Simulation of the future performance of low-energy evaporative cooling systems using UKCP09 climate projections

Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems. One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications. Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s.

UK innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies: drivers, barriers and systems failures

A better understanding of the systemic processes by which innovation occurs is useful, both conceptually and to inform policymaking in support of innovation in more sustainable technologies. This paper analyses current innovation systems in the UK for a range of new and renewable energy technologies, and generates policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of these innovation systems. Although incentives are in place in the UK to encourage innovation in these technologies, system failures—or ‘gaps’—are identified in moving technologies along the innovation chain, preventing their successful commercialisation. Sustained investment will be needed for these technologies to achieve their potential. It is argued that a stable and consistent policy framework is required to help create the conditions for this. In particular, such a framework should be aimed at improving risk/reward ratios for demonstration and pre-commercial stage technologies. This would enhance positive expectations, stimulate learning effects leading to cost reductions, and increase the likelihood of successful commercialisation.

The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.

The integration of proteomics and systems approaches to map regulatory mechanisms underpinning platelet function.

Platelets in the circulation are triggered by vascular damage to activate, aggregate and form a thrombus that prevents excessive blood loss. Platelet activation is stringently regulated by intracellular signalling cascades, which when activated inappropriately lead to myocardial infarction and stroke. Strategies to address platelet dysfunction have included proteomics approaches which have lead to the discovery of a number of novel regulatory proteins of potential therapeutic value. Global analysis of platelet proteomes may enhance the outcome of these studies by arranging this information in a contextual manner that recapitulates established signalling complexes and predicts novel regulatory processes. Platelet signalling networks have already begun to be exploited with interrogation of protein datasets using in silico methodologies that locate functionally feasible protein clusters for subsequent biochemical validation. Characterization of these biological systems through analysis of spatial and temporal organization of component proteins is developing alongside advances in the proteomics field. This focused review highlights advances in platelet proteomics data mining approaches that complement the emerging systems biology field. We have also highlighted nucleated cell types as key examples that can inform platelet research. Therapeutic translation of these modern approaches to understanding platelet regulatory mechanisms will enable the development of novel anti-thrombotic strategies.

On the growth of errors in data assimilation systems

Considerable progress has taken place in numerical weather prediction over the last decade. It has been possible to extend predictive skills in the extra-tropics of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter from less than five days to seven days. Similar improvements, albeit on a lower level, have taken place in the Southern Hemisphere. Another example of improvement in the forecasts is the prediction of intense synoptic phenomena such as cyclogenesis which on the whole is quite successful with the most advanced operational models (Bengtsson (1989), Gadd and Kruze (1988)). A careful examination shows that there are no single causes for the improvements in predictive skill, but instead they are due to several different factors encompassing the forecasting system as a whole (Bengtsson, 1985). In this paper we will focus our attention on the role of data-assimilation and the effect it may have on reducing the initial error and hence improving the forecast. The first part of the paper contains a theoretical discussion on error growth in simple data assimilation systems, following Leith (1983). In the second part we will apply the result on actual forecast data from ECMWF. The potential for further forecast improvements within the framework of the present observing system in the two hemispheres will be discussed.

Healable Polymer Systems

Polymers are used in many everyday technologies and their degradation due to environmental exposure has lead to great interest in materials which can heal and repair themselves. In order to design new self healing polymers it's important to understand the fundamental healing mechanisms behind the material.Healable Polymer Systems will outline the key concepts and mechanisms underpinning the design and processing of healable polymers, and indicate potential directions for progress in the future development and applications of these fascinating and potentially valuable materials. The book covers the different techniques developed successfully to date for both autonomous healable materials (those which do not require an external stimulus to promote healing) and rehealable or remendable materials (those which only recover their original physical properties if a specific stimulus is applied). These include the encapsulated-monomer approach, reversible covalent bond formation, irreversible covalent bond formation and supramolecular self-assembly providing detailed insights into their chemistry.Written by leading experts, the book provides polymer scientists with a compact and readily accessible source of reference for healable polymer systems.

