Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

Antioxidant enzymes, inflammatory indices and lifestyle factors in older men: a cohort analysis

We examined the relationship between blood antioxidant enzyme activities, indices of inflammatory status and a number of lifestyle factors in the Caerphilly prospective cohort study of ischaemic heart disease. The study began in 1979 and is based on a representative male population sample. Initially 2512 men were seen in phase I, and followed-up every 5 years in phases II and III; they have recently been seen in phase IV. Data on social class, smoking habit, alcohol consumption were obtained by questionnaire, and body mass index was measured. Antioxidant enzyme activities and indices of inflammatory status were estimated by standard techniques. Significant associations were observed for: age with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001); smoking habit with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001) and with glutathione peroxidose (GPX) (p<0.0001); social class with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin both protein (p<0.001) and oxidase (p<0.01) and with GPX (p<0.0001); body mass index with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin protein (p<0.001). There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and any of the blood enzymes measured. Factor analysis produced a three-factor model (explaining 65.9% of the variation in the data set) which appeared to indicate close inter-relationships among antioxidants.

Dielectric relaxation around the nematic-isotropic transition of liquid crystalline polymers

This study is concerned with a series of acrylate based side-chain liquid crystalline (LC) polymers. Previous studies have shown that these LC polymers have a preference for parallel or perpendicular alignment with respect to the polymer chain which depends on the length of the coupling chain joining the mesogenic unit to the polymer backbone. On the other hand, the dielectric relaxation of these side-chain LC polymers shows a strong relaxation associated to the mesogenic unit dynamics. For samples with parallel alignment, it was found that the dielectric relaxation of the nematic is weaker and broader than the relaxation of the isotropic. By contrast, for samples with perpendicular alignment, the isotropic to nematic transition reduces the broadening the relaxation and increases the relaxation strength. These two features are more evident for samples with short coupling units for which the dielectric relaxation observed appears to be strongly coupled with the backbone dynamics.

Liquid crystalline elastomers: the relationship between macroscopic behaviour and the level of backbone anisotropy

Nematic monodomain liquid crystalline elastomers have been prepared through in situ cross-linking of an acrylate based side-chain liquid crystalline polymer in a magnetic field. At the nematic–isotropic transition, the sample is found to undergo an anisotropic shape change. There is found to be an increase in dimensions perpendicular — and a decrease parallel — to the director, this is consistent with alignment of the polymer backbone parallel to the direction of mesogen alignment in the nematic state. From a quantitative investigation of this behaviour, we estimate the level of backbone anisotropy for the elastomer. As second measure of the backbone anisotropy, the monodomain sample was physically extended. We have investigated, in particular, the situation where a monodomain sample is deformed with the angle between the director and the extension direction approaching 90°. The behaviour on extension of these acrylate samples is related to alternative theoretical interpretations and the backbone anisotropy determined. Comparison of the chain anisotropy derived from these two approaches and the value obtained from previous small-angle neutron scattering measurements on deuterium labelled mixtures of the same polymer shows that some level of chain anisotropy is retained in the isotropic or more strictly weakly paranematic state of the elastomer. The origin and implications of this behaviour are discussed.

Anisotropic films of polypyrrole formed electrochemically using a non-planar dopant

We report the electrochemical preparation of electrically conducting films based on polypyrrole, using 10-camphorsulfonate as the dopant, which exhibit a highly anisotropic molecular organisation. This contrasts with earlier reports, in which anisotropy appeared to be restricted to films prepared using aromatic-based planar dopants. Possible growth mechanisms for these materials to account for the molecular anisotropy are discussed.

Effect of media polarity on the photoisomerisation of substituted stilbene, azobenzene and imine chromophores

The influence of substituents and media polarity on the photoinducedE→Z geometrical isomerisation of the stilbene, azobenzene and N-benzylideneaniline chromophores has been compared and assessed. The efficiency of the process in all three systems is markedly dependent on the presence and characteristics of electron-donor and electron-acceptor substituents at the 4- and 4′-positions. The results are discussed in terms of relaxation of the E-excited singlet state. In the absence of a nitro substituent, relaxation to the S1 orthogonal state competes effectively with non-productive intramolecular electron transfer; in the presence of a nitro substituent, the T1 orthogonal state is formed from inter-system crossing. For systems with a 4-nitro and a 4′-electron-donor substituent, access to the triplet state is inhibited by polar solvents promoting formation of the inactive charge-transfer state from the S1 state, and no isomerisation is observed. Similar effects are observed in both solution and polymer films. Such variations in behaviour have important implications for the utilisation of the chromophores in nonlinear optical phenomena including photorefractivity.

