Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

The Natural History of Slapton Ley Nature Reserve XVIII: nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment - an export coefficient modelling approach

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment of Slapton Ley, a small coastal lake in SW England, were calculated using an adaptation of a model developed by Jorgensen (1980). A detailed survey of the catchment revealed that its land use is dominated by both permanent and temporary grassland (respectively 38 and 32% of its total area), and that the remainder is made up of the cultivation of cereals and field vegetables, and market gardening. Livestock numbers in the catchment constitute ca. 6600 head of cattle, 10,000 sheep, 590 pigs, 1700 poultry and 58 horses. The permanent human population of the area is ca. 2000, served by two small gravity-fed sewage treatment works (STWs). Inputs to, and losses from, farmland in the catchment were computed using Jorgensen’s model, and coefficients derived from the data of Cooke (1976), Gostick (1982), Rast and Lee (1983) and Vollenweider (1968). Allowing for outputs from STWs, the total annual external load of N and P upon Slapton Ley is 160 t (35 kg ha-1) a-1 N, and 4.8 t (1.05 kg ha-1) a-1 P. Accordingly to Vollenweider (1968, 1975), such loadings exceed OECD permissible level by a factor of ca. 50 in the case of N, and ca. 5 in that of P. In order to reduce nutrient loads, attention would need to be paid to both STW and agricultural sources.

To what extent are EU steel companies susceptible to competitive loss due to climate policy?

In recognition of their competitive vulnerability, a set of special rules have been devised for managing sectors such as steel and cement within the EU ETS. These rules basically seek to set sector specific performance benchmarks and reward top performers. However, the steel sector as a whole will receive the vast majority of its allowances for free in Phase III. Perceptions of competitive vulnerability have been largely based on inherently hypothetical analyses which rely heavily on counterfactual scenario and abatement cost estimates often provided by firms themselves. This paper diverges from these approaches by providing a qualitative assessment of the two key reasons underpinning the competitive vulnerability argument of the EU Steel Companies based on interviews and case study involving the three largest producers of steel within the EU – AcerlorMittal, Corus, and ThyssenKrupp. We find that these arguments provide only partial and weak justifications for competitive loss and discriminatory treatment in the EUETS. This strategy is difficult to counter by governments due to information asymmetry; and it appears to have proved very successful insofar as it has helped the industry to achieve free allocation in Phases I-III of EU ETS by playing up the risk of carbon leakage.

When do export subsidies have a redistributional role?

If an export subsidy is efficient, that is, has a surplus-transfer role, then there exists an implicit function relating the optimal level of the subsidy to the income target in the agricultural sector. If an export subsidy is inefficient no such function exists. We show that dependence exists in large-export equilibrium, not in small-export equilibrium and show that these results remain robust to concerns about domestic tax distortions. The failure of previous work to produce this result stems from its neglect of the income constraint on producer surplus in the programming problem transferring surplusfrom consumersand taxpayers to farmers.

