Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent–past (1961–2000) and future (2041–2070) climates. For recent–past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent–past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day−1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day−1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day−1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn–spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections.

A comparison between ion characteristics observed by the POLAR and DMSP spacecraft in the high-latitude magnetosphere

We study here the injection and transport of ions in the convection-dominated region of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The total ion counts from the CAMMICE MICS instrument aboard the POLAR spacecraft are used to generate occurrence probability distributions of magnetospheric ion populations. MICS ion spectra are characterised by both the peak in the differential energy flux, and the average energy of ions striking the detector. The former permits a comparison with the Stubbs et al. (2001) survey of He2+ ions of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere. The latter can address the occurrences of various classifications of precipitating particle fluxes observed in the topside ionosphere by DMSP satellites (Newell and Meng, 1992). The peak energy occurrences are consistent with our earlier work, including the dawn-dusk asymmetry with enhanced occurrences on the dawn flank at low energies, switching to the dusk flank at higher energies. The differences in the ion energies observed in these two studies can be explained by drift orbit effects and acceleration processes at the magnetopause, and in the tail current sheet. Near noon at average ion energies of _1 keV, the cusp and open LLBL occur further poleward here than in the Newell and Meng survey, probably due to convectionrelated time-of-flight effects. An important new result is that the pre-noon bias previously observed in the LLBL is most likely due to the component of this population on closed field lines, formed largely by low energy ions drifting earthward from the tail. There is no evidence here of mass and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the LLBL by nonreconnection coupling. At higher energies (_2–20 keV), we observe ions mapping to the auroral oval and can distinguish between the boundary and central plasma sheets. We show that ions at these energies relate to a transition from dawnward to duskward dominated flow, this is evidence of how ion drift orbits in the tail influence the location and behaviour of the plasma populations in the magnetosphere.

Energy and pitch-angle dispersions of LLBL/cusp ions seen at middle altitudes: predictions by the open magnetosphere model

Numerical simulations are presented of the ion distribution functions seen by middle-altitude spacecraft in the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and cusp regions when reconnection is, or has recently been, taking place at the equatorial magnetopause. From the evolution of the distribution function with time elapsed since the field line was opened, both the observed energy/observation-time and pitch-angle/energy dispersions are well reproduced. Distribution functions showing a mixture of magnetosheath and magnetospheric ions, often thought to be a signature of the LLBL, are found on newly opened field lines as a natural consequence of the magnetopause effects on the ions and their flight times. In addition, it is shown that the extent of the source region of the magnetosheath ions that are detected by a satellite is a function of the sensitivity of the ion instrument . If the instrument one-count level is high (and/or solar-wind densities are low), the cusp ion precipitation detected comes from a localised region of the mid-latitude magnetopause (around the magnetic cusp), even though the reconnection takes place at the equatorial magnetopause. However, if the instrument sensitivity is high enough, then ions injected from a large segment of the dayside magnetosphere (in the relevant hemisphere) will be detected in the cusp. Ion precipitation classed as LLBL is shown to arise from the low-latitude magnetopause, irrespective of the instrument sensitivity. Adoption of threshold flux definitions has the same effect as instrument sensitivity in artificially restricting the apparent source region.

The excitation of plasma convection in the high-latitude ionosphere

Recent observations of ionospheric flows by ground-based radars, in particular by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) facility using the “Polar” experiment, together with previous analyses of the response of geomagnetic disturbance to variations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), suggest that convection in the high-latitude ionosphere should be considered to be the sum of two intrinsically time-dependent patterns, one driven by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling at the dayside magnetopause, the other by the release of energy in the geomagnetic tail (mainly by dayside and nightside reconnection, respectively). The flows driven by dayside coupling are largest on the dayside, where they usually dominate, are associated with an expanding polar cap area, and are excited and decay on ∼10-min time scales following southward and northward turnings of the IMF, respectively. The latter finding indicates that the production of new open flux at the dayside magnetopause excites magnetospheric and ionospheric flow only for a short interval, ∼10 min, such that the flow driven by this source subsequently decays on this time scale unless maintained by the production of more open flux tubes. Correspondingly, the flows excited by the release of energy in the tail, mainly during substorms, are largest on the nightside, are associated with a contracting polar cap boundary, and are excited on ∼1-hour time scales following a southward turn of the IMF. In general, the total ionospheric flow will be the sum of the flows produced by these two sources, such that due to their different response times to changes in the IMF, considerable variations in the flow pattern can occur for a given direction and strength of the IMF. Consequently, the ionospheric electric field cannot generally be regarded as arising from a simple mapping of the solar wind electric field along open flux tubes.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

