Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

The first five years of the EU Impact Assessment system: a risk economics perspective on gaps between rationale and practice

In 2003 the European Commission started using Impact Assessment (IA) as the main empirical basis for its major policy proposals. The aim was to systematically assess ex ante the economic, social and environmental impacts of EU policy proposals. In parallel, research proliferated in search for theoretical grounds for IAs and in an attempt to evaluate empirically the performance of the first sets of IAs produced by the European Commission. This paper combines conceptual and evaluative studies carried out in the first five years of EU IAs. It concludes that the great discrepancy between rationale and practice calls for a different theoretical focus and a higher emphasis on evaluating empirically crucial risk economics aspects of IAs, such as the value of statistical life, price of carbon, the integration of macroeconomic modelling and scenario analysis.

Performance analysis of data transmissions in MPLS and non-MPLS networks

Basic Network transactions specifies that datagram from source to destination is routed through numerous routers and paths depending on the available free and uncongested paths which results in the transmission route being too long, thus incurring greater delay, jitter, congestion and reduced throughput. One of the major problems of packet switched networks is the cell delay variation or jitter. This cell delay variation is due to the queuing delay depending on the applied loading conditions. The effect of delay, jitter accumulation due to the number of nodes along transmission routes and dropped packets adds further complexity to multimedia traffic because there is no guarantee that each traffic stream will be delivered according to its own jitter constraints therefore there is the need to analyze the effects of jitter. IP routers enable a single path for the transmission of all packets. On the other hand, Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) allows separation of packet forwarding and routing characteristics to enable packets to use the appropriate routes and also optimize and control the behavior of transmission paths. Thus correcting some of the shortfalls associated with IP routing. Therefore MPLS has been utilized in the analysis for effective transmission through the various networks. This paper analyzes the effect of delay, congestion, interference, jitter and packet loss in the transmission of signals from source to destination. In effect the impact of link failures, repair paths in the various physical topologies namely bus, star, mesh and hybrid topologies are all analyzed based on standard network conditions.

Results of a DSP based adaptive cancellation filter system for the chirp, pulsar and localiser sirens

Sirens’ used by police, fire and paramedic vehicles generate noise that propagates inside the vehicle cab that subsequently corrupts intelligibility of voice communications from the emergency vehicle to the control room. It is even common for the siren to be turned off to enable the control room to hear what is being said. Both fixed filter and adaptive filter systems have previously been developed to help cancel the transmission of the siren noise over the radio. Previous cancellation systems have only concentrated on the traditional 2-tone, wail and yelp sirens. This paper discusses an improvement to a previous adaptive filter system and presents the cancellation results to three new types of sirens; being chirp pulsar and localiser. A siren noise filter system has the capability to improve the response time for an emergency vehicle and thus help save lives. To date, this system has been tested using live recordings taken from a nonemergency situation with good results.

A study of COFDM in a terrestrial multipath environment

Coded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (COFDM) has existed for many years but it was not until 1997 when the European Telecommunications Standards Institute proposed its use for the transmission of digital television through a terrestrial channel. Up to date, an assumption has been made concerning the resilience of COFDM in a multipath environment. This paper discusses this assumption, give results of a DVB-T compliant simulation and discuss the validity of this assumption based on the obtained results.

Investigation on Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) pollen transmission through cross-pollination

DNA- and RNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems were used with Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) primers designed from conserved regions of the six published genomic sequences of CSSV to investigate whether the virus is transmissible from infected trees through cross-pollination to seeds and seedlings. Pollen was harvested from CSSV infected cocoa trees and used to cross-pollinate flowers of healthy cocoa trees (recipient parents) to generate enough cocoa seeds for the PCR screening. Adequate precautions were taken to avoid cross-contamination during duplicated DNA extractions and only PCR results accompanied by effective positive and negative controls were scored. Results from the PCR analyses showed that samples of cocoa pod husk, mesocarp and seed tissues (testa, cotyledon and embryo) from the cross-pollinations were PCR negative for CSSV DNA. Sequential DNA samples from new leaves of seedlings resulting from the cross-pollinated trees were consistently PCR negative for presence of portions of CSSV DNA for over 36 months after germination. A reverse transcription-PCR analysis performed on the seedlings showed negative results, indicating absence of functional CSSV RNA transcripts in the seedlings. None of the seedlings exhibited symptoms characteristic of the CSSV disease, and all infectivity tests on the seedlings were also negative. Following these results, the study concluded that although CSSV DNA was detected in pollen from CSSV infected trees, there was no evidence of pollen transmission of the virus through cross-pollination from infected cocoa parents to healthy cocoa trees. Keywords:badnavirus;CSSV;PCR;pollen;seed transmission;Theobroma cacao