When do export subsidies have a redistributional role? Reply

Our differences are three. The first arises from the belief that "... a nonzero value for the optimally chosen policy instrument implies that the instrument is efficient for redistribution" (Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, p. 543, paragraph 3). Consider the two equations: (1) o* = f(P3) and (2) = -f(3) ++r h* (a, P3) representing the solution to the problem of maximizing weighted, Marshallian surplus using, simultaneously, a per-unit border intervention, 9, and a per-unit domestic intervention, wr. In the solution, parameter ot denotes the weight applied to producer surplus; parameter p denotes the weight applied to government revenues; consumer surplus is implicitly weighted one; and the country in question is small in the sense that it is unable to affect world price by any of its domestic adjustments (see the Appendix). Details of the forms of the functions f((P) and h(ot, p) are easily derived, but what matters in the context of Alston, Smith, and Vercammen's Comment is: Redistributivep referencest hatf avorp roducers are consistent with higher values "alpha," and whereas the optimal domestic intervention, 7r*, has both "alpha and beta effects," the optimal border intervention, r*, has only a "beta effect,"-it does not have a redistributional role. Garth Holloway is reader in agricultural economics and statistics, Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading. The author is very grateful to Xavier Irz, Bhavani Shankar, Chittur Srinivasan, Colin Thirtle, and Richard Tiffin for their comments and their wisdom; and to Mario Mazzochi, Marinos Tsigas, and Cal Turvey for their scholarship, including help in tracking down a fairly complete collection of the papers that cite Alston and Hurd. They are not responsible for any errors or omissions. Note, in equation (1), that the border intervention is positive whenever a distortion exists because 8 > 0 implies 3 - 1 + 8 > 1 and, thus, f((P) > 0 (see Appendix). Using Alston, Smith, and Vercammen's definition, the instrument is now "efficient," and therefore has a redistributive role. But now, suppose that the distortion is removed so that 3 - 1 + 8 = 1, 8 = 0, and consequently the border intervention is zero. According to Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, the instrument is now "inefficient" and has no redistributive role. The reader will note that this thought experiment has said nothing about supporting farm incomes, and so has nothing whatsoever to do with efficient redistribution. Of course, the definition is false. It follows that a domestic distortion arising from the "excess-burden argument" 3 = 1 + 8, 8 > 0 does not make an export subsidy "efficient." The export subsidy, having only a "beta effect," does not have a redistributional role. The second disagreement emerges from the comment that Holloway "... uses an idiosyncratic definition of the relevant objective function of the government (Alston, Smith, and Vercammen, p. 543, paragraph 2)." The objective function that generates equations (1) and (2) (see the Appendix) is the same as the objective function used by Gardner (1995) when he first questioned Alston, Carter, and Smith's claim that a "domestic distortion can make a border intervention efficient in transferring surplus from consumers and taxpayers to farmers." The objective function used by Gardner (1995) is the same objective function used in the contributions that precede it and thus defines the literature on the debate about borderversus- domestic intervention (Streeten; Yeh; Paarlberg 1984, 1985; Orden; Gardner 1985). The objective function in the latter literature is the same as the one implied in another literature that originates from Wallace and includes most notably Gardner (1983), but also Alston and Hurd. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 86(2) (May 2004): 549-552 Copyright 2004 American Agricultural Economics Association This content downloaded on Tue, 15 Jan 2013 07:58:41 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 550 May 2004 Amer. J. Agr. Econ. The objective function in Holloway is this same objective function-it is, of course, Marshallian surplus.1 The third disagreement concerns scholarship. The Comment does not seem to be cognizant of several important papers, especially Bhagwati and Ramaswami, and Bhagwati, both of which precede Corden (1974, 1997); but also Lipsey and Lancaster, and Moschini and Sckokai; one important aspect of Alston and Hurd; and one extremely important result in Holloway. This oversight has some unfortunate repercussions. First, it misdirects to the wrong origins of intellectual property. Second, it misleads about the appropriateness of some welfare calculations. Third, it prevents Alston, Smith, and Vercammen from linking a finding in Holloway (pp. 242-43) with an old theorem (Lipsey and Lancaster) that settles the controversy (Alston, Carter, and Smith 1993, 1995; Gardner 1995; and, presently, Alston, Smith, and Vercammen) about the efficiency of border intervention in the presence of domestic distortions.

Climate change policy and business climate strategies: EU cement companies' response to climate change and barriers against action

The paper provides a descriptive analysis of the carbon management activities of the cement industry in Europe based on a study involving the four largest producers of cement in the world. Based on this analysis, the paper explores the relationship between managerial perception and strategy with particular focus on the impact of government regulation and competitive dynamics. The research is based on extensive documentary analysis and in-depth interviews with senior managers from the four companies who have been responsible for and/or involved in the development of climate change strategies. We find that whilst the cement industry has embraced climate change and the need for action, their remains much scope for action in their carbon management activities with current effort concentration on hedging practices and win-win efficiency programs. Managers perceive that inadequate and unfavourable regulatory structure is the key barrier against more action to achieve emission reduction within the industry. EU Cement companies are also shifting their CO2 emissions to less developed countries of the South.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: SWOT analysis of China

Construction professional services (CPSs), such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right but also have a knock-on effect on other businesses, such as construction and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to these knowledge-intensive CPS areas. Yet CPSs represent a research frontier that has received scant attention. This research aims to enrich the body of knowledge on CPSs by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPSs (CCPSs) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPSs present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolution. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a major CCPS strength. An opportunity for CCPSs is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors; by partnering with them CCPSs can better establish themselves in the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study on the performance of CCPSs in the international marketplace. The research is conducted at an opportune time, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and, potentially, professional services. It adds new insights to the knowledge body of CPSs and provides valuable references to other countries faced with the challenge of developing CPS business efficiently in the international market.

