Are dangerous jobs paid better? European evidence

This article tests whether workers are indifferent between risky and safe jobs provided that, in labour market equilibrium, wages should serve as a utility equalizing device. Workers’ preferences are elicited through a partial measure of overall job satisfaction: satisfaction with job-related risk. Given that selectivity turns out to be important, we use selectivity corrected models. Results show that wage differentials do not exclusively compensate workers for being in dangerous jobs. However, as job characteristics are substitutable in workers’ utility, they could feel satisfied, even if they were not fully compensated financially for working in dangerous jobs.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Profiling text comprehension impairments in aphasia

Background: Research in aphasia has focused on acquired dyslexias at the single word level, with a paucity of assessment techniques and rehabilitation approaches for individuals with difficulty at the text level. A rich literature from research with paediatric populations and healthy non-brain damaged, skilled adult readers allows the component processes that are important for text reading to be defined and more appropriate assessments to be devised. Aims: To assess the component processes of text reading in a small group of individuals with aphasia who report difficulties reading at the text level. Do assessments of component processes in reading comprehension reveal distinct profiles of text comprehension? To what extent are text comprehension difficulties caused by underlying linguistic and/or cognitive deficits? Methods & Procedures: Four individuals with mild aphasia who reported difficulties reading at the text level took part in a case-series study. Published assessments were used to confirm the presence of text comprehension impairment. Participants completed a range of assessments to provide a profile of their linguistic and cognitive skills, focusing on processes known to be important for text comprehension. We identified the following areas for assessment: reading speed, language skills (single word and sentence), inferencing, working memory and metacognitive skills (monitoring and strategy use). Outcomes & Results: Performance was compared against age-matched adult control data. One participant presented with a trend for impaired abilities in inferencing, with all other assessed skills being within normal limits. The other three had identified linguistic and working memory difficulties. One presented with a residual deficit in accessing single word meaning that affected text comprehension. The other two showed no clear link between sentence processing difficulties and text comprehension impairments. Across these three, data suggested a link between verbal working memory capacity and specific inferencing skills. Conclusions: Successful text reading relies on a number of component processes. In this paper we have made a start in defining those component processes and devising tasks suitable to assess them. From our results, assessment of verbal working memory and inferencing appears to be critical for understanding text comprehension impairments in aphasia. It is possible that rehabilitation input can capitalize on key meta-cognitive skills (monitoring, strategy use) to support functional reading in the face of existing linguistic, text comprehension and memory impairments.

Production and on-line comprehension of definite articles and clitic pronouns by Greek sequential bilingual children and monolingual children with specific language impairment

The present study compared production and on-line comprehension of definite articles and third person direct object clitic pronouns in Greek-speaking typically developing, sequential bilingual (L2-TD) children and monolingual children with specific language impairment (L1-SLI). Twenty Turkish Greek L2-TD children, 16 Greek L1-SLI children, and 31 L1-TD Greek children participated in a production task examining definite articles and clitic pronouns and, in an on-line comprehension task, involving grammatical sentences with definite articles and clitics and sentences with grammatical violations induced by omitted articles and clitics. The results showed that the L2-TD children were sensitive to the grammatical violations despite low production. In contrast, the children with SLI were not sensitive to clitic omission in the on-line task, despite high production. These results support a dissociation between production and on-line comprehension in L2 children and for impaired grammatical representations and lack of automaticity in children with SLI. They also suggest that on-line comprehension tasks may complement production tasks by differentiating between the language profiles of L2-TD children and children with SLI.

Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

The anterior temporal lobes support residual comprehension in Wernicke’s aphasia

Wernicke’s aphasia occurs following a stroke to classical language comprehension regions in the left temporoparietal cortex. Consequently, auditory-verbal comprehension is significantly impaired in Wernicke’s aphasia but the capacity to comprehend visually presented materials (written words and pictures) is partially spared. This study used fMRI to investigate the neural basis of written word and picture semantic processing in Wernicke’s aphasia, with the wider aim of examining how the semantic system is altered following damage to the classical comprehension regions. Twelve participants with Wernicke’s aphasia and twelve control participants performed semantic animate-inanimate judgements and a visual height judgement baseline task. Whole brain and ROI analysis in Wernicke’s aphasia and control participants found that semantic judgements were underpinned by activation in the ventral and anterior temporal lobes bilaterally. The Wernicke’s aphasia group displayed an “over-activation” in comparison to control participants, indicating that anterior temporal lobe regions become increasingly influential following reduction in posterior semantic resources. Semantic processing of written words in Wernicke’s aphasia was additionally supported by recruitment of the right anterior superior temporal lobe, a region previously associated with recovery from auditory-verbal comprehension impairments. Overall, the results concord with models which indicate that the anterior temporal lobes are crucial for multimodal semantic processing and that these regions may be accessed without support from classic posterior comprehension regions.

Does more detailed information mean better performance? An experiment in information explicitness

Purpose – Investors are now able to analyse more noise-free news to inform their trading decisions than ever before. Their expectation that more information means better performance is not supported by previous psychological experiments which argue that too much information actually impairs performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the degree of information explicitness improves stock market performance. Design/methodology/approach – An experiment is conducted in a computer laboratory to examine a trading simulation manipulated from a real market-shock. Participants’ performance efficiency and effectiveness are measured separately. Findings – The results indicate that the explicitness of information neither improves nor impairs participants’ performance effectiveness from the perspectives of returns, share and cash positions, and trading volumes. However, participants’ performance efficiency is significantly affected by information explicitness. Originality/value – The novel approach and findings of this research add to the knowledge of the impact of information explicitness on the quality of decision making in a financial market environment.

From harmonisation to better, smart and fit food law

As the European Union (EU) approaches its 60th anniversary, it is worth assessing progress towards a key objective – the abolition of barriers to the marketing of food in the EU. Food has always created particular problems for the EU as national differences in diets, culture and geography make standardisation impossible. Early attempts focussed on direct measures to harmonise requirements or, later, to create an ‘internal market’. Subsequently a changed emphasis brought about the need to focus more clearly on the harmonisation of food safety. More widely, the recent recognition that too much legislation can itself create barriers has led legislators to attempt to consider more carefully the impact of their efforts. This paper reflects on the various stages in the creation of harmonised food controls and considers how case law has impacted the process. Today there are still differences and complete barrier-free trade seems some way off.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Internationalization motives: sell more, buy better, upgrade and escape

Purpose – The purpose of this the paper is to review the motives for internationalization to clarify previous arguments and provide a theory-driven classification. Design/methodology/approach – The authors build on behavioral economics and propose a classification of internationalization motives as the result of the interaction among two dimensions, an economics-driven exploitation of existing resources or exploration of new resources, and a psychology-driven search for better host country conditions or avoidance of poor home country conditions. Findings – These two dimensions result in four internationalization motives: sell more, in which the company exploits existing resources at home and obtains better host country conditions; buy better, in which the company exploits existing resources abroad and avoids poor home country conditions; upgrade, in which the company explores for new resources, and it obtains better host country conditions; and escape, in which the company explores for new resources and avoids poor home country conditions. Originality/value – This theory-driven classification provides predictive power for future analyses of internationalization motives.

Better dead: J. M. Barrie’s first book and the shilling fiction market

This article provides a critical and bibliographical discussion of J. M. Barrie’s neglected first book, Better Dead, published by Swan Sonnenschein, Lowrey & Co. in 1887. Drawing on previously unexamined evidence in the Sonnenschein archive, it shows how this shilling novel was marketed and sold to its readers at railway bookstalls, and argues that the content and style of the story was conditioned by its form. Examining the many references and allusions in the story, it proposes that the work is best understood as a satire on contemporary political, social and literary themes. The article also shows how, contrary to all published accounts, the author actually earned a small amount of money from a work which, in spite of his efforts, refused to stay dead.

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.