Characterisation of the intracellular-glutamate decarboxylase system (GAD): analysis of its function, transcription and role in the acid resistance of various strains of Listeria monocytogenes

The glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) system is important for the acid resistance of Listeria monocytogenes. We previously showed that under acidic conditions, glutamate (Glt)/γ-aminobutyrate (GABA) antiport is impaired in minimal media but not in rich ones, like brain heart infusion. Here we demonstrate that this behavior is more complex and it is subject to strain and medium variation. Despite the impaired Glt/GABA antiport, cells accumulate intracellular GABA (GABA(i)) as a standard response against acid in any medium, and this occurs in all strains tested. Since these systems can occur independently of one another, we refer to them as the extracellular (GAD(e)) and intracellular (GAD(i)) systems. We show here that GAD(i) contributes to acid resistance since in a ΔgadD1D2 mutant, reduced GABA(i) accumulation coincided with a 3.2-log-unit reduction in survival at pH 3.0 compared to that of wild-type strain LO28. Among 20 different strains, the GAD(i) system was found to remove 23.11% ± 18.87% of the protons removed by the overall GAD system. Furthermore, the GAD(i) system is activated at milder pH values (4.5 to 5.0) than the GAD(e) system (pH 4.0 to 4.5), suggesting that GAD(i) is the more responsive of the two and the first line of defense against acid. Through functional genomics, we found a major role for GadD2 in the function of GAD(i), while that of GadD1 was minor. Furthermore, the transcription of the gad genes in three common reference strains (10403S, LO28, and EGD-e) during an acid challenge correlated well with their relative acid sensitivity. No transcriptional upregulation of the gadT2D2 operon, which is the most important component of the GAD system, was observed, while gadD3 transcription was the highest among all gad genes in all strains. In this study, we present a revised model for the function of the GAD system and highlight the important role of GAD(i) in the acid resistance of L. monocytogenes.

The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening

Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as ‘dimming’ while positive trends have become known as ‘brightening’. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.

Specific detection and localization of microsporidian parasites in invertebrate hosts using in situ hybridization

We designed FISH-probes for two distinct microsporidian clades and demonstrated their application in detecting respectively Nosema/Vairimorpha and Dictyoceola species. We applied them to study the vertical transmission of two microsporidia infecting the amphipod Gammarus duebeni

Restriction fragment length polymorphism of polymerase chain reaction products applied to the differentiation of poultry campylobacters for epidemiological investigations

A technique for subtyping Camplobacter jejuni isolates has been developed by using the restriction fragment length polymorphism (Rnp) of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of the fluA and flaB genes. The technique was validated by using strains representing 28 serotypes of C jejuni and it may also be applied to C coli. From these strains 12 distinct RFLP profiles were observed but there was no direct relationship between the RFLP profile and the serotype. One hundred and thirty-five campylobacter isolates from 15 geographically distinct broiler flocks were investigated. All the isolates could be subtyped by using the RFLP method. Isolates from most of the flocks had a single RFLP profile despite data indicating that several serotypes were involved. Although it is possible that further restriction analysis may have demonstrated profile variations in these strains, it is more likely that antigenic variation can occur within genotypically related campylobacters. As a result, serotyping may give conflicting information for veterinary epidemiological purposes. This RFLP typing scheme appears to provide a suitable tool for the investigation of the sources and routes of transmission of campylobacters in chickens.

