Addressee orientation in political speeches: tracing the dialogical 'other' in argumentative monologue

This article suggests that the addressees as the dialogical ‘other’ loom large in monological political speeches. However, political speeches are produced under conditions of addressee heterogeneity, i.e. the speakers do not actually know who they will be talking to. It will be argued that the addressees are nevertheless a crucial element in speakers’ context models, that speakers orientate towards imagined addressees and that certain aspects – what possible addressees may do, think or believe and that they are a part of an imagined community – are particularly relevant from the speakers’ point of view. An analysis of addressee orientation in political speeches aims at reconstructing speakers’ conceptualisations of possible addressees. The analysis reveals patterns of addressee orientation which suggest that the addressees are framed in terms of presumed nearness (i.e. agreement) or distance (i.e. disagreement) to the speakers. Both presumed agreement and disagreement will be discussed in terms of how the speakers aim to impose their default perspectives on the addressees. The analysis is based on examples from a substantial corpus of German chancellors’ political speeches from 1951-2001.

Near-infrared water vapour self-continuum at close to room temperature

The gaseous absorption of solar radiation within near-infrared atmospheric windows in the Earth's atmosphere is dominated by the water vapour continuum. Recent measurements by Baranov et al. (2011) [17] in 2500 cm−1 (4 μm) window and by Ptashnik et al. (2011) [18] in a few near-infrared windows revealed that the self-continuum absorption is typically an order of magnitude stronger than given by the MT_CKD continuum model prior to version 2.5. Most of these measurements, however, were made at elevated temperatures, which makes their application to atmospheric conditions difficult. Here we report new laboratory measurements of the self-continuum absorption at 289 and 318 K in the near-infrared spectral region 1300–8000 cm−1, using a multipass 30 m base cell with total optical path 612 m. Our results confirm the main conclusions of the previous measurements both within bands and in windows. Of particular note is that we present what we believe to be the first near-room temperature measurement using Fourier Transform Spectrometry of the self-continuum in the 6200 cm−1 (1.6 μm) window, which provides tentative evidence that, at such temperatures, the water vapour continuum absorption may be as strong as it is in 2.1 μm and 4 μm windows and up to 2 orders of magnitude stronger than the MT_CKD-2.5 continuum. We note that alternative methods of measuring the continuum in this window have yielded widely differing assessment of its strength, which emphasises the need for further measurements.

Building from scratch a marketing services giant by acquisition: case study and interview with Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive of WPP

Purpose – Mergers and acquisitions are among the most intensely used strategic decisions. Yet research by both academics and consulting groups suggests that many mergers and acquisitions fail to add value. On the other hand there are many companies that successfully use mergers and acquisition to grow and add shareholder value. One such company is WPP. The aim of this paper is to explore why WPP has been successful in its acquisition strategy while so many other companies fail. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on documentary evidence and a semi-structured interview with Sir Martin Sorrell – Chief Executive and founder of WPP. Research limitations/implications – The case study offers a unique insight into thinking of a successful acquirer and sheds light on how mergers and acquisitions are managed by WPP. However, because of its design the findings are not generalisable. Originality/value – This case study sheds light on how mergers and acquisitions can be used to create a £9 billion company from a standing start. Furthermore, very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of entrepreneurial Chief Executives who established the business, grew it to become the largest and most profitable marketing services company in the world and engineered close to 300 acquisitions.

Non-ergodicity of inviscid two-dimensional flow on a beta-plane and on the surface of a rotating sphere

It is shown that, for a sufficiently large value of β, two-dimensional flow on a doubly-periodic beta-plane cannot be ergodic (phase-space filling) on the phase-space surface of constant energy and enstrophy. A corresponding result holds for flow on the surface of a rotating sphere, for a sufficiently rapid rotation rate Ω. This implies that the higher-order, non-quadratic invariants are exerting a significant influence on the statistical evolution of the flow. The proof relies on the existence of a finite-amplitude Liapunov stability theorem for zonally symmetric basic states with a non-vanishing absolute-vorticity gradient. When the domain size is much larger than the size of a typical eddy, then a sufficient condition for non-ergodicity is that the wave steepness ε < 1, where ε = 2[surd radical]2Z/βU in the planar case and $\epsilon = 2^{\frac{1}{4}} a^{\frac{5}{2}}Z^{\frac{7}{4}}/\Omega U^{\frac{5}{2}}$ in the spherical case, and where Z is the enstrophy, U the r.m.s. velocity, and a the radius of the sphere. This result may help to explain why numerical simulations of unforced beta-plane turbulence (in which ε decreases in time) seem to evolve into a non-ergodic regime at large scales.

