Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

Analysis of physiological data from the International Clonal Trial (CFC)

A range of physiological parameters (canopy light transmission, canopy shape, leaf size, flowering and flushing intensity) were measured from the International Clone Trial, typically over the course of two years. Data were collected from six locations, these being: Brazil, Ecuador, Trinidad, Venezuela, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Canopy shape varied significantly between clones, although it showed little variation between locations. Genotypic variation in leaf size was differentially affected by the growth location; such differences appeared to underlie a genotype by environment interaction in relation to canopy light transmission. Flushing data were recorded at monthly intervals over the course of a year. Within each location, a significant interaction was observed between genotype and time of year, suggesting that some genotypes respond to a greater extent than others to environmental stimuli. A similar interaction was observed for flowering data, where significant correlations were found between flowering intensity and temperature in Brazil and flowering intensity and rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire. The results demonstrate the need for local evaluation of cocoa clones and also suggest that the management practices for particular planting material may need to be fine-tuned to the location in which they are cultivated.

The role of the international cocoa germplasm database and the international cocoa quarantine centre in information management and distribution of cocoa genetic resources

A range of physiological parameters (canopy light transmission, canopy shape, leaf size, flowering and flushing intensity) were measured from the International Clone Trial, typically over the course of two years. Data were collected from six locations, these being: Brazil, Ecuador, Trinidad, Venezuela, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Canopy shape varied significantly between clones, although it showed little variation between locations. Genotypic variation in leaf size was differentially affected by the growth location; such differences appeared to underlie a genotype by environment interaction in relation to canopy light transmission. Flushing data were recorded at monthly intervals over the course of a year. Within each location, a significant interaction was observed between genotype and time of year, suggesting that some genotypes respond to a greater extent than others to environmental stimuli. A similar interaction was observed for flowering data, where significant correlations were found between flowering intensity and temperature in Brazil and flowering intensity and rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire. The results demonstrate the need for local evaluation of cocoa clones and also suggest that the management practices for particular planting material may need to be fine-tuned to the location in which they are cultivated.

An assessment of the MODIS collection 5 leaf area index product for a region of mixed coniferous forest

Canopy leaf area index (LAI), defined as the single-sided leaf area per unit ground area, is a quantitative measure of canopy foliar area. LAI is a controlling biophysical property of vegetation function, and quantifying LAI is thus vital for understanding energy, carbon and water fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. LAI is routinely available from Earth Observation (EO) instruments such as MODIS. However EO-derived estimates of LAI require validation before they are utilised by the ecosystem modelling community. Previous validation work on the MODIS collection 4 (c4) product suggested considerable error especially in forested biomes, and as a result significant modification of the MODIS LAI algorithm has been made for the most recent collection 5 (c5). As a result of these changes the current MODIS LAI product has not been widely validated. We present a validation of the MODIS c5 LAI product over a 121 km2 area of mixed coniferous forest in Oregon, USA, based on detailed ground measurements which we have upscaled using high resolution EO data. Our analysis suggests that c5 shows a much more realistic temporal LAI dynamic over c4 values for the site we examined. We find improved spatial consistency between the MODIS c5 LAI product and upscaled in situ measurements. However results also suggest that the c5 LAI product underestimates the upper range of upscaled in situ LAI measurements.

An Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

Current methods for estimating vegetation parameters are generally sub-optimal in the way they exploit information and do not generally consider uncertainties. We look forward to a future where operational dataassimilation schemes improve estimates by tracking land surface processes and exploiting multiple types of observations. Dataassimilation schemes seek to combine observations and models in a statistically optimal way taking into account uncertainty in both, but have not yet been much exploited in this area. The EO-LDAS scheme and prototype, developed under ESA funding, is designed to exploit the anticipated wealth of data that will be available under GMES missions, such as the Sentinel family of satellites, to provide improved mapping of land surface biophysical parameters. This paper describes the EO-LDAS implementation, and explores some of its core functionality. EO-LDAS is a weak constraint variational dataassimilationsystem. The prototype provides a mechanism for constraint based on a prior estimate of the state vector, a linear dynamic model, and EarthObservationdata (top-of-canopy reflectance here). The observation operator is a non-linear optical radiative transfer model for a vegetation canopy with a soil lower boundary, operating over the range 400 to 2500 nm. Adjoint codes for all model and operator components are provided in the prototype by automatic differentiation of the computer codes. In this paper, EO-LDAS is applied to the problem of daily estimation of six of the parameters controlling the radiative transfer operator over the course of a year (> 2000 state vector elements). Zero and first order process model constraints are implemented and explored as the dynamic model. The assimilation estimates all state vector elements simultaneously. This is performed in the context of a typical Sentinel-2 MSI operating scenario, using synthetic MSI observations simulated with the observation operator, with uncertainties typical of those achieved by optical sensors supposed for the data. The experiments consider a baseline state vector estimation case where dynamic constraints are applied, and assess the impact of dynamic constraints on the a posteriori uncertainties. The results demonstrate that reductions in uncertainty by a factor of up to two might be obtained by applying the sorts of dynamic constraints used here. The hyperparameter (dynamic model uncertainty) required to control the assimilation are estimated by a cross-validation exercise. The result of the assimilation is seen to be robust to missing observations with quite large data gaps.

RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models

[1] Remotely sensed, multiannual data sets of shortwave radiative surface fluxes are now available for assimilation into land surface schemes (LSSs) of climate and/or numerical weather prediction models. The RAMI4PILPS suite of virtual experiments assesses the accuracy and consistency of the radiative transfer formulations that provide the magnitudes of absorbed, reflected, and transmitted shortwave radiative fluxes in LSSs. RAMI4PILPS evaluates models under perfectly controlled experimental conditions in order to eliminate uncertainties arising from an incomplete or erroneous knowledge of the structural, spectral and illumination related canopy characteristics typical for model comparison with in situ observations. More specifically, the shortwave radiation is separated into a visible and near-infrared spectral region, and the quality of the simulated radiative fluxes is evaluated by direct comparison with a 3-D Monte Carlo reference model identified during the third phase of the Radiation transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise. The RAMI4PILPS setup thus allows to focus in particular on the numerical accuracy of shortwave radiative transfer formulations and to pinpoint to areas where future model improvements should concentrate. The impact of increasing degrees of structural and spectral subgrid variability on the simulated fluxes is documented and the relevance of any thus emerging biases with respect to gross primary production estimates and shortwave radiative forcings due to snow and fire events are investigated.

Natal nest locations of the Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in lowland rice–coconut cropping systems: a coconut penthouse or rice bunds with water frontage?

CONTEXT. Rattus tanezumi is a serious crop pest within the island of Luzon, Philippines. In intensive flood-irrigated rice field ecosystems of Luzon, female R. tanezumi are known to primarily nest within the tillers of ripening rice fields and along the banks of irrigation canals. The nesting habits of R. tanezumi in complex rice–coconut cropping systems are unknown. AIMS. To identify the natal nest locations of R. tanezumi females in rice–coconut systems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor (SMBC), Luzon, during the main breeding season to develop a management strategy that specifically targets their nesting habitat. METHODS. When rice was at the booting to ripening stage, cage-traps were placed in rice fields adjacent to coconut habitat. Thirty breeding adult R. tanezumi females were fitted with radio-collars and successfully tracked to their nest sites. KEY RESULTS. Most R. tanezumi nests (66.7%) were located in coconut groves, five nests (16.7%) were located in rice fields and five nests (16.7%) were located on the rice field edge. All nests were located above ground level and seven nests were located in coconut tree crowns. The median distance of nest sites to the nearest rice field was 22.5m. Most nest site locations had good cover of ground vegetation and understorey vegetation, but low canopy cover. Only one nest location had an understorey vegetation height of less than 20 cm. CONCLUSIONS. In the coastal lowland rice–coconut cropping systems of the SMBC, female R. tanezumi showed a preference for nesting in adjacent coconut groves. This is contrary to previous studies in intensive flood-irrigated rice ecosystems of Luzon, where the species nests mainly in the banks of irrigation canals. It is important to understand rodent breeding ecology in a specific ecosystem before implementing appropriate management strategies. IMPLICATIONS. In lowland rice–coconut cropping systems, coconut groves adjacent to rice fields should be targeted for the 20 management of R. tanezumi nest sites during the main breeding season as part of an integrated ecologically based approach to rodent pest management.

Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

Alternatives to Sedum on green roofs: Can broad leaf perennial plants offer better ‘cooling service’?

Green roof plants alter the microclimate of building roofs and may improve roof insulation. They act by providing cooling by shading, but also through transpiration of water through their stomata. However, leaf surfaces can become warmer when plants close the stomata and decrease water loss in response to drying substrate (typically associated with green roofs during summers), also reducing transpirational cooling. By using a range of contrasting plant types (Sedum mix – an industry green roof ‘standard’, Stachys byzantina, Bergenia cordifolia and Hedera hibernica) we tested the hypothesis that plants differ in their ‘cooling potential’. We firstly examined how leaf morphology influenced leaf temperature and how drying substrate altered that response. Secondly, we investigated the relationship between leaf surface temperatures and the air temperatures immediately above the canopies (i.e. potential to provide aerial cooling). Finally we measured how the plant type influenced the substrate temperature below the canopy (i.e. potential for building cooling). In our experiments Stachys outperformed the other species in terms of leaf surface cooling (even in drying substrate, e.g. 5 oC cooler compared with Sedum), substrate cooling beneath its canopy (up to 12 oC) and even - during short intervals over hottest still periods - the air above the canopy (up to 1 oC, when soil moisture was not limited). We suggest that the choice of plant species on green roofs should not be entirely dictated by what survives on the shallow substrates of extensive systems, but consideration should be given to supporting those species providing the greatest eco-system service potential.

Ventilation in a street canyon under diurnal heating conditions

To study the thermal effects on airflow in a street canyon under real heating conditions (due to diurnal solar radiation), a one-way static approach combining an urban canopy model and CFD is proposed in this paper. An urban canopy model was developed to calculate the individual temperatures of surfaces in the street canyon. The calculated surface temperature may be used as a thermal boundary for CFD simulation. The reliability of this model was validated against a field experiment in Harbin, China. Using the coupling calculation method, the wind flow and air exchange process inside an idealized street canyon was studied. The simulation results show that the thermal effect has significant impacts on the transfer process in the street canyon, especially when the approaching wind is weak. Under a real diurnal thermal forcing, the flow structure within the street canyon changes from one primary vortex to two counter-rotating vortices. The change of transfer process, induced by the buoyancy force, was determined by the thermal condition of all surfaces rather than a single one. Key words: thermal effect, street canyon, numerical simulation, transfer process, diurnal heating.

Simulated and observed fluxes of sensible and latent heat and CO2 at the WLEF-TV tower using SiB2.5

Three years of meteorological data collected at the WLEF-TV tower were used to drive a revised version of the Simple Biosphere (SiB 2.5) Model. Physiological properties and vegetation phenology were specified from satellite imagery. Simulated fluxes of heat, moisture, and carbon were compared to eddy covariance measurements taken onsite as a means of evaluating model performance on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. The model was very successful in simulating variations of latent heat flux when compared to observations, slightly less so in the simulation of sensible heat flux. The model overestimated peak values of sensible heat flux on both monthly and diurnal scales. There was evidence that the differences between observed and simulated fluxes might be linked to wetlands near the WLEF tower, which were not present in the SiB simulation. The model overestimated the magnitude of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in both summer and winter. Mid-day maximum assimilation was well represented by the model, but late afternoon simulations showed excessive carbon uptake due to misrepresentation of within-canopy shading in the model. Interannual variability was not well simulated because only a single year of satellite imagery was used to parameterize the model.

Simulated variations in atmospheric CO2 over a Wisconsin forest using a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model

Ecosystem fluxes of energy, water, and CO2 result in spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric properties. In principle, these variations can be used to quantify the fluxes through inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, and can improve the understanding of processes and falsifiability of models. We investigated the influence of ecosystem fluxes on atmospheric CO2 in the vicinity of the WLEF-TV tower in Wisconsin using an ecophysiological model (Simple Biosphere, SiB2) coupled to an atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). Model parameters were specified from satellite imagery and soil texture data. In a companion paper, simulated fluxes in the immediate tower vicinity have been compared to eddy covariance fluxes measured at the tower, with meteorology specified from tower sensors. Results were encouraging with respect to the ability of the model to capture observed diurnal cycles of fluxes. Here, the effects of fluxes in the tower footprint were also investigated by coupling SiB2 to a high-resolution atmospheric simulation, so that the model physiology could affect the meteorological environment. These experiments were successful in reproducing observed fluxes and concentration gradients during the day and at night, but revealed problems during transitions at sunrise and sunset that appear to be related to the canopy radiation parameterization in SiB2.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

The utility of aerial pan-trapping for assessing insect pollinators across vertical strata

Insect pollinators provide a critical ecosystem service by pollinating many wild flowers and crops. It is therefore essential to be able to effectively survey and monitor pollinator communities across a range of habitats, and in particular, sample the often stratified parts of the habitats where insects are found. To date, a wide array of sampling methods have been used to collect insect pollinators, but no single method has been used effectively to sample across habitat types and throughout the spatial structure of habitats. Here we present a method of ‘aerial pan-trapping’ that allows insect pollinators to be sampled across the vertical strata from the canopy of forests to agro-ecosystems. We surveyed and compared the species richness and abundance of a wide range of insect pollinators in agricultural, secondary regenerating forest and primary forest habitats in Ghana to evaluate the usefulness of this approach. In addition to confirming the efficacy of the method at heights of up to 30 metres and the effects of trap color on catch, we found greatest insect abundance in agricultural land and higher bee abundance and species richness in undisturbed forest compared to secondary forest.

The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.