The causes and effects of depreciation in office buildings: a ten year update

This paper publishes the results of the 1996 study, which repeats a cross-section analysis of around 125 City of London office buildings, and examines the longitudinal data contributed by a sample of 56 unrefurbished properties common to the 1986 and 1996 City of London datasets. An estimate of the average rate of rental and capital value depreciation is made; the effect of age is shown not to be straight-line; and the causes if depreciation are measured. The results are compared with the 1986 City of London findings.

Evolving social networks, attitudes and beliefs and counter terrorism

'The Princeton Companion to Applied Mathematics' is an introduction to applied mathematics for students, teachers, and professionals. This article is for the "Application Areas" part of the book, which comprises articles on connections between applied mathematics and other disciplines.

Non-toxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 strain NCTC12900 causes attaching-effacing lesions and eae-dependent persistence in weaned sheep

Ruminants are regarded as a primary reservoir for Escherichia coli O157:H7, an important human pathogen. Intimin, encoded by the Locus of Enterocyte Effacement by E. coli O157:H7 organisms, has been cited as one bacterial mechanism of colonisation of the gastrointestinal tract. To confirm this and to test whether a non-toxigenic E. coli O157:H7 strain would colonise and persist in a sheep model, E. coli O157:H7 strain NCTC12900, that lacks Shiga toxin (stx) genes, was evaluated for use in a sheep model of persistence. Following oral inoculation of six-week-old sheep, persistent excretion of NCTC12900 was observed for up to 48 days. E. coli O157-associated attaching-effacing (AE) lesions were detected in the caecum and rectum of one six-week-old lamb, one day after inoculation. This is the first recorded observation of AE lesions in orally inoculated weaned sheep. Also, mean faecal excretion scores of NCTC12900 and an isogenic intimin (eae)-deficient mutant were determined from twenty-four six-week-old orally inoculated sheep. The eae mutant was cleared within 20 days and had lower mean excretion scores at all time points after day one post inoculation compared with the parental strain that was still being excreted at 48 days. Tissues were collected post mortem from animals selected at random from the study groups over the time course of the experiment. The eae mutant was detected in only 1/43 samples but the parental strain was recovered from 64/140 samples primarily from the large bowel although rumen, duodenum, jejunum, and ileum were culture positive especially from animals that were still excreting at and beyond 27 days after inoculation.

4-Hydroxynonenal, an endogenous aldehyde, causes pain and neurogenic inflammation through activation of the irritant receptor TRPA1

TRPA1 is an excitatory ion channel expressed by a subpopulation of primary afferent somatosensory neurons that contain substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide. Environmental irritants such as mustard oil, allicin, and acrolein activate TRPA1, causing acute pain, neuropeptide release, and neurogenic inflammation. Genetic studies indicate that TRPA1 is also activated downstream of one or more proalgesic agents that stimulate phospholipase C signaling pathways, thereby implicating this channel in peripheral mechanisms controlling pain hypersensitivity. However, it is not known whether tissue injury also produces endogenous proalgesic factors that activate TRPA1 directly to augment inflammatory pain. Here, we report that recombinant or native TRPA1 channels are activated by 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (HNE), an endogenous alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehyde that is produced when reactive oxygen species peroxidate membrane phospholipids in response to tissue injury, inflammation, and oxidative stress. HNE provokes release of substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide from central (spinal cord) and peripheral (esophagus) nerve endings, resulting in neurogenic plasma protein extravasation in peripheral tissues. Moreover, injection of HNE into the rodent hind paw elicits pain-related behaviors that are inhibited by TRPA1 antagonists and absent in animals lacking functional TRPA1 channels. These findings demonstrate that HNE activates TRPA1 on nociceptive neurons to promote acute pain, neuropeptide release, and neurogenic inflammation. Our results also provide a mechanism-based rationale for developing novel analgesic or anti-inflammatory agents that target HNE production or TRPA1 activation.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change

In the first part of this paper (Ulbrich et al. 2003), we gave a description of the August 2002 rainfall events and the resultant floods, in particular of the flood wave of the River Elbe. The extreme precipitation sums observed in the first half of the month were primarily associated with two rainfall episodes. The first episode occurred on 6/7 August 2002. The main rainfall area was situated over Lower Austria, the south-western part of the Czech Republic and south-eastern Germany. A severe flash flood was produced in the Lower Austrian Waldviertel (`forest quarter’ ). The second episode on 11± 13 August 2002 most severely affected the Erz Mountains and western parts of the Czech Republic. During this second episode 312mm of rain was recorded between 0600GMT on 12 August and 0600GMT on 13 August at the Zinnwald weather station in the ErzMountains, which is a new 24-hour record for Germany. The flash floods resulting from this rainfall episode and the subsequent Elbe flood produced the most expensive weatherrelated catastrophe in Europe in recent decades. In this part of the paper we discuss the meteorological conditions and physical mechanisms leading to the two main events. Similarities to the conditions that led to the recent summer floods of the River Oder in 1997 and the River Vistula in 2001 will be shown. This will lead us to a consideration of trends in extreme rainfall over Europe which are found in numerical simulations of anthropogenic climate change.

