The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.

Educational attainment in poor comprehenders

To date, only one study has investigated educational attainment in poor (reading) comprehenders, providing evidence of poor performance on national UK school tests at age 11 years relative to peers (Cain & Oakhill, 2006). In the present study, we adopted a longitudinal approach, tracking attainment on such tests from 11 years to the end of compulsory schooling in the UK (age 16 years). We aimed to investigate the proposal that educational weaknesses (defined as poor performance on national assessments) might become more pronounced over time, as the curriculum places increasing demands on reading comprehension. Participants comprised 15 poor comprehenders and 15 controls; groups were matched for chronological age, nonverbal reasoning ability and decoding skill. Children were identified at age 9 years using standardised measures of nonverbal reasoning, decoding and reading comprehension. These measures, along with a measure of oral vocabulary knowledge, were repeated at age 11 years. Data on educational attainment were collected from all participants (N = 30) at age 11 and from a subgroup (n = 21) at 16 years. Compared to controls, educational attainment in poor comprehenders was lower at ages 11 and 16 years, an effect that was significant at 11 years. When poor comprehenders were compared to national performance levels, they showed significantly lower performance at both time points. Low educational attainment was not evident for all poor comprehenders. Nonetheless, our findings point to a link between reading comprehension difficulties in mid to late childhood and poor educational outcomes at ages 11 and 16 years. At these ages, pupils in the UK are making key transitions: they move from primary to secondary schools at 11, and out of compulsory schooling at 16.

The effects of distraction on metacognition and metacognition on distraction: evidence from recognition memory

The effects of auditory distraction in memory tasks have been examined to date with procedures that minimize participants’ control over their own memory processes. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to metacognitive control factors which might affect memory performance. In this study, we investigate the effects of auditory distraction on metacognitive control of memory, examining the effects of auditory distraction in recognition tasks utilizing the metacognitive framework of Koriat and Goldsmith (1996), to determine whether strategic regulation of memory accuracy is impacted by auditory distraction. Results replicated previous findings in showing that auditory distraction impairs memory performance in tasks minimizing participants’ metacognitive control (forced-report test). However, the results revealed also that when metacognitive control is allowed (free-report tests), auditory distraction impacts upon a range of metacognitive indices. In the present study, auditory distraction undermined accuracy of metacognitive monitoring (resolution), reduced confidence in responses provided and, correspondingly, increased participants’ propensity to withhold responses in free-report recognition. Crucially, changes in metacognitive processes were related to impairment in free-report recognition performance, as the use of the ‘don’t know’ option under distraction led to a reduction in the number of correct responses volunteered in free-report tests. Overall, the present results show how auditory distraction exerts its influence on memory performance via both memory and metamemory processes.

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

Let’s look at leeks! Picture books increase toddlers’ willingness to look at, taste and consume unfamiliar vegetables

Repeatedly looking at picture books about fruits and vegetables with parents enhances young children’s visual preferences towards the foods in the book (Houston-Price et al, 2009) and influences their willingness to taste these foods (Houston-Price, Butler & Shiba, 2009). This article explores whether the effects of picture book exposure are affected by infants' initial familiarity with and liking for the foods presented. In two experiments parents of 19- to 26-month-old toddlers were asked to read a picture book about a liked, disliked or unfamiliar fruit or vegetable with their child every day for two weeks. The impact of the intervention on both infants’ visual preferences and their eating behaviour was determined by the initial status of the target food, with the strongest effects for foods that were initially unfamiliar. Most strikingly, toddlers consumed more of the unfamiliar vegetable they had seen in their picture book than of a matched control vegetable. Results confirm the potential for picture books to play a positive role in encouraging healthy eating in your children.

Once upon a time, there was a fabulous funambulist: What children learn about the “high-level” vocabulary they encounter while listening to stories

Previous research has shown that listening to stories supports vocabulary growth in preschool and school-aged children and that lexical entries for even very difficult or rare words can be established if these are defined when they are first introduced. However, little is known about the nature of the lexical representations children form for the words they encounter while listening to stories, or whether these are sufficiently robust to support the child’s own use of such ‘high-level’ vocabulary. This study explored these questions by administering multiple assessments of children’s knowledge about a set of newly-acquired vocabulary. Four- and 6-year-old children were introduced to nine difficult new words (including nouns, verbs and adjectives) through three exposures to a story read by their class teacher. The story included a definition of each new word at its first encounter. Learning of the target vocabulary was assessed by means of two tests of semantic understanding – a forced choice picture-selection task and a definition production task – and a grammaticality judgment task, which asked children to choose between a syntactically-appropriate and syntactically-inappropriate usage of the word. Children in both age groups selected the correct pictorial representation and provided an appropriate definition for the target words in all three word classes significantly more often than they did for a matched set of non-exposed control words. However, only the older group was able to identify the syntactically-appropriate sentence frames in the grammaticality judgment task. Further analyses elucidate some of the components of the lexical representations children lay down when they hear difficult new vocabulary in stories and how different tests of word knowledge might overlap in their assessment of these components.