An experiment on energy-saving competition with socially responsible consumers: opening the black box

We present results from experimental price-setting oligopolies in which green firms undertake different levels of energy-saving investments motivated by public subsidies and demand-side advantages. We find that consumers reveal higher willingness to pay for greener sellers’ products. This observation in conjunction to the fact that greener sellers set higher prices is compatible with the use and interpretation of energy-saving behaviour as a differentiation strategy. However, sellers do not exploit the resulting advantage through sufficiently high price-cost margins, because they seem trapped into “run to stay still” competition. Regarding the use of public subsidies to energy-saving sellers we uncover an undesirable crowding-out effect of consumers’ intrinsic tendency to support green manufacturers. Namely, consumers may be less willing to support a green seller whose energy-saving strategy yields a direct financial benefit. Finally, we disentangle two alternative motivations for consumer’s attractions to pro-social firms; first, the self-interested recognition of the firm’s contribution to the public and private welfare and, second, the need to compensate a firm for the cost entailed in each pro-social action. Our results show the prevalence of the former over the latter.

Recent developments in nanostructured materials for high-performance thermoelectrics

This highlight discusses recent trends in the search for new high-efficiency thermoelectric materials. Thermoelectric materials offer considerable attractions in the pursuit of a more efficient use of existing energy resources, as they may be used to construct power-generation devices that allow useful electrical power to be extracted from otherwise waste heat. Here, we focus on the significant enhancements in thermoelectric performance that have been achieved through nanostructuring. The principal factor behind the improved performance appears to be increased phonon scattering at interfaces. This results in a substantial reduction in the lattice contribution to thermal conductivity, a low value of which is a key requirement for improved thermoelectric performance.

Thermoelectric materials: a new rapid synthesis process for non-toxic and high-performance tetrahedrite compounds

The feasibility to synthesize, in large quantity, pure and non-toxic tetrahedrite compounds using high-energy mechanical-alloying from only elemental precursors is reported in the present paper for the first time. Our processing technique allows a better control of the final product composition and leads to high thermoelectric performances (ZT of 0.75 at 700 K), comparable to that reported on sealed tube synthesis samples. Combined with spark plasma sintering, the production of highly pure and dense samples is achieved in a very short time, at least 8 times shorter than in conventional liquid-solid-vapor synthesis process. The process described in this paper is a promising way to produce high performance tetrahedrite materials for cost-effective and large-scale thermoelectric applications.

Ball milling as an effective route for the preparation of doped bornite: synthesis, stability and thermoelectric properties

Bornite, Cu5FeS4, is a naturally-occuring mineral with an ultralow thermal conductivity and potential for thermoelectric power generation. We describe here a new, easy and scalable route to synthesise bornite, together with the thermoelectric behaviour of manganese-substituted derivatives, Cu5Fe1-xMnxS4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.10). The electrical and thermal transport properties of Cu5Fe1-xMnxS4 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.10), which are p-type semiconductors, were measured from room temperature to 573 K. The stability of bornite was investigated by thermogravimetric analysis under inert and oxidising atmospheres. Repeated measurements of the electrical transport properties confirm that bornite is stable up to 580 K under an inert atmosphere, while heating to 890 K results in rapid degradation. Ball milling leads to a substantial improvement in the thermoelectric figure of merit of unsusbtituted bornite (ZT = 0.55 at 543 K), when compared to bornite prepared by conventional high-temperature synthesis (ZT < 0.3 at 543 K). Manganese-substituted samples have a ZT comparable to that of unsubstituted bornite.

