The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth.

Flow structure and variability in the subtropical Indian Ocean: Instability of the South Indian Ocean Countercurrent

The origin of the eddy variability around the 25°S band in the Indian Ocean is investigated. We have found that the surface circulation east of Madagascar shows an anticyclonic subgyre bounded to the south by eastward flow from southwest Madagascar, and to the north by the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) between 15° and 20°S. The shallow, eastward flowing South Indian Ocean Countercurrent (SICC) extends above the deep reaching, westward flowing SEC to 95°E around the latitude of the high variability band. Applying a two-layer model reveals that regions of large vertical shear along the SICC-SEC system are baroclinically unstable. Estimates of the frequencies (3.5–6 times/year) and wavelengths (290–470 km) of the unstable modes are close to observations of the mesoscale variability derived from altimetry data. It is likely then that Rossby wave variability locally generated in the subtropical South Indian Ocean by baroclinic instability is the origin of the eddy variability around 25°S as seen, for example, in satellite altimetry.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Orography in a contour dynamics model of large-scale atmospheric flow

The influence of orography on the structure of stationary planetary Rossby waves is studied in the context of a contour dynamics model of the large-scale atmospheric flow. Orography of infinitesimal and finite amplitude is studied using analytical and numerical techniques. Three different types of orography are considered: idealized orography in the form of a global wave, idealized orography in the form of a local table mountain, and the earth's orography. The study confirms the importance of resonances, both in the infinitesimal orography and in the finite orography cases. With finite orography the stationary waves organize themselves into a one-dimensional set of solutions, which due to the resonances, is piecewise connected. It is pointed out that these stationary waves could be relevant for atmospheric regimes.

Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of phosphorus intake on phosphorus flow in growing pigs: Application and comparison of two models

A comparison of the models of Vitti et al. (2000, J. Anim. Sci. 78, 2706-2712) and Fernandez (1995c, Livest. Prod. Sci. 41, 255-261) was carried out using two data sets on growing pigs as input. The two models compared were based on similar basic principles, although their aims and calculations differed. The Vitti model employs the rate:state formalism and describes phosphorus (P) flow between four pools representing P content in gut, blood, bone and soft tissue in growing goats. The Fernandez model describes flow and fractional recirculation between P pools in gut, blood and bone in growing pigs. The results from both models showed similar trends for P absorption from gut to blood and net retention in bone with increasing P intake, with the exception of the 65 kg results from Date Set 2 calculated using the FernAndez model. Endogenous loss from blood back to gut increased faster with increasing P intake in the FernAndez than in the Vitti model for Data Set 1. However, for Data Set 2, endogenous loss increased with increasing P intake using the Vitti model, but decreased when calculated using the FernAndez model. Incorporation of P into bone was not influenced by intake in the FernAndez model, while in the Vitti model there was an increasing trend. The FernAndez model produced a pattern of decreasing resorption in bone with increasing P intake, with one of the data sets, which was not observed when using the Vitti model. The pigs maintained their P homeostasis in blood by regulation of P excretion in urine. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.