Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40

Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40

Measuring root traits in barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp vulgare and ssp spontaneum) seedlings using gel chambers, soil sacs and X-ray microtomography

Root characteristics of seedlings of five different barley genotypes were analysed in 2D using gel chambers, and in 3D using soil sacs that were destructively harvested and pots of soil that were assessed non-invasively using X-ray microtomography. After 5 days, Chime produced the greatest number of root axes (similar to 6) and Mehola significantly less (similar to 4) in all growing methods. Total root length was longest in GSH01915 and shortest in Mehola for all methods, but both total length and average root diameter were significantly larger for plants grown in gel chambers than those grown in soil. The ranking of particular growth traits (root number, root angular spread) of plants grown in gel plates, soil sacs and X-ray pots was similar, but plants grown in the gel chambers had a different order of ranking for root length to the soil-grown plants. Analysis of angles in soil-grown plants showed that Tadmore had the most even spread of individual roots and Chime had a propensity for non-uniform distribution and root clumping. The roots of Mehola were less well spread than the barley cultivars supporting the suggestion that wild and landrace barleys tend to have a narrower angular spread than modern cultivars. The three dimensional analysis of root systems carried out in this study provides insights into the limitations of screening methods for root traits and useful data for modelling root architecture.

Field trial using bone meal amendments to remediate mine waste derived soil contaminated with zinc, lead and cadmium

Bone meal amendments are being considered as a remediation method for metal-contaminated wastes. In various forms (biogenic, geogenic or synthetic), apatite, the principal mineral constituent of bone, has shown promise as an amendment to remediate metal-contaminated soils via the formation of insoluble phosphates of Pb and possibly other metals. The efficacy of commercially available bovine bone meal in this role was investigated in a field trial at Nenthead, Cumbria with a mine waste derived soil contaminated with Zn, Pb and Cd. Two 5 m(2) plots were set up: the first as a control and the second, a treatment plot where the soil was thoroughly mixed with bone meal to a depth of 50 cm at a soil to amendment ratio of 25:1 by weight. An array of soil solution samplers (Rhizon SMS (TM)) were installed in both plots and the soil pore water was collected and analysed for Ca, Cd, Zn and Pb regularly over a period of 2 a. Concurrently with the field trial, a laboratory trial with 800 mm high and 100 mm wide leaching Columns Was conducted using identical samplers and with soil from the held site. A substantial release of Zn, Pb, Cd and Ca was observed associated with the bone meal treatment. This release was transient in the case of the leaching columns, and showed seasonal variation in the case of the field trial. It is proposed that this effect resulted from metal complexation with organic acids released during breakdown of the bone meal organic fraction and was facilitated by the relatively high soil pH of 7.6-8.0. Even after this transient release effect had subsided or when incinerated bone meal was substituted in order to eliminate the organic fraction, no detectable decrease in dissolved metals was observed and no P was detected in solution, in contrast with an earlier small column laboratory study. It is concluded that due to the relative insolubility of apatite at above-neutral pH, the rate of supply of phosphate to soil solution was insufficient to result in significant precipitation of metal phosphates and that this may limit the effectiveness of the method to more acidic soils. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil disturbed using a strip tillage implement on a range of soil types and the effects on sugar beet establishment

The area of soil disturbed using a single tine is well documented. However, modern strip tillage implements using a tine and disc design have not been assessed in the UK or in mainland Europe. Using a strip tillage implement has potential benefits for European agriculture where economic returns and sustainability are key issues. Using a strip tillage system a narrow zone is cultivated leaving most of the straw residue on the soil surface. Small field plot experiments were undertaken on three soil types and the operating parameters of forward speed, tine depth and tine design were investigated together with measurements of seedbed tilth and crop emergence. The type of tine used was found to be the primary factor in achieving the required volume of disturbance within a narrow zone whilst maintaining an area of undisturbed soil with straw residue on the surface. The winged tine produced greater disturbance at a given depth compared with the knife tine. Increasing forward speed did not consistently increase the volume of disturbance. In a sandy clay loam the tilth created and emergence of sugar beet by strip tillage and ploughing were similar but on a sandy loam the strip tillage treatments generally gave a finer tilth but poorer emergence particularly at greater working depth.

The evaluation of CloudSat and CALIPSO ice microphysical products using ground-based cloud radar and lidar observations

In this paper, the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total number concentration) derived from 3 yr of ground-based radar–lidar retrievals from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility in Darwin, Australia, are compared with the same properties derived using the official CloudSat microphysical retrieval methods and from a simpler statistical method using radar reflectivity and air temperature. It is shown that the two official CloudSat microphysical products (2B-CWC-RO and 2B-CWC-RVOD) are statistically virtually identical. The comparison with the ground-based radar–lidar retrievals shows that all satellite methods produce ice water contents and extinctions in a much narrower range than the ground-based method and overestimate the mean vertical profiles of microphysical parameters below 10-km height by over a factor of 2. Better agreements are obtained above 10-km height. Ways to improve these estimates are suggested in this study. Effective radii retrievals from the standard CloudSat algorithms are characterized by a large positive bias of 8–12 μm. A sensitivity test shows that in response to such a bias the cloud longwave forcing is increased from 44.6 to 46.9 W m−2 (implying an error of about 5%), whereas the negative cloud shortwave forcing is increased from −81.6 to −82.8 W m−2. Further analysis reveals that these modest effects (although not insignificant) can be much larger for optically thick clouds. The statistical method using CloudSat reflectivities and air temperature was found to produce inaccurate mean vertical profiles and probability distribution functions of effective radius. This study also shows that the retrieval of the total number concentration needs to be improved in the official CloudSat microphysical methods prior to a quantitative use for the characterization of tropical ice clouds. Finally, the statistical relationship used to produce ice water content from extinction and air temperature obtained by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite is evaluated for tropical ice clouds. It is suggested that the CALIPSO ice water content retrieval is robust for tropical ice clouds, but that the temperature dependence of the statistical relationship used should be slightly refined to better reproduce the radar–lidar retrievals.

