Refinement of the Clinical Scenario Evaluation Framework for Assessment of Competing Development Strategies with an Application to Multiple Sclerosis

When competing strategies for development programs, clinical trial designs, or data analysis methods exist, the alternatives need to be evaluated in a systematic way to facilitate informed decision making. Here we describe a refinement of the recently proposed clinical scenario evaluation framework for the assessment of competing strategies. The refinement is achieved by subdividing key elements previously proposed into new categories, distinguishing between quantities that can be estimated from preexisting data and those that cannot and between aspects under the control of the decision maker from those that are determined by external constraints. The refined framework is illustrated by an application to a design project for an adaptive seamless design for a clinical trial in progressive multiple sclerosis.

Ontology supported comparison in vague domains

It is problematic to use standard ontology tools when describing vague domains. Standard ontologies are designed to formally define one view of a domain, and although it is possible to define disagreeing statements, it is not advisable, as the resulting inferences could be incorrect. Two different solutions to the above problem in two different vague domains have been developed and are presented. The first domain is the knowledge base of conversational agents (chatbots). An ontological scripting language has been designed to access ontology data from within chatbot code. The solution developed is based on reifications of user statements. It enables a new layer of logics based on the different views of the users, enabling the body of knowledge to grow automatically. The second domain is competencies and competency frameworks. An ontological framework has been developed to model different competencies using the emergent standards. It enables comparison of competencies using a mix of linguistic logics and descriptive logics. The comparison results are non-binary, therefore not simple yes and no answers, highlighting the vague nature of the comparisons. The solution has been developed with small ontologies which can be added to and modified in order for the competency user to build a total picture that fits the user’s purpose. Finally these two approaches are viewed in the light of how they could aid future work in vague domains, further work in both domains is described and also in other domains such as the semantic web. This demonstrates two different approaches to achieve inferences using standard ontology tools in vague domains.

Towards a holistic modelling framework for embodied carbon and waste in the building lifecycle

As the building industry proceeds in the direction of low impact buildings, research attention is being drawn towards the reduction of carbon dioxide emission and waste. Starting from design and construction to operation and demolition, various building materials are used throughout the whole building lifecycle involving significant energy consumption and waste generation. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is emerging as a tool that can support holistic design-decision making for reducing embodied carbon and waste production in the building lifecycle. This study aims to establish a framework for assessing embodied carbon and waste underpinned by BIM technology. On the basis of current research review, the framework is considered to include functional modules for embodied carbon computation. There are a module for waste estimation, a knowledge-base of construction and demolition methods, a repository of building components information, and an inventory of construction materials’ energy and carbon. Through both static 3D model visualisation and dynamic modelling supported by the framework, embodied energy (carbon), waste and associated costs can be analysed in the boundary of cradle-to-gate, construction, operation, and demolition. The proposed holistic modelling framework provides a possibility to analyse embodied carbon and waste from different building lifecycle perspectives including associated costs. It brings together existing segmented embodied carbon and waste estimation into a unified model, so that interactions between various parameters through the different building lifecycle phases can be better understood. Thus, it can improve design-decision support for optimal low impact building development. The applicability of this framework is anticipated being developed and tested on industrial projects in the near future.

Defining a framework for the evaluation of information

In any enterprise, decisions need be made during the life cycle of information about its management. This requires information evaluation to take place; a little-understood process. For evaluation support to be both effective and resource efficient, some sort of automatic or semi-automatic evaluation method would be invaluable. Such a method would require an understanding of the diversity of the contexts in which evaluation takes place so that evaluation support can have the necessary context-sensitivity. This paper identifies the dimensions influencing the information evaluation process and defines the elements that characterise them, thus providing the foundations for a context-sensitive evaluation framework.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.