The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Impact of lipoprotein lipase gene polymorphism, S447X, on postprandial triacylglycerol and glucose response to sequential meal ingestion

Lipoprotein lipase (LPL) is a key rate-limiting enzyme for the hydrolysis of triacylglycerol (TAG) in chylomicrons and very low-density lipoprotein. Given that postprandial assessment of lipoprotein metabolism may provide a more physiological perspective of disturbances in lipoprotein homeostasis compared to assessment in the fasting state, we have investigated the influence of two commonly studied LPL polymorphisms (rs320, HindIII; rs328, S447X) on postprandial lipaemia, in 261 participants using a standard sequential meal challenge. S447 homozygotes had lower fasting HDL-C (p = 0.015) and a trend for higher fasting TAG (p = 0.057) concentrations relative to the 447X allele carriers. In the postprandial state, there was an association of the S447X polymorphism with postprandial TAG and glucose, where S447 homozygotes had 12% higher TAG area under the curve (AUC) (p = 0.037), 8.4% higher glucose-AUC (p = 0.006) and 22% higher glucose-incremental area under the curve (IAUC) (p = 0.042). A significant gene–gender interaction was observed for fasting TAG (p = 0.004), TAG-AUC (Pinteraction = 0.004) and TAG-IAUC (Pinteraction = 0.016), where associations were only evident in men. In conclusion, our study provides novel findings of an effect of LPL S447X polymorphism on the postprandial glucose and gender-specific impact of the polymorphism on fasting and postprandial TAG concentrations in response to sequential meal challenge in healthy participants

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Optimal power management strategy for energy storage with stochastic loads

In this paper, a power management strategy (PMS) has been developed for the control of energy storage in a system subjected to loads of random duration. The PMS minimises the costs associated with the energy consumption of specific systems powered by a primary energy source and equipped with energy storage, under the assumption that the statistical distribution of load durations is known. By including the variability of the load in the cost function, it was possible to define the optimality criteria for the power flow of the storage. Numerical calculations have been performed obtaining the control strategies associated with the global minimum in energy costs, for a wide range of initial conditions of the system. The results of the calculations have been tested on a MATLAB/Simulink model of a rubber tyre gantry (RTG) crane equipped with a flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and subjected to a test cycle, which corresponds to the real operation of a crane in the Port of Felixstowe. The results of the model show increased energy savings and reduced peak power demand with respect to existing control strategies, indicating considerable potential savings for port operators in terms of energy and maintenance costs.

Design and analysis of a haptic device design for large and fast movements

Haptic devices tend to be kept small as it is easier to achieve a large change of stiffness with a low associated apparent mass. If large movements are required there is a usually a reduction in the quality of the haptic sensations which can be displayed. The typical measure of haptic device performance is impedance-width (z-width) but this does not account for actuator saturation, usable workspace or the ability to do rapid movements. This paper presents the analysis and evaluation of a haptic device design, utilizing a variant of redundant kinematics, sometimes referred to as a macro-micro configuration, intended to allow large and fast movements without loss of impedance-width. A brief mathematical analysis of the design constraints is given and a prototype system is described where the effects of different elements of the control scheme can be examined to better understand the potential benefits and trade-offs in the design. Finally, the performance of the system is evaluated using a Fitts’ Law test and found to compare favourably with similar evaluations of smaller workspace devices.