Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Taking the shopping centre online: new models in e-commerce

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a brief re´sume´ of previous research which has analysed the impact of e-commerce on retail real estate in the UK, and to examine the important marketing role of the internet for shopping centre managers, and retail landlords. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the results from a wider study carried out in 2003, the paper uses case studies from two different shopping centres in the UK, and documents the innovative uses of both web-based marketing and online retailing by organisations that historically have not directly been involved in the retailing process. Findings – The paper highlights the importance of considering online sales within a multi-channel approach to retailing. The two types of emerging shopping centre model which are identified are characterised by their ultimate relationship with the physical shopping centre on whose web site they reside. These can be summarised as: the “centre-led” approach, and the “brand-led” or “marketing-led” approach. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a limited number of in-depth case studies and secondary data. Further research is needed to monitor the continuing impact of e-commerce on retail property and the marketing strategies of shopping centre managers and owners. Practical implications – Internet-based sales provide an important adjunct to conventional retail sales and an important source of potential risk for landlords and tenants in the real estate investment market. Regardless of whether retailers use the internet as a sales channel, as a product-sourcing tool, or merely to provide information to the consumer, the internet has become a keystone within the greater retail marketing mix. The findings have ramifications for understanding the way in which landlords are structuring their retail property to defray potential risks. Originality/value – The paper examines shopping centre online marketing models for the first time in detail, and will be of value to retail occupiers, owners and other stakeholders of shopping centres.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

A longitudinal investigation of maternal influences on the development of child hostile attributions and aggression

Aggression in children is associated with an enhanced tendency to attribute hostile intentions to others. However, limited information is available regarding the factors that contribute to the development of such hostile attribution tendencies. We examined factors that contribute to individual differences in child hostile attributions and aggression, focusing on potential pathways from maternal hostile attributions via negative parenting behavior. We conducted a longitudinal study of 98 mothers and children (47 male, 51 female), recruited from groups experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity. Maternal hostile attributions, observed parenting, and child behaviour were assessed at 18 months and 5 years child age, and child hostile attributions were also examined at 5 years. Independent assessments of maternal and child processes were utilized where possible. Analyses provided support for a direct influence of maternal hostile attributions on the development of child hostile attributions and aggressive behaviour. Maternal hostile attributions were also associated with negative parenting behaviour, which in turn influenced child adjustment. Even taking account of possible parenting influences and preexisting child difficulties, hostile attributions in the mother showed a direct link with child aggression at 5 years. Maternal hostile attributions were themselves related to psychosocial adversity. We conclude that maternal hostile attributions are prevalent in high-risk samples and are related to less optimal parenting behaviour, child hostile attributions, and child aggression. Targeting hostile maternal cognitions may be a useful adjunct to parenting programs

Risk aversion, overconfidence and private information as determinants of majority thresholds

We present and experimentally test a theoretical model of majority threshold determination as a function of voters’ risk preferences. The experimental results confirm the theoretical prediction of a positive correlation between the voter's risk aversion and the corresponding preferred majority threshold. Furthermore, the experimental results show that a voter's preferred majority threshold negatively relates to the voter's confidence about how others will vote. Moreover, in a treatment in which individuals receive a private signal about others’ voting behaviour, the confidence-related motivation of behaviour loses ground to the signal's strength.

A toxicokinetic model for thiamethoxam in rats: implications for higher-tier risk assessment

Risk assessment for mammals is currently based on external exposure measurements, but effects of toxicants are better correlated with the systemically available dose than with the external administered dose. So for risk assessment of pesticides, toxicokinetics should be interpreted in the context of potential exposure in the field taking account of the timescale of exposure and individual patterns of feeding. Internal concentration is the net result of absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME). We present a case study for thiamethoxam to show how data from ADME study on rats can be used to parameterize a body burden model which predicts body residue levels after exposures to LD50 dose either as a bolus or eaten at different feeding rates. Kinetic parameters were determined in male and female rats after an intravenous and oral administration of 14C labelled by fitting one-compartment models to measured pesticide concentrations in blood for each individual separately. The concentration of thiamethoxam in blood over time correlated closely with concentrations in other tissues and so was considered representative of pesticide concentration in the whole body. Body burden model simulations showed that maximum body weight-normalized doses of thiamethoxam were lower if the same external dose was ingested normally than if it was force fed in a single bolus dose. This indicates lower risk to rats through dietary exposure than would be estimated from the bolus LD50. The importance of key questions that should be answered before using the body burden approach in risk assessment, data requirements and assumptions made in this study are discussed in detail.

The mediating effect of environmental and ethical behaviour on supply chain partnership decisions and management appreciation of supplier partnership risks

Green supply chain management and environmental and ethical behaviour (EEB), a major component of corporate responsibility (CR), are rapidly developing fields in research and practice. The influence and effect of EEB at the functional level, however, is under-researched. Similarly, the management of risk in the supply chain has become a practical concern for many firms. It is important that managers have a good understanding of the risks associated with supplier partnerships. This paper examines the effect of firms’ investment in EEB as part of corporate social responsibility in mediating the relationship between supply chain partnership (SCP) and management appreciation of the risk of partnering. We hypothesise that simply entering into a SCP does not facilitate an appreciation of the risk of partnering and may even hamper such awareness. However, such an appreciation of the risk is facilitated through CR’s environmental and stakeholder management ethos. The study contributes further by separating risk into distinct relational and performance components. The results of a firm-level survey confirm the mediation effect, highlighting the value to supply chain strategy and design of investing in EEB on three fronts: building internal awareness, monitoring and sharing best practice.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

