The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM

On the time scale of a century, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is sensitive to the global surface salinity distribution. The advection of salinity toward the deep convection sites of the North Atlantic is one of the driving mechanisms for the THC. There is both a northward and a southward contributions. The northward salinity advection (Nsa) is related to the evaporation in the subtropics, and contributes to increased salinity in the convection sites. The southward salinity advection (Ssa) is related to the Arctic freshwater forcing and tends on the contrary to diminish salinity in the convection sites. The THC changes results from a delicate balance between these opposing mechanisms. In this study we evaluate these two effects using the IPSL-CM4 ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice coupled model (used for IPCC AR4). Perturbation experiments have been integrated for 100 years under modern insolation and trace gases. River runoff and evaporation minus precipitation are successively set to zero for the ocean during the coupling procedure. This allows the effect of processes Nsa and Ssa to be estimated with their specific time scales. It is shown that the convection sites in the North Atlantic exhibit various sensitivities to these processes. The Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant sensitivity to local forcing and Ssa with a typical time scale of 10 years, whereas the Irminger Sea is mostly sensitive to Nsa with a 15 year time scale. The GIN Seas respond to both effects with a time scale of 10 years for Ssa and 20 years for Nsa. It is concluded that, in the IPSL-CM4, the global freshwater forcing damps the THC on centennial time scales.

On defining base units in terms of fundamental constants

The definitions of the base units of the international system of units have been revised many times since the idea of such an international system was first conceived at the time of the French revolution. The objective today is to define all our units in terms of 'invariants of nature', i.e. by referencing our units to the fundamental constants of physics, or the properties of atoms, rather than the characteristics of our planet or of artefacts. This situation is reviewed, particularly in regard to finding a new definition of the kilogram to replace its present definition in terms of a prototype material artefact.

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

IR spectrum and radiative forcing of CF4 revisited

Carbon tetrafluoride (CF4) is included as a greenhouse gas within the Kyoto Protocol. There are significant discrepancies in the reported integrated infrared (IR) absorption cross section of CF4 leading to uncertainty in its contribution to climate change. To reduce this uncertainty, the IR spectrum of CF4 was measured in two different laboratories, in 0 933 hPa of air diluent at 296 +/- 2K over the wavelength range 600-3700 cm(-1) using spectral resolutions of 0.03 or 0.50 cm(-1). There was no discernable effect of diluent gas pressure or spectral resolution on the integrated IR absorption, and a value of the integrated absorption cross section of (1.90 +/- 0.17) x 10(-16) cm(2) molecule(-1) cm(-1) was derived. The radiative efficiency (radiative forcing per ppbv) and GWP (relative to CO2) of CF4 were calculated to be 0.102 W m(-2) ppbv(-1) and 7200 (100 year time horizon). The GWP for CF4 calculated herein is approximately 30% greater than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [ 2002] partly due to what we believe to be an erroneously low value for the IR absorption strength of CF4 assumed in the calculations adopted by the IPCC. The radiative efficiency of CF4 is predicted to decrease by up to 40% as the CF4 forcing starts to saturate and overlapping absorption by CH4, H2O, and N2O in the atmosphere increases over the period 1750-2100. The radiative forcing attributable to increased CF4 levels in the atmosphere from 1750 to 2000 is estimated to be 0.004 W m(-2) and is predicted to be up to 0.033 W m(-2) from 2000 to 2100, dependent on the scenario.

On defining base units in terms of fundamental constants

The definitions of the base units of the international system of units have been revised many times since the idea of such an international system was first conceived at the time of the French revolution. The objective today is to define all our units in terms of 'invariants of nature', i.e. by referencing our units to the fundamental constants of physics, or the properties of atoms, rather than the characteristics of our planet or of artefacts. This situation is reviewed, particularly in regard to finding a new definition of the kilogram to replace its present definition in terms of a prototype material artefact.

Effects of divided attention and speeded responding on implicit and explicit retrieval of artificial grammar knowledge

The artificial grammar (AG) learning literature (see, e.g., Mathews et al., 1989; Reber, 1967) has relied heavily on a single measure of implicitly acquired knowledge. Recent work comparing this measure (string classification) with a more indirect measure in which participants make liking ratings of novel stimuli (e.g., Manza & Bornstein, 1995; Newell & Bright, 2001) has shown that string classification (which we argue can be thought of as an explicit, rather than an implicit, measure of memory) gives rise to more explicit knowledge of the grammatical structure in learning strings and is more resilient to changes in surface features and processing between encoding and retrieval. We report data from two experiments that extend these findings. In Experiment 1, we showed that a divided attention manipulation (at retrieval) interfered with explicit retrieval of AG knowledge but did not interfere with implicit retrieval. In Experiment 2, we showed that forcing participants to respond within a very tight deadline resulted in the same asymmetric interference pattern between the tasks. In both experiments, we also showed that the type of information being retrieved influenced whether interference was observed. The results are discussed in terms of the relatively automatic nature of implicit retrieval and also with respect to the differences between analytic and nonanalytic processing (Whittlesea Price, 2001).

Interpretation of recommended risk terms: differences between doctors and lay people

Objectives: To examine doctors' (Experiment 1) and doctors' and lay people's (Experiment 2) interpretations of two sets of recommended verbal labels for conveying information about side effects incidence rates. Method: Both studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which participants were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario involving a prescribed medication that was said to be associated with either mild or severe side effects. The probability of each side effect was described using one of the five descriptors advocated by the European Union (Experiment 1) or one of the six descriptors advocated in Calman's risk scale (Experiment 2), and study participants were required to estimate (numerically) the probability of each side effect occurring. Key findings: Experiment 1 showed that the doctors significantly overestimated the risk of side effects occurring when interpreting the five EU descriptors, compared with the assigned probability ranges. Experiment 2 showed that both groups significantly overestimated risk when given the six Calman descriptors, although the degree of overestimation was not as great for the doctors as for the lay people. Conclusion: On the basis of our findings, we argue that we are still a long way from achieving a standardised language of risk for use by both professionals and the general public, although there might be more potential for use of standardised terms among professionals. In the meantime, the EU and other regulatory bodies and health professionals should be very cautious about advocating the use of particular verbal labels for describing medication side effects.

Second order accurate upwind difference schemes for scalar conservation laws with source terms

A second order accurate, characteristic-based, finite difference scheme is developed for scalar conservation laws with source terms. The scheme is an extension of well-known second order scalar schemes for homogeneous conservation laws. Such schemes have proved immensely powerful when applied to homogeneous systems of conservation laws using flux-difference splitting. Many application areas, however, involve inhomogeneous systems of conservation laws with source terms, and the scheme presented here is applied to such systems in a subsequent paper.

The Namib Sand Sea digital database of aeolian dunes and key forcing variables

A new digital atlas of the geomorphology of the Namib Sand Sea in southern Africa has been developed. This atlas incorporates a number of databases including a digital elevation model (ASTER and SRTM) and other remote sensing databases that cover climate (ERA-40) and vegetation (PAL and GIMMS). A map of dune types in the Namib Sand Sea has been derived from Landsat and CNES/SPOT imagery. The atlas also includes a collation of geochronometric dates, largely derived from luminescence techniques, and a bibliographic survey of the research literature on the geomorphology of the Namib dune system. Together these databases provide valuable information that can be used as a starting point for tackling important questions about the development of the Namib and other sand seas in the past, present and future.