Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

Developments in block copolymer science and technology

Focuses on recent advances in research on block copolymers, covering chemistry (synthesis), physics (phase behaviors, rheology, modeling), and applications (melts and solutions). Written by a team of internationally respected scientists from industry and academia, this text compiles and reviews the expanse of research that has taken place over the last five years into one accessible resource. Ian Hamley is the world-leading scientist in the field of block copolymer research Presents the recent advances in the area, covering chemistry, physics and applications. Provides a broad coverage from synthesis to fundamental physics through to applications Examines the potential of block copolymers in nanotechnology as self-assembling soft materials

A Nyström method for a class of integral equations on the real line with applications to scattering by diffraction gratings and rough surfaces

We propose a Nystr¨om/product integration method for a class of second kind integral equations on the real line which arise in problems of two-dimensional scalar and elastic wave scattering by unbounded surfaces. Stability and convergence of the method is established with convergence rates dependent on the smoothness of components of the kernel. The method is applied to the problem of acoustic scattering by a sound soft one-dimensional surface which is the graph of a function f, and superalgebraic convergence is established in the case when f is infinitely smooth. Numerical results are presented illustrating this behavior for the case when f is periodic (the diffraction grating case). The Nystr¨om method for this problem is stable and convergent uniformly with respect to the period of the grating, in contrast to standard integral equation methods for diffraction gratings which fail at a countable set of grating periods.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

New self-assembling multifunctional templates for the biofabrication and controlled self-release of cultured tissue

The need to source live human tissues for research and clinical applications has been a major driving force for the development of new biomaterials. Ideally, these should elicit the formation of scaffold-free tissues with native-like structure and composition. In this study, we describe a biologically interactive coating that combines the fabrication and subsequent self-release of live purposeful tissues using template–cell–environment feedback. This smart coating was formed from a self-assembling peptide amphiphile comprising a proteasecleavable sequence contiguous with a cell attachment and signaling motif. This multifunctional material was subsequently used not only to instruct human corneal or skin fibroblasts to adhere and deposit discreet multiple layers of native extracellular matrix but also to govern their own self-directed release from the template solely through the action of endogenous metalloproteases. Tissues recovered through this physiologically relevant process were carrier-free and structurally and phenotypically equivalent to their natural counterparts. This technology contributes to a new paradigm in regenerative medicine, whereby materials are able to actively direct and respond to cell behavior. The novel application of such materials as a coating capable of directing the formation and detachment of complex tissues solely under physiological conditions can have broad use for fundamental research and in future cell and tissue therapies.