Evolution of immune systems: specificity and autoreactivity

Multicellularity evolved well before 600 million years ago, and all multicellular animals have evolved since then with the need to protect against pathogens. There is no reason to expect their immune systems to be any less sophisticated than ours. The vertebrate system, based on rearranging immunoglobulin-superfamily domains, appears to have evolved partly as a result of chance insertion of RAG genes by horizontal transfer. Remarkably sophisticated systems for expansion of immunological repertoire have evolved in parallel in many groups of organisms. Vaccination of invertebrates against commercially important pathogens has been empirically successful, and suggests that the definition of an adaptive and innate immune system should no longer depend on the presence of memory and specificity, since these terms are hard to define in themselves. The evolution of randomly-created immunological repertoire also carries with it the potential for generating autoreactive specificities and consequent autoimmune damage.While invertebrates may use systems analogous to ours to control autoreactive specificities, they may have evolved alternative mechanisms which operate either at the level of individuals-within-populations rather than cells-within-individuals, by linking self-reactive specificities to regulatory pathways and non-self-reactive to effector pathways.

Characterizing intuition in information systems research

The study of intuition is an emerging area of research in psychology, social sciences, and business studies. It is increasingly of interest to the study of management, for example in decision-making as a counterpoint to structured approaches. Recently work has been undertaken to conceptualize a construct for the intuitive nature of technology. However to-date there is no common under-standing of the term intuition in information systems (IS) research. This paper extends the study of intuition in IS research by using exploratory research to cate-gorize the use of the word “intuition” and related terms in papers published in two prominent IS journals over a ten year period. The entire text of MIS Quarterly and Information Systems Research was reviewed for the years 1999 through 2008 using searchable PDF versions of these publications. As far as could be deter-mined, this is the first application of this approach in the analysis of the text of IS academic journals. The use of the word “intuition” and related terms was catego-rized using coding consistent with Grounded Theory. The focus of this research was on the first two stages of Grounded Theory analysis - the development of codes and constructs. Saturation of coding was not reached: an extended review of these publications would be required to enable theory development. Over 400 incidents of the use of “intuition”, and related terms were found in the articles reviewed. The most prominent use of the term of “intuition” was coded as “Intui-tion as Authority” in which intuition was used to validate a research objective or finding; representing approximately 37 per cent of codes assigned. The second most common coding occurred in research articles with mathematical analysis, representing about 19 per cent of the codes assigned, for example where a ma-thematical formulation or result was “intuitive”. The possibly most impactful use of the term “intuition” was “Intuition as Outcome”, representing approximately 7 per cent of all coding, which characterized research results as adding to the intui-tive understanding of a research topic or phenomena. This research contributes to a greater theoretical understanding of intuition enabling insight into the use of intuition, and the eventual development of a theory on the use of intuition in academic IS research publications. It also provides potential benefits to practi-tioners by providing insight into and validation of the use of intuition in IS man-agement. Research directions include the creation of reflective and/or formative constructs for intuition in information systems research.

Care homes’ use of medicines study: prevalence, causes and potential harm of medication errors in care homes for older people

Introduction: Care home residents are at particular risk from medication errors, and our objective was to determine the prevalence and potential harm of prescribing, monitoring, dispensing and administration errors in UK care homes, and to identify their causes. Methods: A prospective study of a random sample of residents within a purposive sample of homes in three areas. Errors were identified by patient interview, note review, observation of practice and examination of dispensed items. Causes were understood by observation and from theoretically framed interviews with home staff, doctors and pharmacists. Potential harm from errors was assessed by expert judgement. Results: The 256 residents recruited in 55 homes were taking a mean of 8.0 medicines. One hundred and seventy-eight (69.5%) of residents had one or more errors. The mean number per resident was 1.9 errors. The mean potential harm from prescribing, monitoring, administration and dispensing errors was 2.6, 3.7, 2.1 and 2.0 (0 = no harm, 10 = death), respectively. Contributing factors from the 89 interviews included doctors who were not accessible, did not know the residents and lacked information in homes when prescribing; home staff’s high workload, lack of medicines training and drug round interruptions; lack of team work among home, practice and pharmacy; inefficient ordering systems; inaccurate medicine records and prevalence of verbal communication; and difficult to fill (and check) medication administration systems. Conclusions: That two thirds of residents were exposed to one or more medication errors is of concern. The will to improve exists, but there is a lack of overall responsibility. Action is required from all concerned.

