The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 - Rainfall periods and flood development

Record-breaking rainfall amounts and intensities were observed at several raingauges in central Europe during the first half of August 2002 (Fig. 1). They produced flash floods in small rivers in the Erz Mountains, the Bohemian Forest and in Lower Austria (see Fig. 2), followed by record-breaking floods of larger rivers fed from these areas. The Vltava submerged parts of the city of Prague on 13± 15 August, and subsequently the Elbe flooded parts of Dresden and further villages and towns located downstream. The gauge level of 9.40m measured at Dresden on 17 August 2002 is the highest level since 1275, exceeding the former maximum level of 8.77m recorded in 1845 (Grollmann and Simon 2002). Parts of the Danube catchment were also affected by severe flooding. There were 100 fatalities connected with the floods in central Europe, and the economic loss is estimated at 9 billion Euros for Germany (German government’s estimate), 3 billion Euros for Austria, and 2.5 billion Euros for the Czech Republic (estimates from Boyle 2002). The event thus replaced the European winter storm Lothar of December 1999 (Ulbrich et al. 2001) as the most expensive weather-related catastrophe in Europe in recent decades (see Cornford 2002). In this study, we give an overview of the exceptional rainfall experienced over wide areas on 12/13 August 2002, and the resulting floods. Further events during early August 2002, in particular the event on 6/7 August in Lower Austria, are briefly mentioned.

Direct experimental evidence that early-life farm environment influences regulation of immune responses

Background: In mammals, early-life environmental variations appear to affect microbial colonization and therefore competent immune development, and exposure to farm environments in infants has been inversely correlated with allergy development. Modelling these effects using manipulation of neonatal rodents is difficult due to their dependency on the mother, but the relatively independent piglet is increasingly identified as a valuable translational model for humans. This study was designed to correlate immune regulation in piglets with early-life environment. Methods: Piglets were nursed by their mother on a commercial farm, while isolatorreared siblings were formula fed. Fluorescence immunohistology was used to quantify T-reg and effector T-cell populations in the intestinal lamina propria and the systemic response to food proteins was quantified by capture ELISA. Results: There was more CD4+ and CD4+CD25+ effector T-cell staining in the intestinal mucosa of the isolator-reared piglets compared with their farm-reared counterparts. In contrast, these isolator-reared piglets had a significantly reduced CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T-cell population compared to farm-reared littermates, resulting in a significantly higher T-reg-to-effector ratio in the farm animals. Consistent with these findings, isolator-reared piglets had an increased serum IgG anti-soya response to novel dietary soya protein relative to farm-reared piglets. Conclusion: Here, we provide the first direct evidence, derived from intervention, that components of the early-life environment present on farms profoundly affects both local development of regulatory components of the mucosal immune system and immune responses to food proteins at weaning. We propose that neonatal piglets provide a tractable model which allows maternal and treatment effects to be statistically separated.

Restricting microbial exposure in early life negates the immune benefits associated with gut colonization in environments of high microbial diversity

Background: Acquisition of the intestinal microbiota in early life corresponds with the development of the mucosal immune system. Recent work on caesarean-delivered infants revealed that early microbial composition is influenced by birthing method and environment. Furthermore, we have confirmed that early-life environment strongly influences both the adult gut microbiota and development of the gut immune system. Here, we address the impact of limiting microbial exposure after initial colonization on the development of adult gut immunity. Methodology/Principal Findings: Piglets were born in indoor or outdoor rearing units, allowing natural colonization in the immediate period after birth, prior to transfer to high-health status isolators. Strikingly, gut closure and morphological development were strongly affected by isolator-rearing, independent of indoor or outdoor origins of piglets. Isolator-reared animals showed extensive vacuolation and disorganization of the gut epithelium, inferring that normal gut closure requires maturation factors present in maternal milk. Although morphological maturation and gut closure were delayed in isolatorreared animals, these hard-wired events occurred later in development. Type I IFN, IL-22, IL-23 and Th17 pathways were increased in indoor-isolator compared to outdoor-isolator animals during early life, indicating greater immune activation in pigs originating from indoor environments reflecting differences in the early microbiota. This difference was less apparent later in development due to enhanced immune activation and convergence of the microbiota in all isolator-reared animals. This correlated with elevation of Type I IFN pathways in both groups, although T cell pathways were still more affected in indoor-reared animals. Conclusions/Significance: Environmental factors, in particular microbial exposure, influence expression of a large number of immune-related genes. However, the homeostatic effects of microbial colonization in outdoor environments require sustained microbial exposure throughout development. Gut development in high-hygiene environments negatively impacts on normal succession of the gut microbiota and promotes innate immune activation which may impair immune homeostasis.

