The role of team leadership in Portuguese child protection teams

The majority of team leadership studies have ignored the specific context in which that leadership takes place and the cyclical correlation of inputs and processes on ongoing performance. It is our contention that leadership is a mediator of team processes and team effectiveness on ongoing functioning of multidisciplinary teams (MDT). The members of 126 multidisciplinary teams responded to a survey on several aspects related to the functioning and leadership of their teams. The results support the hypothesis that leadership does mediate the relationship between reflexivity and effectiveness (i.e. team management performance, boundary spanning and satisfaction) within the team. Theoretically, these findings challenge those of linear models that typically analyse the impact of leadership as something that happens in isolation. Future research should describe and consider not just the team type and tasks but also investigate the roles that context and time play in team leadership.

Organic soils promote the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes, with different foraging strategies, in the control of a major forest pest: a meta-analysis of field trial data

The large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, is a serious pest of reforestation in northern Europe. However, weevils developing in stumps of felled trees can be killed by entomopathogenic nematodes applied to soil around the stumps and this method of control has been used at an operational level in the UK and Ireland. We investigated the factors affecting the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in the control of the large pine weevil spanning 10 years of field experiments, by means of a meta-analysis of published studies and previously unpublished data. We investigated two species with different foraging strategies, the ‘ambusher’ Steinernema carpocapsae, the species most often used at an operational level, and the ‘cruiser’ Heterorhabditis downesi. Efficacy was measured both by percentage reduction in numbers of adults emerging relative to untreated controls and by percentage parasitism of developing weevils in the stump. Both measures were significantly higher with H. downesi compared to S. carpocapsae. General linear models were constructed for each nematode species separately, using substrate type (peat versus mineral soil) and tree species (pine versus spruce) as fixed factors, weevil abundance (from the mean of untreated stumps) as a covariate and percentage reduction or percentage parasitism as the response variable. For both nematode species, the most significant and parsimonious models showed that substrate type was consistently, but not always, the most significant variable, whether replicates were at a site or stump level, and that peaty soils significantly promote the efficacy of both species. Efficacy, in terms of percentage parasitism, was not density dependent.

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Linear and nonlinear generalized Fourier transforms

This article presents an overview of a transform method for solving linear and integrable nonlinear partial differential equations. This new transform method, proposed by Fokas, yields a generalization and unification of various fundamental mathematical techniques and, in particular, it yields an extension of the Fourier transform method.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Robust identification for linear-in-the-parameters models

In this paper new robust nonlinear model construction algorithms for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models are introduced to enhance model robustness, including three algorithms using combined A- or D-optimality or PRESS statistic (Predicted REsidual Sum of Squares) with regularised orthogonal least squares algorithm respectively. A common characteristic of these algorithms is that the inherent computation efficiency associated with the orthogonalisation scheme in orthogonal least squares or regularised orthogonal least squares has been extended such that the new algorithms are computationally efficient. A numerical example is included to demonstrate effectiveness of the algorithms. Copyright (C) 2003 IFAC.

Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

Comparing tube models for predicting the linear rheology of branched polymer melts

The hierarchical and "bob" (or branch-on-branch) models are tube-based computational models recently developed for predicting the linear rheology of general mixtures of polydisperse branched polymers. These two models are based on a similar tube-theory framework but differ in their numerical implementation and details of relaxation mechanisms. We present a detailed overview of the similarities and differences of these models and examine the effects of these differences on the predictions of the linear viscoelastic properties of a set of representative branched polymer samples in order to give a general picture of the performance of these models. Our analysis confirms that the hierarchical and bob models quantitatively predict the linear rheology of a wide range of branched polymer melts but also indicate that there is still no unique solution to cover all types of branched polymers without case-by-case adjustment of parameters such as the dilution exponent alpha and the factor p(2) which defines the hopping distance of a branch point relative to the tube diameter. An updated version of the hierarchical model, which shows improved computational efficiency and refined relaxation mechanisms, is introduced and used in these analyses.

Linear-wavelet models for non-linear identification applied to a pressure plant

A nonlinear regression structure comprising a wavelet network and a linear term is proposed for system identification. The theoretical foundation of the approach is laid by proving that radial wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions. A constructive procedure for building such models is described and the approach is tested with experimental data.

Linear-wavelet models applied to the identification of a two-link manipulator

This paper shows that a wavelet network and a linear term can be advantageously combined for the purpose of non linear system identification. The theoretical foundation of this approach is laid by proving that radial wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions. A constructive procedure for building such nonlinear regression structures, termed linear-wavelet models, is described. For illustration, sim ulation data are used to identify a model for a two-link robotic manipulator. The results show that the introduction of wavelets does improve the prediction ability of a linear model.

Linear-wavelet models for system identification

A model structure comprising a wavelet network and a linear term is proposed for nonlinear system identification. It is shown that under certain conditions wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions and, as a result, the two parts of the model can be identified separately. The linear-wavelet model is compared to a standard wavelet network using data from a simulated fermentation process. The results show that the linear-wavelet model yields a smaller modelling error when compared to a wavelet network using the same number of regressors.