Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-hop amplify-and-forward relaying cooperation in the presence of I/Q imbalance

In this paper, multi-hop cooperative networks implementing channel state information (CSI)-assisted amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying in the presence of in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance are investigated. We propose a compensation algorithm for the I/Q imbalance. The performance of the multi-hop CSI-assisted AF cooperative networks with and without compensation for I/Q imbalance in Nakagami-m fading environment is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability. Numerical results are provided and show that the proposed compensation method can effectively mitigate the impact of I/Q imbalance.

Dual-hop amplify-and-forward cooperative relaying in the presence of Tx and Rx in-phase and quadrature-phase imbalance

In this study, dual-hop channel state information-assisted amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative systems in the presence of in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance, which refers to the mismatch between components in the I and Q branches, are investigated. First, the authors analyse the performance of the considered AF cooperative protocol without compensation for the I/Q imbalance as the benchmark. Then, a compensation algorithm for the I/Q imbalance is proposed, which makes use of the received signals at the destination, from the source and the relay nodes, together with their conjugations to detect the transmitted signal. Moreover, the authors study the considered AF cooperative system implemented with the opportunistic relay selection and the proposed compensation mechanism for the I/Q imbalance. The performance of the AF cooperative system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability, which is derived by considering transmission in a Rayleigh fading environment. Numerical results are provided and show that the proposed compensation algorithm can efficiently mitigate the effect of the I/Q imbalance. On the other hand, it is observed that the AF cooperative system with opportunistic relay selection acquires a performance gain beyond that without relay selection.

Presence and bronchomotor activity of protease-activated receptor-2 in guinea pig airways

The protease activated receptor-2 (PAR-2) belongs to a family of G-protein-coupled receptors that are activated by proteolysis. Trypsin cleaves PAR-2, exposing an N-terminal tethered ligand (SLIGRL) that activates the receptor. Messenger RNA (mRNA) for PAR-2 was found in guinea pig airway tissue by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, and PAR-2 was found by immunohistochemistry in airway epithelial and smooth-muscle cells. In anesthetized guinea pigs, trypsin and SLIGRL-NH(2) (given intratracheally or intravenously) caused a bronchoconstriction that was inhibited by the combination of tachykinin-NK(1) and -NK(2) receptor antagonists and was potentiated by inhibition of nitric oxide synthase (NOS). Trypsin and SLIGRL-NH(2) relaxed isolated trachea and main bronchi, and contracted intrapulmonary bronchi. Relaxation of main bronchi was abolished or reversed to contraction by removal of epithelium, administration of indomethacin, and NOS inhibition. PAR-1, PAR-3, and PAR-4 were not involved in the bronchomotor action of either trypsin or SLIGRL-NH(2), because ligands of these receptors were inactive either in vitro or in vivo, and because thrombin (a PAR-1 and PAR-3 agonist) did not show cross-desensitization with PAR-2 agonists in vivo. Thus, we have localized PAR-2 to the guinea-pig airways, and have shown that activation of PAR-2 causes multiple motor effects in these airways, including in vivo bronchoconstriction, which is in part mediated by a neural mechanism.

The mirror neuron system as revealed through neonatal imitation: presence from birth, predictive power, and evidence of plasticity

There is strong evidence that neonates imitate previously unseen behaviors. These behaviors are predominantly used in social interactions, demonstrating neonates’ ability and motivation to engage with others. Research on neonatal imitation can provide a wealth of information about the early mirror neuron system (MNS): namely, its functional characteristics, its plasticity from birth, and its relation to skills later in development. Though numerous studies document the existence of neonatal imitation in the laboratory, little is known about its natural occurrence during parent-infant interactions and its plasticity as a consequence of experience. We review these critical aspects of imitation, which we argue are necessary for understanding the early action-perception system. We address common criticisms and misunderstandings about neonatal imitation and discuss methodological differences among studies. Recent work reveals that individual differences in neonatal imitation positively correlate with later social, cognitive, and motor development. We propose that such variation in neonatal imitation could reflect important individual differences of the MNS. Although postnatal experience is not necessary for imitation, we present evidence that neonatal imitation is influenced by experience in the first week of life.