Building climate resilience: lessons of early warning in Africa

Given the high levels of uncertainty and substantial variability in local weather and climate, what constitutes successful adaptation for the 800 million food-insecure people in Africa? In this context there is a need for building climate resilience through effective early warning systems, bringing real-time monitoring and decision-making together with stakeholders. The chapter presents two effective operational early warning systems in Africa: The Radio and Internet (RANET) network and the Rainwatch project. These examples were developed in partnership with local climate scientists and tailored to local development needs, enabled and encouraged with only modest international support. They deliver important lessons about how to prepare for crises using simple real-time monitoring. They also help us identify characteristics of managing for resilience in practice. The chapter concludes that successful adaptation requires adaptive, flexible, linked institutions, together with ground-based collaboration and practical tools. In the context of early warning three features stand out that make these systems successful: effective communication of current weather and climate information, a key individual within a bridging organization with the ability to navigate the governance systems, and sufficient time for innovation development.

Precision placement of fertiliser for optimising the early nutrition of vegetable crops: a review of the implications for the yield and quality of crops, and their nutrient use efficiency

The research outlined in this paper highlights the importance of the early nutrition of vegetable crops, and its long-term effects on their subsequent growth and development. Results are also presented to demonstrate how the nutrient supply during the establishment stages of young seedlings and transplants can be enhanced by targeting fertiliser to a zone close to their developing roots. Three different precision fertiliser placement techniques are compared for this purpose: starter, band or side-injected fertiliser. The use of each of these methods consistently produced the same (or greater) yields at lower application rates than those from conventional broadcast applications, increasing the apparent recovery of N, P and K, and the overall efficiency of nutrient use, while reducing the levels of residual nutrients in the soil. Starter fertilisers also advanced the maturity of some crops, and enhanced produce quality by increasing the proportions of the larger and/or more desirable marketable grades. The benefits of the different placement techniques are illustrated with selected examples from research at Warwick HRI using different vegetable crops, including lettuce, onion and carrot.

The role of temperament and family environment in the development of anxiety disorder: two-year follow-up

Objective Behavioural inhibition (BI) in early childhood is associated with increased risk for anxiety. The present research examines BI alongside family environment factors, specifically maternal negativity and overinvolvement, maternal anxiety and mother-child attachment, with a view to providing a broader understanding of the development of child anxiety. Method Participants were 202 children classified at age 4 as either behaviourally inhibited (N=102) or uninhibited (N=100). Family environment, BI and child anxiety were assessed at baseline and child anxiety and BI were assessed again two-years later when participants were aged 6 years. Results After controlling for baseline anxiety, inhibited participants were significantly more likely to meet criteria for a diagnosis of social phobia and generalized anxiety disorder at follow-up. Path analysis suggested that maternal anxiety significantly affected child anxiety over time, even after controlling for the effects of BI and baseline anxiety. No significant paths from parenting or attachment to child anxiety were found. Maternal overinvolvement was significantly associated with BI at follow-up. Conclusions At age 4, BI, maternal anxiety and child anxiety represent risk factors for anxiety at age 6. Furthermore, overinvolved parenting increases risk for BI at age 6, which may then lead to the development of anxiety in later childhood.

