Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Optical properties of Saharan dust aerosol and contribution from the coarse mode as measured during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign

New in-situ aircraft measurements of Saharan dust originating from Mali, Mauritania and Algeria taken during the Fennec 2011 aircraft campaign over a remote part of the Sahara Desert are presented. Size distributions extending to 300 μm are shown, representing measurements extending further into the coarse mode than previously published for airborne Saharan dust. A significant coarse mode was present in the size distribution measurements with effective diameter (deff) from 2.3 to 19.4 μm and coarse mode volume median diameter (dvc) from 5.8 to 45.3 μm. The mean size distribution had a larger relative proportion of coarse mode particles than previous aircraft measurements. The largest particles (with deff >12 μm, or dvc >25 μm) were only encountered within 1 km of the ground. Number concentration, mass loading and extinction coefficient showed inverse relationships to dust age since uplift. Dust particle size showed a weak exponential relationship to dust age. Two cases of freshly uplifted dust showed quite different characteristics of size distribution and number concentration. Single Scattering Albed (SSA) values at 550 nm calculated from the measured size distributions revealed high absorption ranging from 0.70 to 0.97 depending on the refractive index. SSA was found to be strongly related to deff. New instrumentation revealed that direct measurements, behind Rosemount inlets, overestimate SSA by up to 0.11 when deff is greater than 2 μm. This is caused by aircraft inlet inefficiencies and sampling losses. Previous measurements of SSA from aircraft measurements may also have been overestimates for this reason. Radiative transfer calculations indicate that the range of SSAs during Fennec 2011 can lead to underestimates in shortwave atmospheric heating rates by 2.0 to 3.0 times if the coarse mode is neglected. This will have an impact on Saharan atmospheric dynamics and circulation,which should be taken into account by numerical weather prediction and climate models.

The contribution of flux transfer events to convection

It is shown from flux transfer event (FTE) occurrence statistics, observed as a function of MLT by the ISEE satellites, that recent 2-dimensional analytic theories of the effects of pulsed Petschek reconnection predict FTEs to contribute between 50 and 200 kV to the total reconnection voltage when the magnetosheath field points southward. The upper limit (200 kV) allows the possibility that FTEs provide all the antisunward transport of open field lines into the tail lobe. This range is compared with the voltages associated with series of FTEs signatures, as inferred from ground-based observations, which are in the range 10–60 kV. We conclude that the contribution could sometimes be made by a series of single, large events; however, the voltage is often likely to be contributed by several FTEs at different MLT.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

Challenges in quantifying wind generation's contribution to securing peak demand

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand is one of the key questions in wind integration studies. Differently from conventional units, the available outputs of different wind farms cannot be approximated as being statistically independent, and hence near-zero wind output is possible across an entire power system. This paper will review the risk model structures currently used to assess wind's capacity value, along with discussion of the resulting data requirements. A central theme is the benefits from performing statistical estimation of the joint distribution for demand and available wind capacity, focusing attention on uncertainties due to limited histories of wind and demand data; examination of Great Britain data from the last 25 years shows that the data requirements are greater than generally thought. A discussion is therefore presented into how analysis of the types of weather system which have historically driven extreme electricity demands can help to deliver robust insights into wind's contribution to supporting demand, even in the face of such data limitations. The role of the form of the probability distribution for available conventional capacity in driving wind capacity credit results is also discussed.

Contribution to collective harms and responsibility

In the present contribution, I discuss the claim, endorsed by a number of authors, that contributing to a collective harm is the ground for special responsibilities to the victims of that harm. Contributors should, between them, cover the costs of the harms they have inflicted, at least if those harms would otherwise be rights-violating. I raise some doubts about the generality of this principle before moving on to sketch a framework for thinking about liability for the costs of harms in general. This framework uses a contractualist framework to build an account of how to think about liability for costs on the basis of the presumably attractive thought that individual agents should have as much control over their liabilities as is compatible with others having like control. I then use that framework to suggest that liability on the basis of contribution should be restricted to cases in which the contributors could have avoided their contribution relatively costlessly, in which meeting the liability is not crippling for them, and in which such a liability would not have chilling effects, either on them or on third parties. This account of the grounds for contributory liability also has the advantage of avoiding a number of awkward questions about what counts as a contribution by shifting the issue away from often unanswerable questions about the precise causal genesis of some harm or other. Instead, control over conduct, which plausibly has some relation to the harm, becomes crucial. On the basis of this account, I then investigate whether a number of uses of the contributory principle are entirely appropriate. I argue that contributory liability is not appropriate for cases of collective harms committed by coordinated groups in the way that, for example, Iris Marion Young and Thomas Pogge have suggested and that further investigation of how members of such groups may be liable will be needed.

An unexpected legacy and its contribution to early Indian typography

Reprinted from Matrix 7 (Winter 1987) with revisions

Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

Contribution to The World Goes Pop exhibition catalogue

Biographies for artists Barel, Joav (p.174), Brudascu, Cornel (p.177), Bucan, Boris (p.178), Chicago, Judy (p.182), Ivekovic, Sanja (p.197), Komar and Melamid (p.200), Lach-Lachowicz, Natalia (p.203), Otasevic, Dusan (p.212), Overstreet, Joe (p.214), Pininska - Beres, Maria (p.215), Rosler, Martha (p.222), Schifano, Mario (p.223), Self, Colin (p.224), Tajiri, Thinkichi (p.228), Tanaami, Keiichi (p.229), Tilson, Joe (p.231), Vardea, Chryssa (p.233), Yokoo, Tadanori (p.234), Zelibska, Jana (p.235) and Zielinski, Jerzy (p.236).

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.