Implications of non-cylindrical flux ropes for magnetic cloud reconstruction techniques and the interpretation of double flux rope events

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which exhibit signatures consistent with a magnetic flux rope structure. Techniques for reconstructing flux rope orientation from single-point in situ observations typically assume the flux rope is locally cylindrical, e.g., minimum variance analysis (MVA) and force-free flux rope (FFFR) fitting. In this study, we outline a non-cylindrical magnetic flux rope model, in which the flux rope radius and axial curvature can both vary along the length of the axis. This model is not necessarily intended to represent the global structure of MCs, but it can be used to quantify the error in MC reconstruction resulting from the cylindrical approximation. When the local flux rope axis is approximately perpendicular to the heliocentric radial direction, which is also the effective spacecraft trajectory through a magnetic cloud, the error in using cylindrical reconstruction methods is relatively small (≈ 10∘). However, as the local axis orientation becomes increasingly aligned with the radial direction, the spacecraft trajectory may pass close to the axis at two separate locations. This results in a magnetic field time series which deviates significantly from encounters with a force-free flux rope, and consequently the error in the axis orientation derived from cylindrical reconstructions can be as much as 90∘. Such two-axis encounters can result in an apparent ‘double flux rope’ signature in the magnetic field time series, sometimes observed in spacecraft data. Analysing each axis encounter independently produces reasonably accurate axis orientations with MVA, but larger errors with FFFR fitting.

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol1, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. Climate models predict an accelerated stratospheric circulation, leading to changes in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone and an increased stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Here we use an atmospheric chemistry climate model to isolate the effects of climate change from those of ozone depletion and recovery on stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux and the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index—a measure of potential human exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We show that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change moderate emissions scenario, global stratosphere-to- troposphere ozone flux increases by 23% between 1965 and 2095 as a result of climate change. During this time, the clear-sky ultraviolet radiation index decreases by 9% in northern high latitudes — a much larger effect than that of stratospheric ozone recovery — and increases by 4% in the tropics, and by up to 20% in southern high latitudes in late spring and early summer. The latter increase in the ultraviolet index is equivalent to nearly half of that generated by the Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ that was created by anthropogenic halogens. Our results suggest that climate change will alter the tropospheric ozone budget and the ultraviolet index, which would have consequences for tropospheric radiative forcing, air quality and human and ecosystem health.

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part III: the shortwave flux feedback

Previous studies using coupled general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmosphere model plays a dominant role in the modeled El Nin ̃ o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and that intermodel differences in the thermodynamical damping of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a dominant contributor to the ENSO amplitude diversity. This study presents a detailed analysis of the shortwave flux feedback (aSW) in 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, motivated by findings that aSW is the primary contributor to model thermodynamical damping errors. A ‘‘feedback decomposition method,’’ developed to elucidate the aSW biases, shows that all models un- derestimate the dynamical atmospheric response to SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to un- derestimated aSW values. Biases in the cloud response to dynamics and the shortwave interception by clouds also contribute to errors in aSW. Changes in the aSW feedback between the coupled and corresponding atmosphere-only simulations are related to changes in the mean dynamics. A large nonlinearity is found in the observed and modeled SW flux feedback, hidden when linearly cal- culating aSW. In the observations, two physical mechanisms are proposed to explain this nonlinearity: 1) a weaker subsidence response to cold SST anomalies than the ascent response to warm SST anomalies and 2) a nonlinear high-level cloud cover response to SST. The shortwave flux feedback nonlinearity tends to be underestimated by the models, linked to an underestimated nonlinearity in the dynamical response to SST. The process-based methodology presented in this study may help to correct model ENSO atmospheric biases, ultimately leading to an improved simulation of ENSO in GCMs.

Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

Sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to past, present and future environmental conditions and implications for atmospheric chemistry.

[1] We have implemented a process-based isoprene emission model in the HadGEM2 Earth-system model with coupled atmospheric chemistry in order to examine the feedback between isoprene emission and climate. Isoprene emissions and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate are estimated for preindustrial (1860–1869), present-day (2000–2009), and future (2100–2109) climate conditions. The estimate of 460 TgC/yr for present-day global total isoprene emission is consistent with previous estimates. Preindustrial isoprene emissions are estimated to be 26% higher than present-day. Future isoprene emissions using the RCP8.5 scenario are similar to present-day because increased emissions resulting from climate warming are countered by CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions. The impact of biogenic isoprene emissions on the global O3 burden and CH4 lifetime is small but locally significant, and the impact of changes in isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on the state of climate and chemistry.

Investigation of flux in flat-plate modules for membrane distillation

A theoretical model for predicting the behaviour of membrane distillation by incorporating mass and heat transfer equations has been used to find permeate fluxes, and has been validated experimentally. The model accurately predicts mass and heat transfer. The main work studied the effect of module design using a flat-plate module in laminar flow conditions. Areas of investigation included the use of channels across the membrane surface, decreasing the available membrane surface area, and widening the inlet and outlet channels. The work showed that widening the channels increased the flux. Increased flux was also obtained by the use of channels on the permeate side, though not on the feed side.

Do magnetospheric shear Alfvén waves generate sufficient electron energy flux to power the aurora?

Using a self-consistent drift-kinetic simulation code, we investigate whether electron acceleration owing to shear Alfvén waves in the plasma sheet boundary layer is sufficient to cause auroral brightening in the ionosphere. The free parameters used in the simulation code are guided by in situ observations of wave and plasma parameters in the magnetosphere at distances >4 RE from the Earth. For the perpendicular wavelength used in the study, which maps to ∼4 km at 110 km altitude, there is a clear amplitude threshold which determines whether magnetospheric shear Alfvén waves above the classical auroral acceleration region can excite sufficient electrons to create the aurora. Previous studies reported wave amplitudes that easily exceed this threshold; hence, the results reported in this paper demonstrate that auroral acceleration owing to shear Alfvén waves can occur in the magnetosphere at distances >4 RE from the Earth.

Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties

A better understanding of links between the properties of the urban environment and the exchange to the atmosphere is central to a wide range of applications. The numerous measurements of surface energy balance data in urban areas enable intercomparison of observed fluxes from distinct environments. This study analyzes a large database in two new ways. First, instead of normalizing fluxes using net all-wave radiation only the incoming radiative fluxes are used, to remove the surface attributes from the denominator. Second, because data are now available year-round, indices are developed to characterize the fraction of the surface (built; vegetation) actively engaged in energy exchanges. These account for shading patterns within city streets and seasonal changes in vegetation phenology; their impact on the partitioning of the incoming radiation is analyzed. Data from 19 sites in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia (including 6-yr-long observation campaigns) are used to derive generalized surface–flux relations. The midday-period outgoing radiative fraction decreases with an increasing total active surface index, the stored energy fraction increases with an active built index, and the latent heat fraction increases with an active vegetated index. Parameterizations of these energy exchange ratios as a function of the surface indices [i.e., the Flux Ratio–Active Index Surface Exchange (FRAISE) scheme] are developed. These are used to define four urban zones that characterize energy partitioning on the basis of their active surface indices. An independent evaluation of FRAISE, using three additional sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE), yields accurate predictions of the midday flux partitioning at each location.

Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variability

The large scale urban consumption of energy (LUCY) model simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. If better information about individual cities is available within this (open-source) database, then the accuracy of this model can only improve, to provide the community data from global-scale climate modelling or the individual city scale in the future. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7–3.6 W m−2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89–96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m−2 at 1 pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

The impact of diurnal variability in sea surface temperature on the atlantic air-sea CO2 flux

The effect of diurnal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) on the air-sea flux of CO2 over the central Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea (60 S–60 N, 60 W–45 E) is evaluated for 2005–2006. We use high spatial resolution hourly satellite ocean skin temperature data to determine the diurnal warming (ΔSST). The CO2 flux is then computed using three different temperature fields – a foundation temperature (Tf, measured at a depth where there is no diurnal variation), Tf, plus the hourly ΔSST and Tf, plus the monthly average of the ΔSSTs. This is done in conjunction with a physically-based parameterisation for the gas transfer velocity (NOAA-COARE). The differences between the fluxes evaluated for these three different temperature fields quantify the effects of both diurnal warming and diurnal covariations. We find that including diurnal warming increases the CO2 flux out of this region of the Atlantic for 2005–2006 from 9.6 Tg C a−1 to 30.4 Tg C a−1 (hourly ΔSST) and 31.2 Tg C a−1 (monthly average of ΔSST measurements). Diurnal warming in this region, therefore, has a large impact on the annual net CO2 flux but diurnal covariations are negligible. However, in this region of the Atlantic the uptake and outgassing of CO2 is approximately balanced over the annual cycle, so although we find diurnal warming has a very large effect here, the Atlantic as a whole is a very strong carbon sink (e.g. −920 Tg C a−1 Takahashi et al., 2002) making this is a small contribution to the Atlantic carbon budget.

Impact of city changes and weather on anthropogenic heat flux in Europe 1995–2015

How people live, work, move from place to place, consume and the technologies they use all affect heat emissions in a city which influences urban weather and climate. Here we document changes to a global anthropogenic heat flux (QF) model to enhance its spatial (30′′ × 30′′ to 0.5° × 0.5°) resolution and temporal coverage (historical, current and future). QF is estimated across Europe (1995–2015), considering changes in temperature, population and energy use. While on average QF is small (of the order 1.9–4.6 W m−2 across all the urban areas of Europe), significant spatial variability is documented (maximum 185 W m−2). Changes in energy consumption due to changes in climate are predicted to cause a 13% (11%) increase in QF on summer (winter) weekdays. The largest impact results from changes in temperature conditions which influences building energy use; for winter, with the coldest February on record, the mean flux for urban areas of Europe is 4.56 W m−2 and for summer (warmest July on record) is 2.23 W m−2. Detailed results from London highlight the spatial resolution used to model the QF is critical and must be appropriate for the application at hand, whether scientific understanding or decision making.

Reconstruction and prediction of variations in the open solar magnetic flux and interplanetary conditions

Historic geomagnetic activity observations have been used to reveal centennial variations in the open solar flux and the near-Earth heliospheric conditions (the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed). The various methods are in very good agreement for the past 135 years when there were sufficient reliable magnetic observatories in operation to eliminate problems due to site-specific errors and calibration drifts. This review underlines the physical principles that allow these reconstructions to be made, as well as the details of the various algorithms employed and the results obtained. Discussion is included of: the importance of the averaging timescale; the key differences between “range” and “interdiurnal variability” geomagnetic data; the need to distinguish source field sector structure from heliospherically-imposed field structure; the importance of ensuring that regressions used are statistically robust; and uncertainty analysis. The reconstructions are exceedingly useful as they provide calibration between the in-situ spacecraft measurements from the past five decades and the millennial records of heliospheric behaviour deduced from measured abundances of cosmogenic radionuclides found in terrestrial reservoirs. Continuity of open solar flux, using sunspot number to quantify the emergence rate, is the basis of a number of models that have been very successful in reproducing the variation derived from geomagnetic activity. These models allow us to extend the reconstructions back to before the development of the magnetometer and to cover the Maunder minimum. Allied to the radionuclide data, the models are revealing much about how the Sun and heliosphere behaved outside of grand solar maxima and are providing a means of predicting how solar activity is likely to evolve now that the recent grand maximum (that had prevailed throughout the space age) has come to an end.

The 22-Year Hale Cycle in cosmic ray flux: evidence for direct heliospheric modulation

The ability to predict times of greater galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes is important for reducing the hazards caused by these particles to satellite communications, aviation, or astronauts. The 11-year solar-cycle variation in cosmic rays is highly correlated with the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field. Differences in GCR flux during alternate solar cycles yield a 22-year cycle, known as the Hale Cycle, which is thought to be due to different particle drift patterns when the northern solar pole has predominantly positive (denoted as qA>0 cycle) or negative (qA<0) polarities. This results in the onset of the peak cosmic-ray flux at Earth occurring earlier during qA>0 cycles than for qA<0 cycles, which in turn causes the peak to be more dome-shaped for qA>0 and more sharply peaked for qA<0. In this study, we demonstrate that properties of the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field are different during the declining phase of the qA<0 and qA>0 solar cycles, when the difference in GCR flux is most apparent. This suggests that particle drifts may not be the sole mechanism responsible for the Hale Cycle in GCR flux at Earth. However, we also demonstrate that these polarity-dependent heliospheric differences are evident during the space-age but are much less clear in earlier data: using geomagnetic reconstructions, we show that for the period of 1905 - 1965, alternate polarities do not give as significant a difference during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Thus we suggest that the 22-year cycle in cosmic-ray flux is at least partly the result of direct modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field and that this effect may be primarily limited to the grand solar maximum of the space-age.