The 22-Year Hale Cycle in cosmic ray flux: evidence for direct heliospheric modulation

The ability to predict times of greater galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes is important for reducing the hazards caused by these particles to satellite communications, aviation, or astronauts. The 11-year solar-cycle variation in cosmic rays is highly correlated with the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field. Differences in GCR flux during alternate solar cycles yield a 22-year cycle, known as the Hale Cycle, which is thought to be due to different particle drift patterns when the northern solar pole has predominantly positive (denoted as qA>0 cycle) or negative (qA<0) polarities. This results in the onset of the peak cosmic-ray flux at Earth occurring earlier during qA>0 cycles than for qA<0 cycles, which in turn causes the peak to be more dome-shaped for qA>0 and more sharply peaked for qA<0. In this study, we demonstrate that properties of the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field are different during the declining phase of the qA<0 and qA>0 solar cycles, when the difference in GCR flux is most apparent. This suggests that particle drifts may not be the sole mechanism responsible for the Hale Cycle in GCR flux at Earth. However, we also demonstrate that these polarity-dependent heliospheric differences are evident during the space-age but are much less clear in earlier data: using geomagnetic reconstructions, we show that for the period of 1905 - 1965, alternate polarities do not give as significant a difference during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Thus we suggest that the 22-year cycle in cosmic-ray flux is at least partly the result of direct modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field and that this effect may be primarily limited to the grand solar maximum of the space-age.

Good machine performance in Turing’s imitation game

In this paper we consider transcripts which originated from a practical series of Turing’s Imitation Game which was held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. In some cases the tests involved a 3-participant simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities whereas others were the result of a direct 2-participant interaction. Each of the transcripts considered here resulted in a human interrogator being fooled, by a machine, into concluding that they had been conversing with a human. Particular features of the conversation are highlighted, successful ploys on the part of each machine discussed and likely reasons for the interrogator being fooled are considered. Subsequent feedback from the interrogators involved is also included

Towards radiocarbon calibration beyond 28ka using speleothems from the Bahamas

We present a new speleothem record of atmospheric Δ14C between 28 and 44 ka that offers considerable promise for resolving some of the uncertainty associated with existing radiocarbon calibration curves for this time period. The record is based on a comprehensive suite of AMS 14C ages, using new low-blank protocols, and U–Th ages using high precision MC-ICPMS procedures. Atmospheric Δ14C was calculated by correcting 14C ages with a constant dead carbon fraction (DCF) of 22.7 ± 5.9%, based on a comparison of stalagmite 14C ages with the IntCal04 (Reimer et al., 2004) calibration curve between 15 and 11 ka. The new Δ14C speleothem record shows similar structure and amplitude to that derived from Cariaco Basin foraminifera (Hughen et al., 2004, 2006), and the match is further improved if the latter is tied to the most recent Greenland ice core chronology (Svensson et al., 2008). These data are however in conflict with a previously published 14C data set for a stalagmite record from the Bahamas — GB-89-24-1 (Beck et al., 2001), which likely suffered from 14C analytical blank subtraction issues in the older part of the record. The new Bahamas speleothem ∆14C data do not show the extreme shifts between 44 and 40 ka reported in the previous study (Beck et al., 2001). Causes for the observed structure in derived atmospheric Δ14C variation based on the new speleothem data are investigated with a suite of simulations using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Data-model comparison indicates that major fluctuations in atmospheric ∆14C during marine isotope stage 3 is primarily a function of changes in geomagnetic field intensity, although ocean–atmosphere system reorganisation also played a supporting role.

Evidence from Meteosat imagery of the interaction of sting jets with the boundary layer

Meteosat infra-red imagery for the Great Storm of October 1987 is analysed to show a series of very shallow arc-shaped and smaller chevron-shaped cloud features that were associated with damaging surface winds in the dry-slot region of this extra-tropical cyclone. Hypotheses are presented that attribute these low-level cloud features to boundary-layer convergence lines ahead of wind maxima associated with the downward transport of high momentum from overrunning, so-called sting-jet, flows originating in the storm's main cloud head. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.