Correlates of early reading comprehension skills: a componential analysis

This study had three main aims. First, we examined to what extent listening comprehension, vocabulary, grammatical skills and verbal short-term memory (VSTM) assessed prior to formal reading instruction explained individual differences in early reading comprehension levels. Second, we examined to what extent the three common component skills, namely vocabulary, grammar and VSTM explained the relationship between kindergarten listening comprehension and early reading comprehension levels. Third, we examined the relative contributions of word-reading and listening comprehension skills to early reading comprehension in Turkish. For this purpose, 56 Turkish-speaking children were followed from kindergarten (mean age = 67.7 months) into Grade 2 (mean age = 90.6 months). The relative role of kindergarten listening comprehension, vocabulary, VSTM and grammatical skills in later reading comprehension tended to vary across time, and they partly explained the relationship between listening comprehension and reading comprehension. Finally, as anticipated, listening comprehension, rather than word-reading , was found to play a more powerful role in children’s reading comprehension levels even during the early primary grades. These results contradicted those reported in English and can be explained by the rapid development of accurate word-reading skills due to the consistency of the grapheme–phoneme relationships of the Turkish orthography.

Measuring students' emotions in the early years: the Achievement Emotions Questionnaire-Elementary School (AEQ-ES)

This article reports about the development and validation of a measurement instrument assessing elementary school students' achievement emotions (Achievement Emotions Questionnaire-Elementary School, AEQ-ES). Specifically, the instrument assesses students' enjoyment, anxiety, and boredom pertaining to three types of academic settings (i.e., attending class, doing homework, and taking tests and exams). Scale construction was based on Pekrun's (2006) control-value theory of achievement emotions. The instrument was tested using samples from German and American elementary school classrooms. The results of Study 1 (German sample) corroborate the reliability and structural validity of the new emotion measure. Moreover, they show that students' achievement emotions were linked with their control and value appraisals as well as their academic performance, thus supporting the external validity of the measure as well as propositions of Pekrun's (2006) control-value theory of achievement emotions. Study 2 (American sample) corroborated the cross-cultural equivalence of the measure and the generalizability of findings across the German and American samples. Implications for research on achievement emotions and educational practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract)

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

Do early father–infant interactions predict the onset of externalising behaviours in young children? Findings from a longitudinal cohort study

Background Factors related to parents and parenting capacities are important predictors of the development of behavioural problems in children. Recently, there has been an increasing research focus in this field on the earliest years of life, however, relatively few studies have addressed the role of fathers, despite this appearing to be particularly pertinent to child behavioural development. This study aimed to examine whether father–infant interactions at age 3 months independently predicted child behavioural problems at 1 year of age. Method A sample of 192 families was recruited from two maternity units in the United Kingdom. Father–infant interactions were assessed in the family home and coded using the Global Rating Scales. Child behaviour problems were assessed by maternal report. Hierarchical and logistic regression analyses were used to examine associations between father–infant interaction and the development of behavioural problems. Results Disengaged and remote interactions between fathers and their infants were found to predict externalising behavioural problems at the age of 1 year. The children of the most disengaged fathers had an increased risk of developing early externalising behavioural problems [disengaged (nonintrusive) interactions – adjusted Odds Ratio 5.33 (95% Confidence Interval; 1.39, 20.40): remote interactions adj. OR 3.32 (0.92, 12.05)] Conclusions Disengaged interactions of fathers with their infants, as early as the third month of life, predict early behavioural problems in children. These interactions may be critical factors to address, from a very early age in the child’s life, and offer a potential opportunity for preventive intervention.