Phytoplankton–zooplankton dynamics in the ‘presence’ or ‘absence’ of toxic phytoplankton

The inhibitory effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) on zooplankton modulate the dynamics of marine plankton. In this article, we employ simple mathematical models to compare theoretically the dynamics of phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in situations where the TPP are present with those where TPP are absent. We consider two sets of three-component interaction models: one that does not include the effect of TPP and the other that does. The negative effects of TPP on zooplankton is described by a non-linear interaction term. Extensive theoretical analyses of the models have been performed to understand the qualitative behaviour of the model systems around every possible equilibria. The results of local-stability analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that the two model-systems differ qualitatively with regard to oscillations and stability. The model system that does not include TPP is asymptotically stable around the coexisting equilibria, whereas, the system that includes TPP oscillates for a range of parametric values associated with toxin-inhibition rate and competition coefficients. Our analysis suggests that the qualitative dynamics of the plankton–zooplankton interactions are very likely to alter due to the presence of TPP species, and therefore the effects of TPP should be considered carefully while modelling plankton dynamics.

Distinction between semantic and episodic memory: The underlying mechanisms for autonoetic consciousness

In 1972, episodic and semantic memories were considered to reflect different types of knowledge (Tulving, 1972). However, these early definitions encountered many difficulties. Now, Episodic and semantic memories are discussed in terms of awareness associated with retrieval (Wheeler, Stuss, & Tulving, 1997): Autonoetic consciousness (i.e., feeling of remembering) is considered associated with retrieval from the episodic memory system, while noetic consciousness (i.e., feeling of knowing) is considered characterized by retrieval from the semantic memory system. The present article investigated determinants of autonoetic consciousness in order to clarify characteristics of perceptual knowledge that is being recalled, the more strongly the individual feels autonoetic consciousness during retrieval, and that autonoetic consciousness is based on rich sensory-perceptual knowledge. Furthermore, we suggested that the parietal and frontal lobes mediate the process of generating autonoetic consciousness. This suggested that sensory-perceptual knowledge, the parietal lobe and the frontal lobe are important factors for discriminating episodic memory afrom semantic memory.

Bacterial motility confers fitness advantage in the presence of phages

Dispersal provides the opportunity to escape harm and colonize new patches, enabling populations to expand and persist. However, the benefits of dispersal associated with escaping harm will be dependent on the structure of the environment and the likelihood of escape. Here, we empirically investigate how the spatial distribution of a parasite influences the evolution of host dispersal. Bacteriophages are a strong and common threat for bacteria in natural environments and offer a good system with which to explore parasite-mediated selection on host dispersal. We used two transposon mutants of the opportunistic bacteria, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which varied in their motility (a disperser and a nondisperser), and the lytic bacteriophage ФKZ. The phage was distributed either in the central point of colony inoculation only, thus offering an escape route for the dispersing bacteria; or, present throughout the agar, where benefits of dispersal might be lost. Surprisingly, we found dispersal to be equally advantageous under both phage conditions relative to when phages were absent. A general explanation is that dispersal decreased the spatial structuring of host population, reducing opportunities for parasite transmission, but other more idiosyncratic mechanisms may also have contributed. This study highlights the crucial role the parasites can play on the evolution of dispersal and, more specifically, that bacteriophages, which are ubiquitous, are likely to select for bacterial motility.

Efficient masking of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) in the presence of the minor actinide Am(III) using hydrophilic anionic or cationic bis-triazines

Water soluble anionic and cationic bis-triazine ligands are able to suppress (mask) the extraction of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) that are found in PUREX raffinates. Thus it is possible to separate these elements from the minor actinide Am(III). Although some masking agents have previously been developed that retard the extraction of Pd(II), this is the first time a masking agent has been developed for Ni(II).

Parents' experiences of their children's presence in discussions with physicians about leukemia

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine parents' views regarding their preadolescent child's presence during discussions about serious illnesses. METHODS: In-depth qualitative interviews with parents of children receiving treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia were conducted. Parents were sampled from 6 UK treatment centers. Analysis was informed by the constant comparative method and content analysis. RESULTS: We report on interviews with 53 parents (33 mothers, 20 fathers). Parents acknowledged the benefits of communicating openly with children, but few thought that their child's presence in discussions was straightforwardly desirable. They described how their child's presence restricted their own communication with physicians, made concentrating difficult, and interfered with their efforts to care for their child emotionally. Children's presence was particularly difficult when significant issues were being discussed, including prognoses, adverse results, and certain medical procedures. Parents felt that such discussions posed a potential threat to their child, particularly when they had not first had an opportunity to discuss information with the physician separately from the child. In contrast, separate meetings enabled parents to absorb information and to convey it to their child at an appropriate time and in a reassuring way. Some parents experienced difficulties in accessing separate meetings with physicians. CONCLUSIONS: The difficulties parents described could potentially be addressed by extending, beyond the diagnosis period, the practice of sequencing significant information so that it is communicated to parents in separate meetings before being communicated to the child and by periodically exploring with parents what information would be in each child's interests.