeing. Tailored sensory methods are needed that take into account the challenges of working with such populations including poor access leading to low patient numbers (study power), cognitive abilities, use of medications, clinical treatments and context (hospitals and care homes). The objective of this paper was to review current analytical and affective sensory methodologies used with different cohorts of healthy and frail older adults, with focus on food preference and liking. We particularly drew attention to studies concerning general ageing as well as to those considering age-related diseases that have an emphasis on malnutrition and weight loss. Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched to 2014 for relevant articles in English. From this search 75 papers concerning sensory acuity, 41 regarding perceived intensity and 73 relating to hedonic measures were reviewed. Simpler testing methods, such as directional forced choice tests and paired preference tests need to be further explored to determine whether they lead to more reliable results and better inter-cohort comparisons. Finally, sensory quality and related quality of life for older adults suffering from dementia must be included and not ignored in our future actions.

Improving power and accuracy of genome-wide association studies via a multi-locus mixed linear model methodology

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been widely used in genetic dissection of complex traits. However, common methods are all based on a fixed-SNP-effect mixed linear model (MLM) and single marker analysis, such as efficient mixed model analysis (EMMA). These methods require Bonferroni correction for multiple tests, which often is too conservative when the number of markers is extremely large. To address this concern, we proposed a random-SNP-effect MLM (RMLM) and a multi-locus RMLM (MRMLM) for GWAS. The RMLM simply treats the SNP-effect as random, but it allows a modified Bonferroni correction to be used to calculate the threshold p value for significance tests. The MRMLM is a multi-locus model including markers selected from the RMLM method with a less stringent selection criterion. Due to the multi-locus nature, no multiple test correction is needed. Simulation studies show that the MRMLM is more powerful in QTN detection and more accurate in QTN effect estimation than the RMLM, which in turn is more powerful and accurate than the EMMA. To demonstrate the new methods, we analyzed six flowering time related traits in Arabidopsis thaliana and detected more genes than previous reported using the EMMA. Therefore, the MRMLM provides an alternative for multi-locus GWAS.

Education and training futures in horticulture and horticultural science

Horticultural knowledge and skills training have been with humankind for some 10,000 to 20,000 years. With permanent settlement and rising wealth and trade, horticulture products and services became a source of fresh food for daily consumption, and a source of plant material in developing a quality environment and lifestyle. The knowledge of horticulture and the skills of its practitioners have been demonstrated through the advancing civilizations in both eastern and western countries. With the rise of the Agricultural Revolutions in Great Britain, and more widely across Continental Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, as well as the move towards colonisation and early migration to the New Worlds, many westernised countries established the early institutions that would provide education and training in agriculture and horticulture. Today many of these colleges and universities provide undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational and technical training that specifically targets horticulture and/or horticultural science with some research and teaching institutions also providing extension and advisory services to industry. The objective of this chapter is to describe the wider pedagogic and educational context in which those concerned with horticulture operate, the institutional structures that target horticulture and horticultural science education and training internationally; examine changing educational formats, especially distance education; and consider strategies for attracting and retaining young people in the delivery of world-class horticultural education. In this chapter we set the context by investigating the horticultural education and training options available, the constraints that prevent young people entering horticulture, and suggest strategies that would attract and retain these students. We suggest that effective strategies and partnerships be put in place by the institution, the government and most importantly the industry to provide for undergraduate and postgraduate education in horticulture and horticultural science; that educational and vocational training institutions, government, and industry need to work more effectively together to improve communication about horticulture and horticultural science in order to attract enrolments of more and talented students; and that the horticulture curriculum be continuously evaluated and revised so that it remains relevant to future challenges facing the industries of horticulture in the production, environmental and social spheres. These strategies can be used as a means to develop successful programs and case studies that would provide better information to high school career counsellors, improve the image of horticulture and encourage greater involvement from alumni and the industries in recruitment, provide opportunities to improve career aspirations, ensure improved levels of remuneration, and promote the social features of the profession and greater awareness and recognition of the profession in the wider community. A successful career in horticulture demands intellectual capacities which are capable of drawing knowledge from a wide field of basic sciences, economics and the humanities and integrating this into academic scholarship and practical technologies.