Atypical processing of voice sounds in infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a reduced sensitivity (degree of selective response) to social stimuli such as human voices. In order to determine whether this reduced sensitivity is a consequence of years of poor social interaction and communication or is present prior to significant experience, we used functional MRI to examine cortical sensitivity to auditory stimuli in infants at high familial risk for later emerging ASD (HR group, N = 15), and compared this to infants with no family history of ASD (LR group, N = 18). The infants (aged between 4 and 7 months) were presented with voice and environmental sounds while asleep in the scanner and their behaviour was also examined in the context of observed parent-infant interaction. Whereas LR infants showed early specialisation for human voice processing in right temporal and medial frontal regions, the HR infants did not. Similarly, LR infants showed stronger sensitivity than HR infants to sad vocalisations in the right fusiform gyrus and left hippocampus. Also, in the HR group only, there was an association between each infant's degree of engagement during social interaction and the degree of voice sensitivity in key cortical regions. These results suggest that at least some infants at high-risk for ASD have atypical neural responses to human voice with and without emotional valence. Further exploration of the relationship between behaviour during social interaction and voice processing may help better understand the mechanisms that lead to different outcomes in at risk populations.

The relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders

Background: This research investigates the relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders proposed by Bögels and Phares (2008). Challenging parenting behaviour involves the playful encouragement of children to go beyond their own limits, and may decrease children’s risk for anxiety (Bögels & Phares, 2008). Method: Parents (n = 164 mothers, 144 fathers) of 164 children aged between 3.4 and 4.8 years participated in the current study. A multi-method, multi-informant assessment of anxiety was used, incorporating data from diagnostic interviews as well as questionnaire measures. Parents completed self-report measures of their parenting behaviour (n = 147 mothers, 138 fathers) and anxiety (n = 154 mothers, 143 fathers). Mothers reported on their child’s anxiety via questionnaire as well as diagnostic interview (n = 156 and 164 respectively). Of these children, 74 met criteria for an anxiety disorder and 90 did not. Results: Fathers engaged in challenging parenting behaviour more often than mothers. Both mothers’ and fathers’ challenging parenting behaviour was associated with lower report of child anxiety symptoms. However, only mothers’ challenging parenting behaviour was found to predict child clinical anxiety diagnosis. Limitations: Shared method variance from mothers confined the interpretation of these results. Moreover, due to study design, it is not possible to delineate cause and effect. Conclusions: The finding with respect to maternal challenging parenting behaviour was not anticipated, prompting replication of these results. Future research should investigate the role of challenging parenting behaviour by both caregivers as this may have implications for parenting interventions for anxious children.

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Constructing risk across timescales and trajectories: Gay men's stories of sexual encounters

This paper explores the way risk is constructed in the stories gay men tell of their sexual experiences. It focuses on how tellers use such stories to portray themselves both as rational actors and as legitimate members of their social groups by reconstructing the ‘orderliness’ of sexual encounters. An analysis of a corpus of stories derived from a diary study of gay male sexual behaviour in Hong Kong using current theories of discourse analysis reveals how narrators organize their experiences along two primary vectors of engagement: a sequential vector along which the trajectory of the sexual encounter is presented as a chain of occurrences, each occurrence contingent upon previous ones and warranting subsequent ones, and a hierarchical vector along which processes perceived on longer timescales are portrayed as exerting pressure on the ways processes on shorter timescales unfold. Examining how men portray these vectors in their accounts of risk behaviour can help us better understand both the situatedness of risk behaviour and the ways it is linked to larger social practices, identity projects and community histories

Mediated action and sexual risk: Searching for 'culture' in discourses of homosexuality and AIDS prevention in China

This paper examines the concept of ‘culture’ and its relationship to HIV prevention. Culture is here seen as the interaction between human beings and the various ‘cultural tools’ they appropriate when taking action. Among these tools are ways of speaking which encode certain meanings, ideologies and social practices. When individuals take action with regard to AIDS, what they do is mediated through voices which they borrow strategically from their environ- ment. The textual tools that are available and the ways individuals adapt and combine them work to either limit or amplify their participation in HIV prevention. What are traditionally seen as ‘cultures’ or ‘sub-cultures’, or worse, ‘risk groups’, are, in this perspective, viewed as ‘communities of practice’, groups of individuals who share particular cultural tools and ways of using them. This conceptual framework is applied to recent discourses of homosexuality and AIDS prevention in China. An instance of ‘of� cial’ discourse in the form of an AIDS education pamphlet for ‘gays’ is analysed for the voices it contains and how these voices are strategically marshalled by the authors and mixed with other voices in ways which amplify participation in AIDS prevention for some and limit it for others. This ‘offical’ discourse is then compared to the discourse of homosexually active Chinese men recently interviewed in Beijing and Fuzhou to examine which of these of� cial voices and other voices they appropriate, and how they adapt these voices in responding to HIV.

Suicide candy: tracing the discourse itineraries of food risk

Traditional approaches to the way people react to food risks often focus on ways in which the media distort information about risk, or on the deficiencies in people’s interpretation of this information. In this chapter Jones offers an alternative model which sees decisions regarding food risk as taking place at a complex nexus where different people, texts, objects and practices, each with their own histories, come together. Based on a case study of a food scandal involving a particular brand of Chinese candy, Jones argues that understanding why people respond the way they do to food risk requires tracing the itineraries along which different people, texts, objects and practices have traveled to converge at particular moments, and understanding the kinds of concrete social actions that these convergences make possible.