Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by non-stationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi-two-year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for non-stationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this non-stationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to non-stationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the mid-latitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and re-analysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. I: Mathematical basis

It is shown that Bretherton's view of baroclinic instability as the interaction of two counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be extended to a general zonal flow and to a general dynamical system based on material conservation of potential vorticity (PV). The two CRWs have zero tilt with both altitude and latitude and are constructed from a pair of growing and decaying normal modes. One CRW has generally large amplitude in regions of positive meridional PV gradient and propagates westwards relative to the flow in such regions. Conversely, the other CRW has large amplitude in regions of negative PV gradient and propagates eastward relative to the zonal flow there. Two methods of construction are described. In the first, more heuristic, method a ‘home-base’ is chosen for each CRW and the other CRW is defined to have zero PV there. Consideration of the PV equation at the two home-bases gives ‘CRW equations’ quantifying the evolution of the amplitudes and phases of both CRWs. They involve only three coefficients describing the mutual interaction of the waves and their self-propagation speeds. These coefficients relate to PV anomalies formed by meridional fluid displacements and the wind induced by these anomalies at the home-bases. In the second method, the CRWs are defined by orthogonality constraints with respect to wave activity and energy growth, avoiding the subjective choice of home-bases. Using these constraints, the same form of CRW equations are obtained from global integrals of the PV equation, but the three coefficients are global integrals that are not so readily described by ‘PV-thinking’ arguments. Each CRW could not continue to exist alone, but together they can describe the time development of any flow whose initial conditions can be described by the pair of growing and decaying normal modes, including the possibility of a super-modal growth rate for a short period. A phase-locking configuration (and normal-mode growth) is possible only if the PV gradient takes opposite signs and the mean zonal wind and the PV gradient are positively correlated in the two distinct regions where the wave activity of each CRW is concentrated. These are easily interpreted local versions of the integral conditions for instability given by Charney and Stern and by Fjørtoft.

Occurrence of Kelvin-Helmholtz Billows in Sea-breeze Circulations

Centred at the interface between the sea-breeze and the return flow aloft, Kelvin-Helmholtz billows (KHB) are an important feature of the turbulent structure of some sea-breeze circulations (SBCs). In other SBCs, there are no prominent KHBs observed. Factors governing the appearance of billows are determined from a database of 139 sea breezes, constructed from two years of summertime surface observations at a site on the south coast of England. Post-frontal oscillations occur in the surface data for some SBCs and are interpreted as indicating possible KHBs aloft. The SBCs are formed under a wide range of synoptic conditions, enabling various measures of possible billow occurrence to be related to properties of the large-scale, ambient flow. Consistent with laboratory experiments of density currents, KHBs are suppressed for propagation into a head wind and enhanced with a tail wind. They are also found to be enhanced for stronger ambient wind speeds, while large-scale coast-parallel flow is effective in suppressing the billows.

Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?

Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation. Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium

The validity of convective parametrization breaks down at the resolution of mesoscale models, and the success of parametrized versus explicit treatments of convection is likely to depend on the large-scale environment. In this paper we examine the hypothesis that a key feature determining the sensitivity to the environment is whether the forcing of convection is sufficiently homogeneous and slowly varying that the convection can be considered to be in equilibrium. Two case studies of mesoscale convective systems over the UK, one where equilibrium conditions are expected and one where equilibrium is unlikely, are simulated using a mesoscale forecasting model. The time evolution of area-average convective available potential energy and the time evolution and magnitude of the timescale of convective adjustment are consistent with the hypothesis of equilibrium for case 1 and non-equilibrium for case 2. For each case, three experiments are performed with different partitionings between parametrized and explicit convection: fully parametrized convection, fully explicit convection and a simulation with significant amounts of both. In the equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are insensitive to the treatment of convection. However, the detailed structure of the precipitation field changes; the simulation with parametrized convection behaves well and produces a smooth field that follows the forcing region, and the simulation with explicit convection has a small number of localized intense regions of precipitation that track with the mid-levelflow. For the non-equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are sensitive to the treatment of convection. The simulation with explicit convection behaves similarly to the equilibrium case with a few localized precipitation regions. In contrast, the cumulus parametrization fails dramatically and develops intense propagating bows of precipitation that were not observed. The simulations with both parametrized and explicit convection follow the pattern seen in the other experiments, with a transition over the duration of the run from parametrized to explicit precipitation. The impact of convection on the large-scaleflow, as measured by upper-level wind and potential-vorticity perturbations, is very sensitive to the partitioning of convection for both cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright.