Deficits in agency in schizophrenia, and additional deficits in body image, body schema, and internal timing, in passivity symptoms

Individuals with schizophrenia, particularly those with passivity symptoms, may not feel in control of their actions, believing them to be controlled by external agents. Cognitive operations that contribute to these symptoms may include abnormal processing in agency as well as body representations that deal with body schema and body image. However, these operations in schizophrenia are not fully understood, and the questions of general versus specific deficits in individuals with different symptom profiles remain unanswered. Using the projected-hand illusion (a digital video version of the rubber-hand illusion) with synchronous and asynchronous stroking (500 ms delay), and a hand laterality judgment task, we assessed sense of agency, body image, and body schema in 53 people with clinically stable schizophrenia (with a current, past, and no history of passivity symptoms) and 48 healthy controls. The results revealed a stable trait in schizophrenia with no difference between clinical subgroups (sense of agency) and some quantitative (specific) differences depending on the passivity symptom profile (body image and body schema). Specifically, a reduced sense of self-agency was a common feature of all clinical subgroups. However, subgroup comparisons showed that individuals with passivity symptoms (both current and past) had significantly greater deficits on tasks assessing body image and body schema, relative to the other groups. In addition, patients with current passivity symptoms failed to demonstrate the normal reduction in body illusion typically seen with a 500 ms delay in visual feedback (asynchronous condition), suggesting internal timing problems. Altogether, the results underscore self-abnormalities in schizophrenia, provide evidence for both trait abnormalities and state changes specific to passivity symptoms, and point to a role for internal timing deficits as a mechanistic explanation for external cues becoming a possible source of self-body input.

Climate change: dichotomy of drought and deluge

Freshwater deficits and heavy rainfall have been projected to intensify in a warming climate. An analysis of hydrological data suggests that past changes in wet and dry extremes were more complex than a simple amplification of existing patterns.

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections

The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of possible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensitivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some constraints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry–climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models’ water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

An optimized method for the extraction of bacterial mRNA from plant roots infected with Escherichia coli O157:H7

Analysis of microbial gene expression during host colonization provides valuable information on the nature of interaction, beneficial or pathogenic, and the adaptive processes involved. Isolation of bacterial mRNA for in planta analysis can be challenging where host nucleic acid may dominate the preparation, or inhibitory compounds affect downstream analysis, e.g., quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qPCR), microarray, or RNA-seq. The goal of this work was to optimize the isolation of bacterial mRNA of food-borne pathogens from living plants. Reported methods for recovery of phytopathogen-infected plant material, using hot phenol extraction and high concentration of bacterial inoculation or large amounts of infected tissues, were found to be inappropriate for plant roots inoculated with Escherichia coli O157:H7. The bacterial RNA yields were too low and increased plant material resulted in a dominance of plant RNA in the sample. To improve the yield of bacterial RNA and reduce the number of plants required, an optimized method was developed which combines bead beating with directed bacterial lysis using SDS and lysozyme. Inhibitory plant compounds, such as phenolics and polysaccharides, were counteracted with the addition of high-molecular-weight polyethylene glycol and hexadecyltrimethyl ammonium bromide. The new method increased the total yield of bacterial mRNA substantially and allowed assessment of gene expression by qPCR. This method can be applied to other bacterial species associated with plant roots, and also in the wider context of food safety.

Investigating early years teachers’ understanding and response to children’s preconceptions

This paper focuses on young children’s scientific preconceptions and discusses teachers’ identification of these preconceptions when teaching science in the early years, on which research is still limited. This paper is based on the theoretical framework of constructivism and it defines preconceptions as children’s erroneous concepts prior to formal education. A two phase case study approach was employed, facilitating in-depth investigation though the use of questionnaires, interviews and observations. The results indicate that the teachers did not dedicate time to identify children’s preconceptions when planning and teaching science, even when acknowledging preconceptions’ possible existence. This indicates a possible lack of appreciation of the importance of children’s preconceptions of the consequences when ignoring them. The results also indicate the need for further training and professional development in relation to the teaching of early-years science, especially since only a very small percentage of early years teachers tend to study science during their years compulsory education. A number of suggestions are also provided for practice and policy that can be useful for other subjects as well.