Promoting mother–infant book sharing and infant attention and language development in an impoverished South African population: a pilot study

The low rates of child literacy in South Africa are cause for considerable concern. Research from the developed world shows that parental sharing of picture books with infants and young children is beneficial for child language and cognitive development, as well as literacy skills. We conducted a pilot study to examine whether such benefits might extend to an impoverished community in South Africa, by evaluating the impact of training mothers in book sharing with their 14–18 month old infants. Seventeen mothers received book sharing training; and 13 mothers did not, but instead received a comparison training in toy play. We assessed the mothers’ behavior during both book sharing and toy play before and after training, and we also assessed infant attention and language. Mothers receiving book sharing training engaged well with it, and they also benefited from it; thus, compared to the comparison group mothers, they became more sensitive, more facilitating, and more elaborative with their infants during book sharing, and they also became more sensitive to their infants during toy play. In addition, infants whose mothers received the book sharing training showed greater benefits than the comparison group infants in both their attention and language. Training in book sharing for families living in conditions of marked socio-economic adversity in South Africa has the potential to be of considerable benefit to child developmental progress. A large scale controlled trial is required to confirm this.

Development and validation of a parent report measure for detection of cognitive delay in infancy

Aim To develop a brief, parent-completed instrument (‘ERIC’) for detection of cognitive delay in 10-24 month-olds born preterm, or with low birth weight, or with perinatal complications, and to establish its diagnostic properties. Method Scores were collected from parents of 317 children meeting ≥1 inclusion criteria (birth weight <1500g; gestational age <34 completed weeks; 5-minute Apgar <7; presence of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy) and meeting no exclusion criteria. Children were assessed for cognitive delay using a criterion score on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development Cognitive Scale III1 <80. Items were retained according to their individual associations with delay. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive and Negative Predictive Values were estimated and a truncated ERIC was developed for use <14 months. Results ERIC detected 17 out of 18 delayed children in the sample, with 94.4% sensitivity (95% CI [confidence interval] 83.9-100%), 76.9% specificity (72.1-81.7%), 19.8% positive predictive value (11.4-28.2%); 99.6% negative predictive value (98.7-100%); 4.09 likelihood ratio positive; and 0.07 likelihood ratio negative; the associated Area under the Curve was .909 (.829-.960). Interpretation ERIC has potential value as a quickly-administered diagnostic instrument for the absence of early cognitive delay in preterm or premature infants of 10-24 months, and as a screen for cognitive delay. Further research may be needed before ERIC can be recommended for wide-scale use.

The development of a data-driven application benchmarking approach to performance modelling

Performance modelling is a useful tool in the lifeycle of high performance scientific software, such as weather and climate models, especially as a means of ensuring efficient use of available computing resources. In particular, sufficiently accurate performance prediction could reduce the effort and experimental computer time required when porting and optimising a climate model to a new machine. In this paper, traditional techniques are used to predict the computation time of a simple shallow water model which is illustrative of the computation (and communication) involved in climate models. These models are compared with real execution data gathered on AMD Opteron-based systems, including several phases of the U.K. academic community HPC resource, HECToR. Some success is had in relating source code to achieved performance for the K10 series of Opterons, but the method is found to be inadequate for the next-generation Interlagos processor. The experience leads to the investigation of a data-driven application benchmarking approach to performance modelling. Results for an early version of the approach are presented using the shallow model as an example.

Investigating early years teachers’ understanding and response to children’s preconceptions

This paper focuses on young children’s scientific preconceptions and discusses teachers’ identification of these preconceptions when teaching science in the early years, on which research is still limited. This paper is based on the theoretical framework of constructivism and it defines preconceptions as children’s erroneous concepts prior to formal education. A two phase case study approach was employed, facilitating in-depth investigation though the use of questionnaires, interviews and observations. The results indicate that the teachers did not dedicate time to identify children’s preconceptions when planning and teaching science, even when acknowledging preconceptions’ possible existence. This indicates a possible lack of appreciation of the importance of children’s preconceptions of the consequences when ignoring them. The results also indicate the need for further training and professional development in relation to the teaching of early-years science, especially since only a very small percentage of early years teachers tend to study science during their years compulsory education. A number of suggestions are also provided for practice and policy that can be useful for other subjects as well.