Effect of maternal protein restriction during pregnancy and postweaning high-fat feeding of diet-induced thermogenesis in adult mouse offspring

Purpose Prenatal undernutrition followed by postweaning feeding of a high-fat diet results in obesity in the adult offspring. In this study, we investigated whether diet-induced thermogenesis is altered as a result of such nutritional mismatch. Methods Female MF-1 mice were fed a normal protein (NP, 18 % casein) or a protein-restricted (PR, 9 % casein) diet throughout pregnancy and lactation. After weaning, male offspring of both groups were fed either a high-fat diet (HF; 45 % kcal fat) or standard chow (C, 7 % kcal fat) to generate the NP/C, NP/HF, PR/C and PR/HF adult offspring groups (n = 7–11 per group). Results PR/C and NP/C offspring have similar body weights at 30 weeks of age. Postweaning HF feeding resulted in significantly heavier NP/HF offspring (P < 0.01), but not in PR/HF offspring, compared with their chow-fed counterparts. However, the PR/HF offspring exhibited greater adiposity (P < 0.01) v the NP/HF group. The NP/HF offspring had increased energy expenditure and increased mRNA expression of uncoupling protein-1 and β-3 adrenergic receptor in the interscapular brown adipose tissue (iBAT) compared with the NP/C mice (both at P < 0.01). No such differences in energy expenditure and iBAT gene expression were observed between the PR/HF and PR/C offspring. Conclusions These data suggest that a mismatch between maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation, and the postweaning diet of the offspring, can attenuate diet-induced thermogenesis in the iBAT, resulting in the development of obesity in adulthood.

Decoupling of building energy use and climate

Energy use intensity (EUI) and climate have a well documented correlation, which is generally applied in building energy management. Green buildings have sought to greatly reduce energy consumption and a number of examples are documented in the literature. A sample of high performance buildings constructed in a variety of global locations is analyzed here, and provides evidence that measures to reduce energy consumption have reduced EUI to the point where its correlation with heating degree days is no longer apparent. This result suggests that end-user behaviour is the next major hurdle in lowering the energy consumption of greener buildings.

Myostatin is a key mediator between energy metabolism and endurance capacity of skeletal muscle

Myostatin (Mstn) participates in the regulation of skeletal muscle size and has emerged as a regulator of muscle metabolism. Here, we hypothesized that lack of myostatin profoundly depresses oxidative phosphorylation-dependent muscle function. Toward this end, we explored Mstn/ mice as a model for the constitutive absence of myostatin and AAV-mediated overexpression of myostatin propeptide as a model of myostatin blockade in adult wild-type mice. We show that muscles from Mstn/ mice, although larger and stronger, fatigue extremely rapidly. Myostatin deficiency shifts muscle from aerobic toward anaerobic energy metabolism, as evidenced by decreased mitochondrial respiration, reduced expression of PPAR transcriptional regulators, increased enolase activity, and exercise-induced lactic acidosis. As a consequence, constitutively reduced myostatin signaling diminishes exercise capacity, while the hypermuscular state of Mstn/ mice increases oxygen consumption and the energy cost of running. We wondered whether these results are the mere consequence of the congenital fiber-type switch toward a glycolytic phenotype of constitutive Mstn/ mice. Hence, we overexpressed myostatin propeptide in adult mice, which did not affect fiber-type distribution, while nonetheless causing increased muscle fatigability, diminished exercise capacity, and decreased Pparb/d and Pgc1a expression. In conclusion, our results suggest that myostatin endows skeletal muscle with high oxidative capacity and low fatigability, thus regulating the delicate balance between muscle mass, muscle force, energy metabolism, and endurance capacity.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

Do jumps matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from energy markets

This paper characterizes the dynamics of jumps and analyzes their importance for volatility forecasting. Using high-frequency data on four prominent energy markets, we perform a model-free decomposition of realized variance into its continuous and discontinuous components. We find strong evidence of jumps in energy markets between 2007 and 2012. We then investigate the importance of jumps for volatility forecasting. To this end, we estimate and analyze the predictive ability of several Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) models that explicitly capture the dynamics of jumps. Conducting extensive in-sample and out-of-sample analyses, we establish that explicitly modeling jumps does not significantly improve forecast accuracy. Our results are broadly consistent across our four energy markets, forecasting horizons, and loss functions