Stratospheric temperature trends: our evolving understanding

We review the scientific literature since the 1960s to examine the evolution of modeling tools and observations that have advanced understanding of global stratospheric temperature changes. Observations show overall cooling of the stratosphere during the period for which they are available (since the late 1950s and late 1970s from radiosondes and satellites, respectively), interrupted by episodes of warming associated with volcanic eruptions, and superimposed on variations associated with the solar cycle. There has been little global mean temperature change since about 1995. The temporal and vertical structure of these variations are reasonably well explained bymodels that include changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols, and solar output, although there are significant uncertainties in the temperature observations and regarding the nature and influence of past changes in stratospheric water vapor. As a companion to a recent WIREs review of tropospheric temperature trends, this article identifies areas of commonality and contrast between the tropospheric and stratospheric trend literature. For example, the increased attention over time to radiosonde and satellite data quality has contributed to better characterization of uncertainty in observed trends both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere, and has highlighted the relative deficiency of attention to observations in the middle and upper stratosphere. In contrast to the relatively unchanging expectations of surface and tropospheric warming primarily induced by greenhouse gas increases, stratospheric temperature change expectations have arisen from experiments with a wider variety of model types, showingmore complex trend patterns associated with a greater diversity of forcing agents.

Chemical ageing and transformation of diffusivity in semi-solid multi-component organic aerosol particles

Recent experimental evidence underlines the importance of reduced diffusivity in amorphous semi-solid or glassy atmospheric aerosols. This paper investigates the impact of diffusivity on the ageing of multi-component reactive organic particles approximating atmospheric cooking aerosols. We apply and extend the recently developed KMSUB model in a study of a 12-component mixture containing oleic and palmitoleic acids. We demonstrate that changes in the diffusivity may explain the evolution of chemical loss rates in ageing semi-solid particles, and we resolve surface and bulk processes under transient reaction conditions considering diffusivities altered by oligomerisation. This new model treatment allows prediction of the ageing of mixed organic multi-component aerosols over atmospherically relevant timescales and conditions. We illustrate the impact of changing diffusivity on the chemical half-life of reactive components in semi-solid particles, and we demonstrate how solidification and crust formation at the particle surface can affect the chemical transformation of organic aerosols.

Determining the contribution of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol in backscatter lidar returns: a three‐component atmosphere approach

A solution of the lidar equation is discussed, that permits combining backscatter and depolarization measurements to quantitatively distinguish two different aerosol types with different depolarization properties. The method has been successfully applied to simultaneous observations of volcanic ash and boundary layer aerosol obtained in Exeter, United Kingdom, on 16 and 18 April 2010, permitting the contribution of the two aerosols to be quantified separately. First a subset of the atmospheric profiles is used where the two aerosol types belong to clearly distinguished layers, for the purpose of characterizing the ash in terms of lidar ratio and depolarization. These quantities are then used in a three‐component atmosphere solution scheme of the lidar equation applied to the full data set, in order to compute the optical properties of both aerosol types separately. On 16 April a thin ash layer, 100–400 m deep, is observed (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.11 and 0.2); it descends from ∼2800 to ∼1400 m altitude over a 6‐hour period. On 18 April a double ash layer, ∼400 m deep, is observed just above the morning boundary layer (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.19 and 0.27). In the afternoon the ash is entrained into the boundary layer, and the latter reaches a depth of ∼1800 m (average and maximum estimated ash optical depth: 0.1 and 0.15). An additional ash layer, with a very small optical depth, was observed on 18 April at an altitude of 3500–4000 m. By converting the lidar optical measurements using estimates of volcanic ash specific extinction, derived from other works, the observations seem to suggest approximate peak ash concentrations of ∼1500 and ∼1000 mg/m3,respectively, on the two observations dates.

The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening

Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as ‘dimming’ while positive trends have become known as ‘brightening’. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.

Possible role of aerosol transmission in a hospital outbreak of influenza.

BACKGROUND: We examined the role of aerosol transmission of influenza in an acute ward setting. METHODS: We investigated a seasonal influenza A outbreak that occurred in our general medical ward (with open bay ward layout) in 2008. Clinical and epidemiological information was collected in real time during the outbreak. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed to estimate the infection risk among patients. Airflow measurements were conducted, and concentrations of hypothetical virus-laden aerosols at different ward locations were estimated using computational fluid dynamics modeling. RESULTS: Nine inpatients were infected with an identical strain of influenza A/H3N2 virus. With reference to the index patient's location, the attack rate was 20.0% and 22.2% in the "same" and "adjacent" bays, respectively, but 0% in the "distant" bay (P = .04). Temporally, the risk of being infected was highest on the day when noninvasive ventilation was used in the index patient; multivariate logistic regression revealed an odds ratio of 14.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.7-131.3; P = .015). A simultaneous, directional indoor airflow blown from the "same" bay toward the "adjacent" bay was found; it was inadvertently created by an unopposed air jet from a separate air purifier placed next to the index patient's bed. Computational fluid dynamics modeling revealed that the dispersal pattern of aerosols originated from the index patient coincided with the bed locations of affected patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a possible role of aerosol transmission of influenza in an acute ward setting. Source and engineering controls, such as avoiding aerosol generation and improving ventilation design, may warrant consideration to prevent nosocomial outbreaks.