Understanding absorptive capacity in Malaysian small and medium sized (SME) construction companies

Purpose – The construction industry is a very important part of the Malaysian economy. The government's aim is to make the industry more productive, efficient and safe. Small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are at the core of the Malaysian construction industry and account for about 90 per cent of companies undertaking construction work. One of the main challenges faced by the Malaysian construction industry is the ability to absorb new knowledge and technology and to implement it in the construction phase. The purpose of this paper is to consider absorptive capacity in Malaysian construction SMEs in rural areas. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted in three stages: first, understanding the Malaysian construction industry; second, a literature review on the issues related to absorptive capacity and discussions with the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB); and third, multiple case studies in five construction SMEs operating in a rural area to validate the factors influencing absorptive capacity. Findings – Nine key factors were identified influencing absorptive capacity in Malaysian construction SMEs operating in rural areas. These factors involved: cost and affordability; availability and supply; demand; infrastructure; policies and regulations; labour readiness; workforce attitude and motivation; communication and sources of new knowledge and; culture. Originality/value – The key factors influencing absorptive capacity presented in this paper are based on validation from the case studies in five construction SMEs in Malaysia. The research focuses on how they operate in rural areas; however, the research results have wider application than just Malaysia. The key factors identified as influencing absorptive capacity can serve as a basis for considering knowledge absorption in the wider context by SMEs in other developing countries.

Developing construction professional services in the international market: a SWOT analysis of China

In contrast to their bustling construction counterparts, Chinese construction professional services (CPS) such as architecture, engineering, and consultancy, seem still to be stagnant in the international market. CPS are not only high value-added profit centers in their own right, but also have a knock-on effect on subsequent businesses such as construction, and the export of materials and machinery. Arguably, competition in the international construction market has shifted to knowledge-intensive CPS. Yet,CPS represent a research area that has been paid scant attention. This research aims to add to the body of knowledge of CPS by examining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of Chinese CPS (CCPS) in the international context. It does so by triangulating theories with quantitative and qualitative data gleaned from yearbooks, annual reports, interviews, seminars, and interactions with managers in major CCPS companies. It is found that CCPS present both strengths and weaknesses in talents, administration systems, and development strategies in dealing with the external opportunities and threats brought about by globalization and market evolvement. Low price, which has helped the Chinese construction business to succeed in the international market, is also a CCPS major strength. An opportunity for CCPS is the relatively strong delivery capability possessed by Chinese contractors. By partnering with them CCPS can better edge into the international arena. This is probably the first ever comprehensive study in investigating the performance of CCPS in the international market. The research is also timely, particularly when the world is witnessing the burgeoning force of Chinese businesses in many areas including manufacturing, construction, and potentially, professional services.

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

The performance effects of composition changes on sector specific stock indices: The case of European listed real estate

This paper examines the impact of changes in the composition of real estate stock indices, considering companies both joining and leaving the indices. Stocks that are newly included not only see a short-term increase in their share price, but trading volumes increase in a permanent fashion following the event. This highlights the importance of indices in not only a benchmarking context but also in enhancing investor awareness and aiding liquidity. By contrast, as anticipated, the share prices of firms removed from indices fall around the time of the index change. The fact that the changes in share prices, either upwards for index inclusions or downwards for deletions, are generally not reversed, would indicate that the movements are not purely due to price pressure, but rather are more consistent with the information content hypothesis. There is no evidence, however, that index changes significantly affect the volatility of price changes or their operating performances as measured by their earnings per share.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

A trading strategy based on the lead–lag relationship between the spot index and futures contract for the FTSE 100

This paper examines the lead–lag relationship between the FTSE 100 index and index futures price employing a number of time series models. Using 10-min observations from June 1996–1997, it is found that lagged changes in the futures price can help to predict changes in the spot price. The best forecasting model is of the error correction type, allowing for the theoretical difference between spot and futures prices according to the cost of carry relationship. This predictive ability is in turn utilised to derive a trading strategy which is tested under real-world conditions to search for systematic profitable trading opportunities. It is revealed that although the model forecasts produce significantly higher returns than a passive benchmark, the model was unable to outperform the benchmark after allowing for transaction costs.

Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark