Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F<2 >) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead.

Substitutional and orientational disorder in organic crystals: a symmetry-adapted ensemble model

Modelling of disorder in organic crystals is highly desirable since it would allow thermodynamic stabilities and other disorder-sensitive properties to be estimated for such systems. Two disordered organic molecular systems are modeled using a symmetry-adapted ensemble approach, in which the disordered system is treated as an ensemble of the configurations of a supercell with respect to substitution of one disorder component for another. Computation time is kept manageable by performing calculations only on the symmetrically inequivalent configurations. Calculations are presented on a substitutionally disordered system, the dichloro/dibromobenzene solid solution, and on an orientationally disordered system, eniluracil, and the resultant free energies, disorder patterns, and system properties are discussed. The results are found to be in agreement with experiment following manual removal of physically implausible configurations from ensemble averages, highlighting the dangers of a completely automated approach to organic crystal thermodynamics which ignores the barriers to equilibration once the crystal has been formed.

Computer simulations of the structure of colloidal ferrofluids

The structure of a ferrofluid under the influence of an external magnetic field is expected to become anisotropic due to the alignment of the dipoles into the direction of the external field, and subsequently to the formation of particle chains due to the attractive head to tail orientations of the ferrofluid particles. Knowledge about the structure of a colloidal ferrofluid can be inferred from scattering data via the measurement of structure factors. We have used molecular-dynamics simulations to investigate the structure of both monodispersed and polydispersed ferrofluids. The results for the isotropic structure factor for monodispersed samples are similar to previous data by Camp and Patey that were obtained using an alternative Monte Carlo simulation technique, but in a different parameter region. Here we look in addition at bidispersed samples and compute the anisotropic structure factor by projecting the q vector onto the XY and XZ planes separately, when the magnetic field was applied along the z axis. We observe that the XY- plane structure factor as well as the pair distribution functions are quite different from those obtained for the XZ plane. Further, the two- dimensional structure factor patterns are investigated for both monodispersed and bidispersed samples under different conditions. In addition, we look at the scaling exponents of structure factors. Our results should be of value to interpret scattering data on ferrofluids obtained under the influence of an external field.

A robust two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded network for the predictable assembly of ternary co-crystals of furosemide

Consideration of the geometrical features of the functional groups present in furosemide has enabled synthesis of a series of ternary co-crystals with predictable structural features, containing a robust asymmetric two-dimensional network.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Rayleigh scattering by hexagonal ice crystals and the interpretation of dual-polarisation radar measurements

Dual-polarisation radar measurements provide valuable information about the shapes and orientations of atmospheric ice particles. For quantitative interpretation of these data in the Rayleigh regime, common practice is to approximate the true ice crystal shape with that of a spheroid. Calculations using the discrete dipole approximation for a wide range of crystal aspect ratios demonstrate that approximating hexagonal plates as spheroids leads to significant errors in the predicted differential reflectivity, by as much as 1.5 dB. An empirical modification of the shape factors in Gans's spheroid theory was made using the numerical data. The resulting simple expressions, like Gans's theory, can be applied to crystals in any desired orientation, illuminated by an arbitrarily polarised wave, but are much more accurate for hexagonal particles. Calculations of the scattering from more complex branched and dendritic crystals indicate that these may be accurately modelled using the new expression, but with a reduced permittivity dependent on the volume of ice relative to an enclosing hexagonal prism.

Monitoring one-electron photo-oxidation of guanine in DNA crystals using ultrafast infrared spectroscopy

To understand the molecular origins of diseases caused by ultraviolet and visible light, and also to develop photodynamic therapy, it is important to resolve the mechanism of photoinduced DNA damage. Damage to DNA bound to a photosensitizer molecule frequently proceeds by one-electron photo-oxidation of guanine, but the precise dynamics of this process are sensitive to the location and the orientation of the photosensitizer, which are very difficult to define in solution. To overcome this, ultrafast time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectroscopy was performed on photoexcited ruthenium polypyridyl–DNA crystals, the atomic structure of which was determined by X-ray crystallography. By combining the X-ray and TRIR data we are able to define both the geometry of the reaction site and the rates of individual steps in a reversible photoinduced electron-transfer process. This allows us to propose an individual guanine as the reaction site and, intriguingly, reveals that the dynamics in the crystal state are quite similar to those observed in the solvent medium.

Colloidal gas aphrons based separation process for the purification and fractionation of natural phenolic extracts

Following previous studies, the aim of this work is to further investigate the application of colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) to the recovery of polyphenols from a grape marc ethanolic extract with particular focus on exploring the use of a non-ionic food grade surfactant (Tween 20) as an alternative to the more toxic cationic surfactant CTAB. Different batch separation trials in a flotation column were carried out to evaluate the influence of surfactant type and concentration and processing parameters (such as pH, drainage time, CGA/extract volumetric and molar ratio) on the recovery of total and specific phenolic compounds. The possibility of achieving selective separation and concentration of different classes of phenolic compounds and non-phenolic compounds was also assessed, together with the influence of the process on the antioxidant capacity of the recovered compounds. The process led to good recovery, limited loss of antioxidant capacity, but low selectivity under the tested conditions. Results showed the possibility of using Tween 20 with a separation mechanism mainly driven by hydrophobic interactions. Volumetric ratio rather than the molar ratio was the key operating parameter in the recovery of polyphenols by CGA.

Separation of natural colorants from the fermented broth of filamentous fungi using colloidal gas aphrons

There is a worldwide interest in the development of processes for producing colorants from natural sources. Microorganisms provide an alternative source of natural colorants produced by cultivation technology and extracted from the fermented broth. The aim of the present work was to study the recovery of red colorants from the fermented broth of Talaromyces amestolkiae using the technique of colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) comprising surfactant-stabilized microbubbles. Preliminary experiments were performed to evaluate the red colorants’ solubility in different organic solvents, octanol/water partitioning, and their stability in surfactant solutions, namely hexadecyl trimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), and polyoxyethylenesorbitan monolaurate (Tween 20), which are cationic, anionic and nonionic surfactants, respectively. The first recovery experiments were carried out using CGA generated by these surfactants at different volumetric ratios (VR, 3–18). Subsequently, two different approaches to generate CGA were investigated at VR values of 6 and 12: the first involved the use of CTAB at pH 6.9–10.0, and the second involved the use of Tween 20 using red colorants partially dissolved in ethanol and Tween 20. The characterization results showed that red colorants have a hydrophilic nature. The highest recoveries were obtained with Tween 20 (78%) and CTAB (70%). These results demonstrated that the recovery of the colorants was driven by both electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions. The VR was found to be an important operating parameter and at VR 12 with CTAB (at pH 9) maximum recovery, partitioning coefficient (K = 5.39) and selectivity in relation to protein and sugar (SP = 3.75 and SS = 7.20 respectively) were achieved. Furthermore, with Tween 20, the separation was driven mainly by hydrophobic interactions. Overall CGA show promise for the recovery of red colorants from a fermented broth. Although better results were obtained with CTAB than with Tween 20 the latter may be more suitable for some application due to its lower toxicity.