A cognitive and psycholinguistic investigation of neologisms

Background: Jargon aphasia with neologisms (i.e., novel nonword utterances) is a challenging language disorder that lacks a definitive theoretical description as well as clear treatment recommendations (Marshall, 2006). Aim: The aims of this two part investigation were to determine the source of neologisms in an individual with jargon aphasia (FF), to identify potential facilitatory semantic and/or phonological cuing effects in picture naming, and to determine whether the timing of the cues relative to the target picture mediated the cuing advantage. Methods and Procedures: FF’s underlying linguistic deficits were determined using several cognitive and linguistic tests. A series of computerized naming experiments using a modified version of the 175 item-Philadelphia Naming Test (Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) manipulated the cue type (semantic versus phonological) and relatedness (related versus unrelated). In a follow-up experiment, the relative timing of phonological cues was manipulated to test the effect of timing on the cuing advantage. The accuracy of naming responses and error patterns were analyzed. Outcome and Results: FF’s performance on the linguistic and cognitive test battery revealed a severe naming impairment with relatively spared word and nonword repetition, auditory comprehension of words and monitoring, and fairly well preserved semantic abilities. This performance profile was used to evaluate various explanations for neologisms including a loss of phonological codes, monitoring failure, and impairments in semantic system. The primary locus of his deficit appears to involve the connection between semantics to phonology, specifically, when word production involves accessing the phonological forms following semantic access. FF showed a significant cuing advantage only for phonological cues in picture naming, particularly when the cue preceded or coincided with the onset of the target picture. Conclusions: When integrated with previous findings, the results from this study suggest that the core deficit of this and at least some other jargon aphasics is in the connection from semantics to phonology. The facilitative advantage of phonological cues could potentially be exploited in future clinical and research studies to test the effectiveness of these cues for enhancing naming performance in individuals like FF.

Better cross hedges with composite hedging? Hedging equity portfolios using financial and commodity futures

Unless a direct hedge is available, cross hedging must be used. In such circumstances portfolio theory implies that a composite hedge (the use of two or more hedging instruments to hedge a single spot position) will be beneficial. The study and use of composite hedging has been neglected; possibly because it requires the estimation of two or more hedge ratios. This paper demonstrates a statistically significant increase in out-of-sample effectiveness from the composite hedging of the Amex Oil Index using S&P500 and New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures. This conclusion is robust to the technique used to estimate the hedge ratios, and to allowance for transactions costs, dividends and the maturity of the futures contracts.

Pricing and hedging short sterling options using artificial neural networks

This paper compares the performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) with that of the modified Black model in both pricing and hedging Short Sterling options. Using high frequency data, standard and hybrid ANNs are trained to generate option prices. The hybrid ANN is significantly superior to both the modified Black model and the standard ANN in pricing call and put options. Hedge ratios for hedging Short Sterling options positions using Short Sterling futures are produced using the standard and hybrid ANN pricing models, the modified Black model, and also standard and hybrid ANNs trained directly on the hedge ratios. The performance of hedge ratios from ANNs directly trained on actual hedge ratios is significantly superior to those based on a pricing model, and to the modified Black model.

Flow synthesis using gaseous ammonia in a Teflon AF-2400 tube-in-tube reactor: Paal–Knorr pyrrole formation and gas concentration measurement by inline flow titration

Using a simple and accessible Teflon AF-2400 based tube-intube reactor, a series of pyrroles were synthesised in flow using the Paal–Knorr reaction of 1,4-diketones with gaseous ammonia. An inline flow titration technique allowed measurement of the ammonia concentration and its relationship to residence time and temperature.

Synthesis of prebiotic galactooligosaccharides from lactose using bifidobacterial β-galactosidase (BbgIV) immobilised on DEAE-Cellulose, Q-Sepharose and amino-ethyl agarose

The bifidobacterial β-galactosidase BbgIV was immobilised on DEAE-Cellulose and Q-Sepharose via ionic binding and on amino-ethyl- and glyoxal-agarose via covalent attachment, and was then used to catalyse the synthesis of galactooligosaccharides (GOS). The immobilisation yield exceeded 90 % using ionic binding, while it was low using aminoethyl agarose (25 – 28 %) and very low using glyoxal agarose (< 3 %). This was due to the mild conditions and absence of chemical reagents in ionic binding, compared to covalent attachment. The maximum GOS yield obtained using DEAE-Cellulose and Q-Sepharose was similar to that obtained using free BbgIV (49 – 53 %), indicating the absence of diffusion limitation and mass transfer issues. For amino-ethyl agarose, however, the GOS yield obtained was lower (42 – 44 %) compared to that obtained using free BbgIV. All the supports tried significantly (P < 0.05) increased the BbgIV operational stability and the GOS synthesis productivity up to 55 °C. Besides, six successive GOS synthesis batches were performed using BbgIV immobilised on Q-Sepharose; all resulted in similar GOS yields, indicating the possibility of developing a robust synthesis process. Overall, the GOS synthesis operation performance using BbgIV was improved by immobilising the enzyme onto solid supports, in particular on Q-Sepharose

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3 data

We develop a method to derive aerosol properties over land surfaces using combined spectral and angular information, such as available from ESA Sentinel-3 mission, to be launched in 2015. A method of estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3. The method aims to improve the estimation of AOD, and to explore the estimation of fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA) over land surfaces by inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model. The surface model includes a general physical model of angular and spectral surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values to the physical model. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground-based sun photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.