Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

"Racism in a Melting Pot...?" Trinidadian mid-life transnational migrants' views on race and colour-class on return to their homes of descent

This paper deals with second-generation, one-and-a-half generation and ‘‘prolonged sojourner” Trinidadian transnational migrants, who have decided to ‘return’ to the birthplace of their parents. Based on 40 in-depth interviews, the paper considers both the positive and critical things that these youthful transnational migrants report about returning to, and living in, this multi-ethnic plural society and the salience of racial and colour-class stratification as part of their return migration experiences. Our qualitative analysis is based on the narratives provided by these youthful returnees, as relayed ‘‘in their own words”, presenting critical reflections on racism, racial identities and experiences as transnational Trinidadians. It is clear that it is contexts such as contemporary working environments, family and community that act as the reference points for the adaptation ‘‘back home” of this strongly middle-class cohort. We accordingly encounter a diverse, sometimes contesting set of racial issues that emerge as salient concerns for these returnees. The consensus is that matters racial remain as formidable legacies in the hierarchical stratification of Trinidadian society for a sizeable number. Many of our respondents reported the positive aspects of racial affirmation on return. But for another sub-set, the fact that multi-ethnic and multi-cultural mixing are proudly embraced in Trinidad meant that it was felt that return experiences were not overly hindered, or blighted by obstacles of race and colour-class. For these returnees, Trinidad and Tobago is seen as representing a 21st century ‘‘Melting Pot”. But for others the continued existence of racial divisions within society – between ethnic groups and among those of different skin shades – was lamented. In the views of these respondents, too much racial power is still ascribed to ‘near-whiteness’. But for the most part, the returnees felt that where race played a part in their new lives, this generally served to advantage them. However, although the situation in Trinidad appears to have been moderated by assumptions that it remains a racial ‘Melting Pot’, the analysis strongly suggests that the colour-class system of stratification is still playing an essential role, along with racial stereotyping in society at large.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Sequential designs for phase III clinical trials incorporating treatment selection

Most statistical methodology for phase III clinical trials focuses on the comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. An increasing desire to reduce the time before regulatory approval of a new drug is sought has led to development of two-stage or sequential designs for trials that combine the definitive analysis associated with phase III with the treatment selection element of a phase II study. In this paper we consider a trial in which the most promising of a number of experimental treatments is selected at the first interim analysis. This considerably reduces the computational load associated with the construction of stopping boundaries compared to the approach proposed by Follman, Proschan and Geller (Biometrics 1994; 50: 325-336). The computational requirement does not exceed that for the sequential comparison of a single experimental treatment with a control. Existing methods are extended in two ways. First, the use of the efficient score as a test statistic makes the analysis of binary, normal or failure-time data, as well as adjustment for covariates or stratification straightforward. Second, the question of trial power is also considered, enabling the determination of sample size required to give specified power. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased levels of microparticles originating from endothelial cells, platelets and erythrocytes in subjects with metabolic syndrome: relationship with oxidative stress

Background and aims The Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Circulating microparticles (MP) are involved in the pathogenesis of atherothrombotic disorders and are raised in individual with CVD. We measured their level and cellular origin in subjects with MetS and analyzed their associations with 1/anthropometric and biological parameters of MetS, 2/inflammation and oxidative stress markers. Methods and results Eighty-eight subjects with the MetS according to the NCEP-ATPIII definition were enrolled in a bicentric study and compared to 27 healthy controls. AnnexinV-positive MP (TMP), MP derived from platelets (PMP), erythrocytes (ErMP), endothelial cells (EMP), leukocytes (LMP) and granulocytes (PNMP) were determined by flow cytometry. MetS subjects had significantly higher counts/μl of TMP (730.6 ± 49.7 vs 352.8 ± 35.6), PMP (416.0 ± 43.8 vs 250.5 ± 23.5), ErMP (243.8 ± 22.1 vs 73.6 ± 19.6) and EMP (7.8 ± 0.8 vs 4.0 ± 1.0) compared with controls. LMP and PNMP were not statistically different between groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that each criterion for the MetS influenced the number of TMP. Waist girth was a significant determinant of PMP and EMP level and blood pressure was correlated with EMP level. Glycemia positively correlated with PMP level whereas dyslipidemia influenced EMP and ErMP levels. Interestingly, the oxidative stress markers, plasma glutathione peroxydase and urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2 α, independently influenced TMP and PMP levels whereas inflammatory markers did not, irrespective of MP type. Conclusion Increased levels of TMP, PMP, ErMP and EMP are associated with individual metabolic abnormalities of MetS and oxidative stress. Whether MP assessment may represent a marker for risk stratification or a target for pharmacological intervention deserves further investigation.

Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

Controls of carbon dioxide concentrations and fluxes above central London

Eddy-covariance measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes were taken semi-continuously between October 2006 and May 2008 at 190 m height in central London (UK) to quantify emissions and study their controls. Inner London, with a population of 8.2 million (~5000 inhabitants per km2) is heavily built up with 8% vegetation cover within the central boroughs. CO2 emissions were found to be mainly controlled by fossil fuel combustion (e.g. traffic, commercial and domestic heating). The measurement period allowed investigation of both diurnal patterns and seasonal trends. Diurnal averages of CO2 fluxes were found to be highly correlated to traffic. However changes in heating-related natural gas consumption and, to a lesser extent, photosynthetic activity that controlled the seasonal variability. Despite measurements being taken at ca. 22 times the mean building height, coupling with street level was adequate, especially during daytime. Night-time saw a higher occurrence of stable or neutral stratification, especially in autumn and winter, which resulted in data loss in post-processing. No significant difference was found between the annual estimate of net exchange of CO2 for the expected measurement footprint and the values derived from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI), with daytime fluxes differing by only 3%. This agreement with NAEI data also supported the use of the simple flux footprint model which was applied to the London site; this also suggests that individual roughness elements did not significantly affect the measurements due to the large ratio of measurement height to mean building height.

Influence of thermal effects on street canyon circulations

A numerical study has been carried out to investigate the influence of large-scale thermal effects and strong local-scale temperature gradients near the ground on the circulation inside a street canyon. The results show that the dynamical forcing dominates the circulation inside a street canyon. But this forcing is influenced by the large-scale thermal stability. Thus, atmospheric stability indirectly controls the street canyon circulation. Small temperature gradients inside the street-canyon are neutralised by the external dynamical forcing. Strong temperature gradients inside the street-canyon show an impact on the street canyon circulation. While stable stratification reduces the circulation for the building configuration investigated, convective stratification seems to intensify it.

Plastic compression of a collagen gel forms a much improved scaffold for ocular surface tissue engineering over conventional collagen gels

We compare the use of plastically compressed collagen gels to conventional collagen gels as scaffolds onto which corneal limbal epithelial cells (LECs) are seeded to construct an artificial corneal epithelium. LECs were isolated from bovine corneas (limbus) and seeded onto either conventional uncompressed or novel compressed collagen gels and grown in culture. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) results showed that fibers within the uncompressed gel were loose and irregularly ordered, whereas the fibers within the compressed gel were densely packed and more evenly arranged. Quantitative analysis of LECs expansion across the surface of the two gels showed similar growth rates (p > 0.05). Under SEM, the LECs, expanded on uncompressed gels, showed a rough and heterogeneous morphology, whereas on the compressed gel, the cells displayed a smooth and homogeneous morphology. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) results showed the compressed scaffold to contain collagen fibers of regular diameter and similar orientation resembling collagen fibers within the normal cornea. TEM and light microscopy also showed that cell–cell and cell–matrix attachment, stratification, and cell density were superior in LECs expanded upon compressed collagen gels. This study demonstrated that the compressed collagen gel was an excellent biomaterial scaffold highly suited to the construction of an artificial corneal epithelium and a significant improvement upon conventional collagen gels.

Particle image velocimetry measurements of turbulent flow within outdoor and indoor urban scale models and flushing motions in urban canopy layers

We investigate the spatial characteristics of urban-like canopy flow by applying particle image velocimetry (PIV) to atmospheric turbulence. The study site was a Comprehensive Outdoor Scale MOdel (COSMO) experiment for urban climate in Japan. The PIV system captured the two-dimensional flow field within the canopy layer continuously for an hour with a sampling frequency of 30 Hz, thereby providing reliable outdoor turbulence statistics. PIV measurements in a wind-tunnel facility using similar roughness geometry, but with a lower sampling frequency of 4 Hz, were also done for comparison. The turbulent momentum flux from COSMO, and the wind tunnel showed similar values and distributions when scaled using friction velocity. Some different characteristics between outdoor and indoor flow fields were mainly caused by the larger fluctuations in wind direction for the atmospheric turbulence. The focus of the analysis is on a variety of instantaneous turbulent flow structures. One remarkable flow structure is termed 'flushing', that is, a large-scale upward motion prevailing across the whole vertical cross-section of a building gap. This is observed intermittently, whereby tracer particles are flushed vertically out from the canopy layer. Flushing phenomena are also observed in the wind tunnel where there is neither thermal stratification nor outer-layer turbulence. It is suggested that flushing phenomena are correlated with the passing of large-scale low-momentum regions above the canopy.

The wind in the willows: flows in forest canopies in complex terrain

Forest canopies are important components of the terrestrial carbon budget, which has motivated a worldwide effort, FLUXNET, to measure CO2 exchange between forests and the atmosphere. These measurements are difficult to interpret and to scale up to estimate exchange across a landscape. Here we review the effects of complex terrain on the mean flow, turbulence, and scalar exchange in canopy flows, as exemplified by adjustment to forest edges and hills, including the effects of stable stratification. We focus on the fundamental fluid mechanics, in which developments in theory, measurements, and modeling, particularly through large-eddy simulation, are identifying important processes and providing scaling arguments. These developments set the stage for the development of predictive models that can be used in combination with measurements to estimate exchange at the landscape scale.