Memory effects in liquid crystal elastomers

Free-standing monodomain liquid crystal elastomer samples are shown to have a complete memory of the orientational configuration at the time of cross-linking. This memory is demonstrated through samples in which the parent polymer system is first aligned in a magnetic field prior to cross-linking. These films show reversible nematic-isotropic phase transitions and x-ray scattering patterns characteristic of nematic phases. The liquid crystal elastomer films exhibit a remarkable memory effect, in that the sample may be held at temperatures well above the nematic-isotropic transition for extended periods ( > 2 weeks), but on cooling into the liquid crystal phase region, both the original director alignment and the degree of preferred orientation are recovered. It is demonstrated that these novel memory effects are equilibrium in nature. The origins of this phenomena in terms of coupling between the mesogenic side-chains and the polymer network are discussed.

The effect of the spacer length on the nature of coupling in side chain liquid crystals polymers and elastomers

Side chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers exhibit a rich phase behaviour which arises from the antagonistic influences of the entropically disordered polymer chain configuration and the long range orientational ordering of the mesogenic units. This competition arises since the natural macroscopic phase separation is inhibited by the inherent chemical connectivity of the system. At the heart of this connectivity is the spacer link and we consider here its influence on the phase behaviour. In particular we consider a series of elastomers in which the number of alkyl units in the spacer is systematically varied from 2 to 6. The lengthening of the coupling spacer is accompanied by an alternation of the sign of coupling between the polymer chain and the mesogenic unit. These results demonstrate the dominating influence of the so-called hinge effect in determining the phase behaviour. In addition to the alternation of the sign there is some decrease in the magnitude of the coupling with increasing spacer length.

Coupling between mesogenic units and polymer backbone in side-chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers

The levels of alignment of the mesogenic units and of the polymer backbone trajectory for polyacrylate based nematic side-chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers were evaluated by using wide angle X-ray and small angle neutron scattering procedures. The X-ray scattering measurements show that substantial levels of preferred orientation of the mesogenic units may be introduced through magnetic fields for uncrosslinked polymers and through mechanical extension for liquid crystal elastomers. Small angle neutron scattering measurements show that for highly aligned samples an anisotropic polymer backbone trajectory is observed in which the envelope is slightly extended by ∼ 10% in the direction parallel to the axis of alignment of the mesogenic units. The sense of this coupling differs from that recorded for other uncrosslinked side-chain liquid crystal polymers. Possible mechanisms to account for this anisotropy and its relationship to the properties of liquid crystal elastomers are discussed. The observed deformation behaviour of the liquid crystal elastomer is non-affine and this appears to confirm the dominating influence of the liquid crystal order of the side chains on the mechanical properties of these novel networks.

Influence of synthesis on the structure of electrochemically prepared electrically conducting polymers

The inherent possibility of structural anisotropy in polypyrrole and other heterocyclic systems is introduced. By selecting the appropriate electrochemical variables including monomer and dopant type this intrinsic molecular anisotropy may be used to prepare films with well defined global anisotropy, in which the planes of the pyrrole rings prefer to lie parallel to the electrode surface. The conditions for obtaining such materials are discussed and some of the effects of these novel anisotropic structures on the resultant properties are highlighted. Attention is directed at charge transport and optical properties.

The effect of dopant molecules on the molecular order of electrically-conducting films of polypyrrole

X-ray scattering curves have been measured for a range of electrochemically-prepared conducting polypyrrole films employing a variety of counterions in aqueous solutions. Films containing counterions based on aromatic rings exhibit an anisotropic molecular organization. The degree of anisotropy is enhanced through the use of highly planar counterions. The electrical conductivity of such films is also improved if the charge/volume ratio of the counterion is maintained at a high level. Polypyrrole films prepared using ‘spherically’ shaped counterions such as SO42− do not display such anisotropic molecular organizations, and exhibit lower electrical conductivities. The competing structural roles of the counterions within these molecular composites are discussed.