Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Multiple haptic targets for motion-impaired computer users

Although a number of studies have reported that force feedback gravity wells can improve performance in "point-and-click" tasks, there have been few studies addressing issues surrounding the use of gravity wells for multiple on-screen targets. This paper investigates the performance of users, both with and without motion-impairments, in a "point-and-click" task when an undesired haptic distractor is present. The importance of distractor location is studied explicitly. Results showed that gravity wells can still improve times and error rates, even on occasions when the cursor is pulled into a distractor. The greatest improvement is seen for the most impaired users. In addition to traditional measures such as time and errors, performance is studied in terms of measures of cursor movement along a path. Two cursor measures, angular distribution and temporal components, are proposed and their ability to explain performance differences is explored.

The use of cursor measures for motion-impaired computer users

“Point and click” interactions remain one of the key features of graphical user interfaces (GUIs). People with motion-impairments, however, can often have difficulty with accurate control of standard pointing devices. This paper discusses work that aims to reveal the nature of these difficulties through analyses that consider the cursor’s path of movement. A range of cursor measures was applied, and a number of them were found to be significant in capturing the differences between able-bodied users and motion-impaired users, as well as the differences between a haptic force feedback condition and a control condition. The cursor measures found in the literature, however, do not make up a comprehensive list, but provide a starting point for analysing cursor movements more completely. Six new cursor characteristics for motion-impaired users are introduced to capture aspects of cursor movement different from those already proposed.

Using cursor measures to determine appropriate computer input assistance for motion-impaired users

People with motion-impairments can often have difficulty with accurate control of standard pointing devices for computer input. The nature of the difficulties may vary, so to be most effective, methods of assisting cursor control must be suited to each user's needs. The work presented here involves a study of cursor trajectories as a means of assessing the requirements of motion-impaired computer users. A new cursor characteristic is proposed that attempts to capture difficulties with moving the cursor in a smooth trajectory. A study was conducted to see if haptic tunnels could improve performance in "point and click" tasks. Results indicate that the tunnels reduced times to target for those users identified by the new characteristic as having the most difficulty moving in a smooth trajectory. This suggests that cursor characteristics have potential applications in performing assessments of a user's cursor control capabilities which can then be used to determine appropriate methods of assistance.

Human enhancement: could you become infected with a computer virus?

Experiments demonstrating human enhancement through the implantation of technology in healthy humans have been performed for over a decade by some academic research groups. More recently, technology enthusiasts have begun to realize the potential of implantable technology such as glass capsule RFID transponders. In this paper it is argued that implantable RFID devices have evolved to the point whereby we should consider the devices themselves as simple computers. Presented here is the infection with a computer virus of an RFID device implanted in a human. Coupled with our developing concept of what constitutes the human body and its boundaries, it is argued that this study has given rise to the world’s first human infected with a computer virus. It has taken the wider academic community some time to agree that meaningful discourse on the topic of implantable technology is of value. As developments in medical technologies point to greater possibilities for enhancement, this shift in thinking is not too soon in coming.