Investigation on Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) pollen transmission through cross-pollination

DNA- and RNA-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems were used with Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) primers designed from conserved regions of the six published genomic sequences of CSSV to investigate whether the virus is transmissible from infected trees through cross-pollination to seeds and seedlings. Pollen was harvested from CSSV infected cocoa trees and used to cross-pollinate flowers of healthy cocoa trees (recipient parents) to generate enough cocoa seeds for the PCR screening. Adequate precautions were taken to avoid cross-contamination during duplicated DNA extractions and only PCR results accompanied by effective positive and negative controls were scored. Results from the PCR analyses showed that samples of cocoa pod husk, mesocarp and seed tissues (testa, cotyledon and embryo) from the cross-pollinations were PCR negative for CSSV DNA. Sequential DNA samples from new leaves of seedlings resulting from the cross-pollinated trees were consistently PCR negative for presence of portions of CSSV DNA for over 36 months after germination. A reverse transcription-PCR analysis performed on the seedlings showed negative results, indicating absence of functional CSSV RNA transcripts in the seedlings. None of the seedlings exhibited symptoms characteristic of the CSSV disease, and all infectivity tests on the seedlings were also negative. Following these results, the study concluded that although CSSV DNA was detected in pollen from CSSV infected trees, there was no evidence of pollen transmission of the virus through cross-pollination from infected cocoa parents to healthy cocoa trees.

‘The European Dream of Franz Josef Strauss’

Franz Josef Strauss, West German Minister of Atomic Energy and Minister of Defence, pursued a project by which European political integration was to be paralleled by co-operation in the field of nuclear energy and indeed nuclear weapons. It has often been alleged that this covered nationalist German ambitions to turn Germany into a nuclear power in its own rights. Seen in the context of his European integration programme - which foundered on the devotion of French President de Gaulle to French national sovereignty - Strauss' overall policy suggests that he did indeed aim not to obtain nuclear weapons for Germany, but for an integrated European superstate.

Distribution of β-amylase I haplotypes among European cultivated barleys

The barley β-amylase I (Bmy1) locus encodes a starch breakdown enzyme whose kinetic properties and thermostability are critical during malt production. Studies of allelic variation at the Bmy1 locus have shown that the encoded enzyme can be commonly found in at least three distinct thermostability classes and demonstrated the nucleotide sequence variations responsible for such phenotypic differences. In order to explore the extent of sequence diversity at the Bmy1 locus in cultivated European barley, 464 varieties representing a cross-section of popular varieties grown in western Europe over the past 60 years, were genotyped for three single nucleotide polymorphisms chosen to tag the four common alleles found in the collection. One of these haplotypes, which has not been explicitly recognised in the literature as a distinct allele, was found in 95% of winter varieties in the sample. When release dates of the varieties were considered, the lowest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2L) appeared to decrease in abundance over time, while the highest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2H) was the rarest allele at 5.4% of the sample and was virtually confined to two-row spring varieties. Pedigree analysis was used to track transmission of particular alleles over time and highlighted issues of genetic stratification of the sample.

Genetic heterogeneity in erythropoietic protoporphyria: a study of the enzymatic defect in nine affected families

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is associated with a deficiency of protohaem ferrolyase. We have used a novel assay for this enzyme based on its ability to utilize zinc as a substrate to investigate the inheritance of EPP in nine affected families. Zinc chelatase activity was markedly reduced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 14 EPP patients (mean, 3.3 nmol Zn protohaem/h/mg protein; range, 0.3-8.0) when compared with 41 controls (16.8 +/- 3.6) p less than 0.01. In three families with parent-to-child transmission of disease, the asymptomatic parent had an enzymatic activity within the normal range. In three pedigrees where the parents were asymptomatic, enzymatic activities were below the 95% confidence limits in both. Zinc chelatase activity was below the mean control value in 17 of the 18 parents in nine affected pedigrees, and six of seven asymptomatic offspring of patients with protoporphyria. The findings suggest that EPP is not transmitted as a simple dominant trait and that inheritance of more than one gene may be required for disease expression.

Evaluation frameworks for information systems integration: from a semiotic lens

Information systems integration aims at the interaction, information exchange and interoperability between information systems, devices and units. Research efforts have contributed in evaluation of information systems integration on the development of evaluation frameworks. To improve the usability and measurability of evaluation, a review of existing evaluation frameworks including their evolution and classifications of different interoperability levels is conducted. The theory of organisational semiotics is used for a comparative analysis of the frameworks and future work.