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42−). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO42− and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean ± 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 ± 0.6 to 1.7 ± 2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (−162.6 ± 2 mWm−2 for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (−0.4 ± 0.2 to −0.7 ± 0.2 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1) and CO emissions (−0.13 ± 0.02 to −0.15 ± 0.02 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by −1.9 to −5.2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1, −0.2 to −0.7 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1, and −0.02 to −0.05 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1. Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42−, regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42− responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 ± 2.6 to −1.9 ± 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 ± 1.2 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and −0.09 ± 0.5 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 ± 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 ± 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (−18.7 ± 25.9 to −1.9 ± 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 ± 1.7 to 8.3 ± 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 ± 0.4 to 1.7 ± 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Updated estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite observations and comparison against the Hadley Centre climate model

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes a comparison of observation-based and modeling-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative forcing. In this comparison, satellite-based studies suggest a more negative aerosol direct radiative forcing than modeling studies. A previous satellite-based study, part of the IPCC comparison, uses aerosol optical depths and accumulation-mode fractions retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at collection 4. The latest version of MODIS products, named collection 5, improves aerosol retrievals. Using these products, the direct forcing in the shortwave spectrum defined with respect to present-day natural aerosols is now estimated at −1.30 and −0.65 Wm−2 on a global clear-sky and all-sky average, respectively, for 2002. These values are still significantly more negative than the numbers reported by modeling studies. By accounting for differences between present-day natural and preindustrial aerosol concentrations, sampling biases, and investigating the impact of differences in the zonal distribution of anthropogenic aerosols, good agreement is reached between the direct forcing derived from MODIS and the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2-A over clear-sky oceans. Results also suggest that satellite estimates of anthropogenic aerosol optical depth over land should be coupled with a robust validation strategy in order to refine the observation-based estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing. In addition, the complex problem of deriving the aerosol direct radiative forcing when aerosols are located above cloud still needs to be addressed.

Global ocean warming tied to anthropogenic forcing

Observed global ocean heat content anomalies over the past five decades agree well with an anthropogenically forced simulation using the European Center/Hamburg coupled general circulation model (GCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3 considering increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the direct and indirect effect of sulphate aerosols, and anthropogenic changes in tropospheric ozone. An optimal detection and attribution analysis confirms that the simulated climate change signal can be detected in the observations in both the upper 300 m and 3000 m of the water column and that the observed changes in ocean heat content are consistent with those expected from the anthropogenically forced GCM integration. This suggests that anthropogenic forcing is a likely explanation for the observed global ocean warming over the past five decades.

Geo-Engineering to Confine Climate Change: Is it at all Feasible?

Paul Crutzen (2006) has suggested a research initiative to consider whether it would be feasible to artificially enhance the albedo of the planet Earth to counteract greenhouse warming. The enhancement of albedo would be achieved by intentionally injecting sulfur into the stratosphere. The rational for proposing the experiment is the observed cooling of the atmosphere following the recent major volcanic eruptions by El Chichon in 1984 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 (Hansen et al., 1992). Although I am principally not against a research initiative to study such a potential experiment, I do have important reservations concerning its general feasibility. And its potential feasibility, I believe, must be the key motivation for embarking on such a study. Here I will bring up three major issues, which must be more thoroughly understood before any geo-engineering of climate could be considered, if at all. The three issues are (i) the lack of accuracy in climate prediction, (ii) the huge difference in timescale between the effect of greenhouse gases and the effect of aerosols and (iii) serious environmental problems which may be caused by high carbon dioxide concentration irrespective of the warming of the climate.

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?

Upper air observations from radiosondes and microwave satellite instruments does not indicate any global warming during the last 19 years, contrary to surface measurements, where a warming trend is supposedly being found. This result is somewhat difficult to reconcile, since climate model experiments do indicate a reverse trend, namely, that upper tropospheric air should warm faster than the surface. To contribute toward an understanding of this difficulty, we have here undertaken some specific experiments to study the effect on climate due to the decrease in stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991. The associated forcing was added to the forcing from greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect effect), and tropospheric ozone, which was investigated in a separate series of experiments. Furthermore, we have undertaken an ensemble study in order to explore the natural variability of an advanced climate model exposed to such a forcing over 19 years. The result shows that the reduction of stratospheric ozone cools not only the lower stratosphere but also the troposphere, in particular, the upper and middle part. In the upper troposphere the cooling from stratospheric ozone leads to a significant reduction of greenhouse warming. The modeled stratospheric aerosols from Mount Pinatubo generate a climate response (stratospheric warming and tropospheric cooling) in good agreement with microwave satellite measurements. Finally, analysis of a series of experiments with both stratospheric ozone and the Mount Pinatubo effect shows considerable variability in climate response, suggesting that an evolution having no warming in the period is as likely as another evolution showing modest warming. However, the observed trend of no warming in the midtroposphere and clear warming at the surface is not found in the model simulations.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Detection of anthropogenic climate change using a fingerprint method

A fingerprint method for detecting anthropogenic climate change is applied to new simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) forced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols covering the years 1880 to 2050. In addition to the anthropogenic climate change signal, the space-time structure of the natural climate variability for near-surface temperatures is estimated from instrumental data over the last 134 years and two 1000 year simulations with CGCMs. The estimates are compared with paleoclimate data over 570 years. The space-time information on both the signal and the noise is used to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio of a detection variable obtained by applying an optimal filter (fingerprint) to the observed data. The inclusion of aerosols slows the predicted future warming. The probability that the observed increase in near-surface temperatures in recent decades is of natural origin is estimated to be less than 5%. However, this number is dependent on the estimated natural variability level, which is still subject to some uncertainty.