A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Infant Attachment Security and the Timing of Puberty: Testing an Evolutionary Hypothesis

Life-history theories of the early programming of human reproductive strategy stipulate that early rearing experience, including that reflected in infant-parent attachment security, regulates psychological, behavioral, and reproductive development. We tested the hypothesis that infant attachment insecurity, compared with infant attachment security, at the age of 15 months predicts earlier pubertal maturation. Focusing on 373 White females enrolled in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, we gathered data from annual physical exams from the ages of 9½ years to 15½ years and from self-reported age of menarche. Results revealed that individuals who had been insecure infants initiated and completed pubertal development earlier and had an earlier age of menarche compared with individuals who had been secure infants, even after accounting for age of menarche in the infants’ mothers. These results support a conditional-adaptational view of individual differences in attachment security and raise questions about the biological mechanisms responsible for the attachment effects we discerned.

Parameter estimation based on stacked regression and evolutionary algorithms

A new parameter-estimation algorithm, which minimises the cross-validated prediction error for linear-in-the-parameter models, is proposed, based on stacked regression and an evolutionary algorithm. It is initially shown that cross-validation is very important for prediction in linear-in-the-parameter models using a criterion called the mean dispersion error (MDE). Stacked regression, which can be regarded as a sophisticated type of cross-validation, is then introduced based on an evolutionary algorithm, to produce a new parameter-estimation algorithm, which preserves the parsimony of a concise model structure that is determined using the forward orthogonal least-squares (OLS) algorithm. The PRESS prediction errors are used for cross-validation, and the sunspot and Canadian lynx time series are used to demonstrate the new algorithms.

Evolutionary analysis of novel serine proteases in the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros

Background: Serine proteases are major components of viper venom and target various stages of the blood coagulation system in victims and prey. A better understanding of the diversity of serine proteases and other enzymes present in snake venom will help to understand how the complexity of snake venom has evolved and will aid the development of novel therapeutics for treating snake bites. Methodology and Principal Findings: Four serine protease-encoding genes from the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros were amplified and sequenced. Mass spectrometry suggests the four enzymes corresponding to these genes are present in the venom of B. g. rhinoceros. Two of the enzymes, rhinocerases 2 and 3 have substitutions to two of the serine protease catalytic triad residues and are thus unlikely to be catalytically active, though they may have evolved other toxic functions. The other two enzymes, rhinocerases 4 and 5, have classical serine protease catalytic triad residues and thus are likely to be catalytically active, however they have glycine rather than the more typical aspartic acid at the base of the primary specificity pocket (position 189). Based on a detailed analysis of these sequences we suggest that alternative splicing together with individual amino acid mutations may have been involved in their evolution. Changes within amino acid segments which were previously proposed to undergo accelerated change in venom serine proteases have also been observed. Conclusions and Significance: Our study provides further insight into the diversity of serine protease isoforms present within snake venom and discusses their possible functions and how they may have evolved. These multiple serine protease isoforms with different substrate specificities may enhance the envenomation effects and help the snake to adapt to new habitats and diets. Our findings have potential for helping the future development of improved therapeutics for snake bites.

Evolutionary genomics of the Fox genes: origin of gene families and the ancestry of gene clusters

Over the past decade genomic approaches have begun to revolutionise the study of animal diversity. In particular, genome sequencing programmes have spread beyond the traditional model species to encompass an increasing diversity of animals from many different phyla, as well as unicellular eukaryotes that are closely related to the animals. Whole genome sequences allow researchers to establish, with reasonable confidence, the full complement of any particular family of genes in a genome. Comparison of gene complements from appropriate genomes can reveal the evolutionary history of gene families, indicating when both gene diversification and gene loss have occurred. More than that, however, assembled genomes allow the genomic environment in which individual genes are found to be analysed and compared between species. This can reveal how gene diversification occurred. Here, we focus on the Fox genes, drawing from multiple animal genomes to develop an evolutionary framework explaining the timing and mechanism of origin of the diversity of animal Fox genes. Ancient linkages between genes are a prominent feature of the Fox genes, depicting a history of gene clusters, some of which may be relevant to understanding Fox gene function.

Parallel pipelined array architectures for real-time histogram computation in consumer devices

The real-time parallel computation of histograms using an array of pipelined cells is proposed and prototyped in this paper with application to consumer imaging products. The array operates in two modes: histogram computation and histogram reading. The proposed parallel computation method does not use any memory blocks. The resulting histogram bins can be stored into an external memory block in a pipelined fashion for subsequent reading or streaming of the results. The array of cells can be tuned to accommodate the required data path width in a VLSI image processing engine as present in many imaging consumer devices. Synthesis of the architectures presented in this paper in FPGA are shown to compute the real-time histogram of images streamed at over 36 megapixels at 30 frames/s by processing in parallel 1, 2 or 4 pixels per clock cycle.

Shifts in metabolic scaling, production, and efficiency across major evolutionary transitions of life

The diversification of life involved enormous increases in size and complexity. The evolutionary transitions from prokaryotes to unicellular eukaryotes to metazoans were accompanied by major innovations inmetabolicdesign.Hereweshowthat thescalingsofmetabolic rate, population growth rate, and production efficiency with body size have changed across the evolutionary transitions.Metabolic rate scales with body mass superlinearly in prokaryotes, linearly in protists, and sublinearly inmetazoans, so Kleiber’s 3/4 power scaling law does not apply universally across organisms. The scaling ofmaximum population growth rate shifts from positive in prokaryotes to negative in protists and metazoans, and the efficiency of production declines across these groups.Major changes inmetabolic processes duringtheearlyevolutionof life overcameexistingconstraints, exploited new opportunities, and imposed new constraints. The 3.5 billion year history of life on earth was characterized by

Gene duplication and an accelerated evolutionary rate in 11S globulin genes are associated with higher protein synthesis in dicots as compared to monocots

Background: Seed storage proteins are a major source of dietary protein, and the content of such proteins determines both the quantity and quality of crop yield. Significantly, examination of the protein content in the seeds of crop plants shows a distinct difference between monocots and dicots. Thus, it is expected that there are different evolutionary patterns in the genes underlying protein synthesis in the seeds of these two groups of plants. Results: Gene duplication, evolutionary rate and positive selection of a major gene family of seed storage proteins (the 11S globulin genes), were compared in dicots and monocots. The results, obtained from five species in each group, show more gene duplications, a higher evolutionary rate and positive selections of this gene family in dicots, which are rich in 11S globulins, but not in the monocots. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence to support the suggestion that gene duplication and an accelerated evolutionary rate may be associated with higher protein synthesis in dicots as compared to monocots.

Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Numerical computation of an analytic singular value decomposition of a matrix valued function

This paper extends the singular value decomposition to a path of matricesE(t). An analytic singular value decomposition of a path of matricesE(t) is an analytic path of factorizationsE(t)=X(t)S(t)Y(t) T whereX(t) andY(t) are orthogonal andS(t) is diagonal. To maintain differentiability the diagonal entries ofS(t) are allowed to be either positive or negative and to appear in any order. This paper investigates existence and uniqueness of analytic SVD's and develops an algorithm for computing them. We show that a real analytic pathE(t) always admits a real analytic SVD, a full-rank, smooth pathE(t) with distinct singular values admits a smooth SVD. We derive a differential equation for the left factor, develop Euler-like and extrapolated Euler-like numerical methods for approximating an analytic SVD and prove that the Euler-like method converges.