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.

The puckering coordinate in oxetane

The recently determined apucker(xz) = ∂Ixz/∂Qpucker constants for five isotopic species of oxetane have been interpreted quantitatively by allowing the ring-puckering normal coordinate to contain a small amount of methylene rocking and twisting motion. The observed data are most closely reproduced by assuming a methylene rock angle of about 3° and a twist angle for the -methylene groups of about 1° at the equilibrium conformation of the ring.

Modelling the formation of necrotic regions in avascular tumours

The mechanisms underlying the formation of necrotic regions within avascular tumours are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the relative roles of nutrient deprivation and of cell death, from both the proliferating phase of the cell cycle via apoptosis and from the quiescent phase via necrosis, in changing the structure within multicellular tumour spheroids and particularly the accumulation of dead cell material in the centre. A mathematical model is presented and studied that accounts for nutrient diffusion, changes in cell cycling rates, the two different routes to cell death as well as active motion of cells and passive motion of the dead cell material. In studying the accumulation of dead cell matter we do not distinguish between the route by which each was formed. The resulting mathematical model is examined for a number of scenarios. Results show that in many cases the size of the necrotic core is closely correlated with low levels in nutrient concentration. However, in certain cases, particularly where the rate of necrosis is large, the resulting necrotic core can lead to regions of non-negligible nutrient concentration-dependent upon the mode of cell death.

Evaluation of probabilistic occupancy map people detection for surveillance systems

In this paper, we evaluate the Probabilistic Occupancy Map (POM) pedestrian detection algorithm on the PETS 2009 benchmark dataset. POM is a multi-camera generative detection method, which estimates ground plane occupancy from multiple background subtraction views. Occupancy probabilities are iteratively estimated by fitting a synthetic model of the background subtraction to the binary foreground motion. Furthermore, we test the integration of this algorithm into a larger framework designed for understanding human activities in real environments. We demonstrate accurate detection and localization on the PETS dataset, despite suboptimal calibration and foreground motion segmentation input.

The climatology of the middle atmosphere in a vertically extended version of the Met Office's climate model. Part I: mean state

The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

The 11-yr solar cycle in ERA-40 data: an update to 2008

Multiple linear regression is used to diagnose the signal of the 11-yr solar cycle in zonal-mean zonal wind and temperature in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset. The results of previous studies are extended to 2008 using data from ECMWF operational analyses. This analysis confirms that the solar signal found in previous studies is distinct from that of volcanic aerosol forcing resulting from the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, but it highlights the potential for confusion of the solar signal and lower-stratospheric temperature trends. A correction to an error that is present in previous results of Crooks and Gray, stemming from the use of a single daily analysis field rather than monthly averaged data, is also presented.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase

Asymptotic gravity wave drag expressions for non-hydrostatic rotating flow over a ridge

Asymptotic expressions are derived for the mountain wave drag in flow with constant wind and static stability over a ridge when both rotation and non-hydrostatic effects are important. These expressions, which are much more manageable than the corresponding exact drag expressions (when these do exist) are found to provide accurate approximations to the drag, even when non-hydrostatic and rotation effects are strong, despite having been developed for cases where these effects are weak. The derived expressions are compared with approximations to the drag found previously, and their asymptotic behaviour in various limits is studied.