The causes of prescribing errors in English general practices: a qualitative study

Aim: To examine the causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in English general practices and provide recommendations for how they may be overcome. Design: Qualitative interview and focus group study with purposive sampling and thematic analysis informed by Reason’s accident causation model. Participants: General practice staff participated in a combination of semi-structured interviews (n=34) and six focus groups (n=46). Setting: Fifteen general practices across three primary care trusts in England. Results: We identified seven categories of high-level error-producing conditions: the prescriber, the patient, the team, the task, the working environment, the computer system, and the primary-secondary care interface. Each of these was further broken down to reveal various error-producing conditions. The prescriber’s therapeutic training, drug knowledge and experience, knowledge of the patient, perception of risk, and their physical and emotional health, were all identified as possible causes. The patient’s characteristics and the complexity of the individual clinical case were also found to have contributed to prescribing errors. The importance of feeling comfortable within the practice team was highlighted, as well as the safety of general practitioners (GPs) in signing prescriptions generated by nurses when they had not seen the patient for themselves. The working environment with its high workload, time pressures, and interruptions, and computer related issues associated with mis-selecting drugs from electronic pick-lists and overriding alerts, were all highlighted as possible causes of prescribing errors and often interconnected. Conclusion: This study has highlighted the complex underlying causes of prescribing and monitoring errors in general practices, several of which are amenable to intervention.

RNA interference suppression of genes in glycosyl transferase families 43 and 47 in wheat starchy endosperm causes large decreases in arabinoxylan content

The cell walls of wheat (Triticum aestivum) starchy endosperm are dominated by arabinoxylan (AX), accounting for 65% to 70% of the polysaccharide content. Genes within two glycosyl transferase (GT) families, GT43 (IRREGULAR XYLEM9 [IRX9] and IRX14) and GT47 (IRX10), have previously been shown to be involved in the synthesis of the xylan backbone in Arabidopsis, and close homologs of these have been implicated in the synthesis of xylan in other species. Here, homologs of IRX10 TaGT47_2 and IRX9 TaGT43_2, which are highly expressed in wheat starchy endosperm cells, were suppressed by RNA interference (RNAi) constructs driven by a starchy endosperm-specific promoter. The total amount of AX was decreased by 40% to 50% and the degree of arabinosylation was increased by 25% to 30% in transgenic lines carrying either of the transgenes. The cell walls of starchy endosperm in sections of grain from TaGT43_2 and TaGT47_2 RNAi transgenics showed decreased immunolabeling for xylan and arabinoxylan epitopes and approximately 50% decreased cell wall thickness compared with controls. The proportion of AX that was water soluble was not significantly affected, but average AX polymer chain length was decreased in both TaGT43_2 and TaGT47_2 RNAi transgenics. However, the long AX chains seen in controls were absent in TaGT43_2 RNAi transgenics but still present in TaGT47_2 RNAi transgenics. The results support an emerging picture of IRX9-like and IRX10-like proteins acting as key components in the xylan synthesis machinery in both dicots and grasses. Since AX is the main component of dietary fiber in wheat foods, the TaGT43_2 and TaGT47_2 genes are of major importance to human nutrition.

Simulation of late-twenty-first-century changes in wintertime atmospheric circulation over Europe due to anthropogenic causes

Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic--European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

Care homes’ use of medicines study: prevalence, causes and potential harm of medication errors in care homes for older people

Introduction: Care home residents are at particular risk from medication errors, and our objective was to determine the prevalence and potential harm of prescribing, monitoring, dispensing and administration errors in UK care homes, and to identify their causes. Methods: A prospective study of a random sample of residents within a purposive sample of homes in three areas. Errors were identified by patient interview, note review, observation of practice and examination of dispensed items. Causes were understood by observation and from theoretically framed interviews with home staff, doctors and pharmacists. Potential harm from errors was assessed by expert judgement. Results: The 256 residents recruited in 55 homes were taking a mean of 8.0 medicines. One hundred and seventy-eight (69.5%) of residents had one or more errors. The mean number per resident was 1.9 errors. The mean potential harm from prescribing, monitoring, administration and dispensing errors was 2.6, 3.7, 2.1 and 2.0 (0 = no harm, 10 = death), respectively. Contributing factors from the 89 interviews included doctors who were not accessible, did not know the residents and lacked information in homes when prescribing; home staff’s high workload, lack of medicines training and drug round interruptions; lack of team work among home, practice and pharmacy; inefficient ordering systems; inaccurate medicine records and prevalence of verbal communication; and difficult to fill (and check) medication administration systems. Conclusions: That two thirds of residents were exposed to one or more medication errors is of concern. The will to improve exists, but there is a lack of overall responsibility. Action is required from all concerned.

Terrorism and cabinet duration

Terrorism can strengthen or weaken electoral support for ruling governments. We show in a simple model of coalition formation that, regardless of the direction of a public opinion shock, the impact of terrorism on cabinet duration is ambiguous. However, in an analysis of a data set including 2,400 cabinets in over 150 countries in the period 1970–2002, we find that terrorism, on average, shortens cabinet duration. This result is robust for a range of alternative terror measures and is present in both democratic as well as autocratic political regimes.

Does terrorism threaten human rights? Evidence from panel data

Using panel data for 111 countries over the period 1982–2002, we employ two indexes that cover a wide range of human rights to empirically analyze whether and to what extent terrorism affects human rights. According to our results,terrorism significantly, but not dramatically, diminishes governments’ respect for basic human rights such as the absence of extrajudicial killings, political imprisonment, and torture. The result is robust to how we measure terrorist attacks, to the method of estimation, and to the choice of countries in our sample. However, we find no effect of terrorism on empowerment rights.