Measuring departures from Hardy-Weinberg: a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the inbreeding coefficient

Many well-established statistical methods in genetics were developed in a climate of severe constraints on computational power. Recent advances in simulation methodology now bring modern, flexible statistical methods within the reach of scientists having access to a desktop workstation. We illustrate the potential advantages now available by considering the problem of assessing departures from Hardy-Weinberg (HW) equilibrium. Several hypothesis tests of HW have been established, as well as a variety of point estimation methods for the parameter which measures departures from HW under the inbreeding model. We propose a computational, Bayesian method for assessing departures from HW, which has a number of important advantages over existing approaches. The method incorporates the effects-of uncertainty about the nuisance parameters--the allele frequencies--as well as the boundary constraints on f (which are functions of the nuisance parameters). Results are naturally presented visually, exploiting the graphics capabilities of modern computer environments to allow straightforward interpretation. Perhaps most importantly, the method is founded on a flexible, likelihood-based modelling framework, which can incorporate the inbreeding model if appropriate, but also allows the assumptions of the model to he investigated and, if necessary, relaxed. Under appropriate conditions, information can be shared across loci and, possibly, across populations, leading to more precise estimation. The advantages of the method are illustrated by application both to simulated data and to data analysed by alternative methods in the recent literature.

Measuring gametic disequilibrium from multilocus data

We describe a Bayesian approach to analyzing multilocus genotype or haplotype data to assess departures from gametic (linkage) equilibrium. Our approach employs a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to approximate the posterior probability distributions of disequilibrium parameters. The distributions are computed exactly in some simple settings. Among other advantages, posterior distributions can be presented visually, which allows the uncertainties in parameter estimates to be readily assessed. In addition, background knowledge can be incorporated, where available, to improve the precision of inferences. The method is illustrated by application to previously published datasets; implications for multilocus forensic match probabilities and for simple association-based gene mapping are also discussed.

Use of the LMS adaptive signal processing technique to improve signal data rates from practical oil well logging equipment

The simulation and development work that has been undertaken to produce a signal equaliser used to improve the data rates from oil well logging instruments is presented. The instruments are lowered into the drill bore hole suspended by a cable which has poor electrical characteristics. The equaliser described in the paper corrects for the distortions that occur from the cable (dispersion and attenuation) with the result that the instrument can send data at 100 K.bits/second down its own suspension cable of 12 Km in length. The use of simulation techniques and tools were invaluable in generating a model for the distortions and proved to be a useful tool when site testing was not available.

Judging size, distance and depth with an active telepresence system

A visual telepresence system has been developed at the University of Reading which utilizes eye tracing to adjust the horizontal orientation of the cameras and display system according to the convergence state of the operator's eyes. Slaving the cameras to the operator's direction of gaze enables the object of interest to be centered on the displays. The advantage of this is that the camera field of view may be decreased to maximize the achievable depth resolution. An active camera system requires an active display system if appropriate binocular cues are to be preserved. For some applications, which critically depend upon the veridical perception of the object's location and dimensions, it is imperative that the contribution of binocular cues to these judgements be ascertained because they are directly influenced by camera and display geometry. Using the active telepresence system, we investigated the contribution of ocular convergence information to judgements of size, distance and shape. Participants performed an open- loop reach and grasp of the virtual object under reduced cue conditions where the orientation of the cameras and the displays were either matched or unmatched. Inappropriate convergence information produced weak perceptual distortions and caused problems in fusing the images.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 ± 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.

Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

Operationalising and measuring language dominance

The paper offers a new way to measure language ability in bilinguals, based on measures of lexical richness. The validity of proposed approach is tested in a variety of ways.