Participatory research approaches in the development of improved management practices in indigenous chickens production systems with smallholder farmers in Kenya

This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

An assessment of the prebiotic potential of single and blended substrates in anaerobic in vitro batch culture fermentations using canine faecal samples as inocula

Previously, using an in vitro static batch culture system, it was found that rice bran (RB), inulin, fibersol, mannanoligosaccharides (MOS), larch arabinogalactan and citrus pectin elicited prebiotic effects (in terms of increased numbers of bifidobacteria and lactic acid bacteria) on the faecal microbiota of a dog. The aim of the present study was to confirm the prebiotic potential of each individual substrate using multiple faecal donors, as well as assessing the prebiotic potential of 15 substrate blends made from them. Anaerobic static and stirred, pH-controlled batch culture systems inoculated with faecal samples from healthy dogs were used for this purpose. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis using seven oligonucleotide probes targeting selected bacterial groups and DAPI (total bacteria) was used to monitor bacterial populations during fermentation runs. High-performance liquid chromatography was used to measure butyrate produced as a result of bacterial fermentation of the substrates. RB and a MOS/RB blend (1:1, w/w) were shown to elicit prebiotic and butyrogenic effects on the canine microbiota in static batch culture fermentations. Further testing of these substrates in stirred, pH-controlled batch culture fermentation systems confirmed the prebiotic and butyrogenic effects of MOS/RB, with no enhancement of Clostridium clusters I and II and Escherichia coli populations.

Potential sources of mouth drying in beverages fortified with dairy proteins: a comparison of casein and whey-rich ingredients

Oral nutritional supplement drinks (ONS) are beverages high in dairy proteins that are prescribed to individuals at risk of malnutrition. Consumption of ONS is poor in elderly care facilities, with patients commenting that the sensory attributes of these drinks reduce their enjoyment and willingness to consume. Mouth drying is an attribute of ONS found to build with repeated consumption, which may further limit liking of these products. This study investigated the sources of drying sensations by sequential profiling, with a trained sensory panel rating a range of model milk systems and ONS over repeated sips and during after-effects. Sequential profiling found that fortification of milk with both caseinate and whey protein concentrate significantly increased the perception of mouth drying over repeated consumption, increasing by between 35 and 85% over consumption of 40mL. Enrichment of ONS with either whey protein concentrate or milk protein concentrate to a total protein content of 8.7% (wt/wt) resulted in whey and casein levels of 4.3:4.4% and 1.7:7.0% respectively. The product higher in whey protein was substantially more mouth drying, implying that whey proteins may be the most important contributor to mouth drying in ONS. However, efforts to mask mouth drying of protein-fortified milk by increasing sweetness or fat level were unsuccessful at the levels tested. Increasing the viscosity of protein-fortified milk led to a small but significant reduction in mouth drying. However, this approach was not successful when tested within complete ONS. Further analysis is required into the mechanism of protein-derived mouth drying to mask negative sensations and improve the enjoyment and consumption of protein-rich ONS.

Assessing pragmatic interoperability of information systems from a semiotic perspective

Most of studies on interoperability of systems integration focus on technical and semantic levels, but hardly extend investigations on pragmatic level. Our past work has addressed pragmatic interoperability, which is concerned with the relationship between signs and the potential behaviour and intention of responsible agents. We also define the pragmatic interoperability as a level concerning with the aggregation and optimisation of various business processes for achieving intended purposes of different information systems. This paper, as the extension of our previous research, is to propose an assessment method for measuring pragmatic interoperability of information systems. We firstly propose interoperability analysis framework, which is based on the concept of semiosis. We then develop pragmatic interoperability assessment process from two dimensions including six aspects (informal, formal, technical, substantive, communication, and control). We finally illustrate the assessment process in an example.

Enhanced biodiversity and pollination in UK agroforestry systems

Monoculture farming systems have had serious environmental impacts such as loss of biodiversity and pollinator decline. The authors explain how temperate agroforestry systems show potential in being able to deliver multiple environmental benefits.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.