Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

A low-cost wireless temperature sensor: evaluation for use in environmental applications

With a wide range of applications benefiting from dense network air temperature observations but with limitations of costs, existing siting guidelines and risk of damage to sensors, new methods are required to gain a high resolution understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of urban meteorological phenomena such as the urban heat island or precision farming needs. With the launch of a new generation of low cost sensors it is possible to deploy a network to monitor air temperature at finer spatial resolutions. Here we investigate the Aginova Sentinel Micro (ASM) sensor with a bespoke radiation shield (together < US$150) which can provide secure near-real-time air temperature data to a server utilising existing (or user deployed) Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) networks. This makes it ideally suited for deployment where wireless communications readily exist, notably urban areas. Assessment of the performance of the ASM relative to traceable standards in a water bath and atmospheric chamber show it to have good measurement accuracy with mean errors < ± 0.22 °C between -25 and 30 °C, with a time constant in ambient air of 110 ± 15 s. Subsequent field tests of it within the bespoke shield also had excellent performance (root-mean-square error = 0.13 °C) over a range of meteorological conditions relative to a traceable operational UK Met Office platinum resistance thermometer. These results indicate that the ASM and bespoke shield are more than fit-for-purpose for dense network deployment in urban areas at relatively low cost compared to existing observation techniques.

Dairy fat: perceptions and realities.

Milk provides many key nutrients but the saturated and trans fatty acids in milk fat are associated with perceived negative effects on human health, especially cardiovascular disease. Recent epidemiological studies and dietary intervention trials challenge this perception, however; available evidence does not support the concept that consumption of saturated fats or dairy products adversely affects the risk of coronary heart disease (although replacing some saturated fats with mono or polyunsaturated fats is likely to provide benefit). Furthermore, the trans fats found in dairy products are consumed in very low amounts and do not appear to have the negative health effects associated with the consumption of industrial sources of trans fat. Milk fat is an excellent source of oleic acid that originates mainly by endogenous synthesis from stearic acid, but increasing the milk fat content of unsaturated fatty acids requires dietary formulations that bypass rumen biohydrogenation. Recent research indicates that long-chain omega-3 fatty acids and conjugated linoleic acids have potential beneficial effects in health maintenance and the prevention of chronic diseases. Enhancing the milk fat content of these fatty acids offers exciting possibilities, but educating consumers about inaccurate and inappropriate generalisations about fat remains the primary challenge. Finally, individuals do not simply consume milk-fat-derived fatty acids on their own, but rather as components in dairy foods which are highly complex and may contain many beneficial ingredients. Overall, dairy products are critical in providing many of the essential nutrients in the human diet. Nevertheless, dairy products vary in their nutrient composition, including fat, and this needs to be considered in the context of dietary recommendations and our need to consume a balanced diet.

The mediating effect of environmental and ethical behaviour on supply chain partnership decisions and management appreciation of supplier partnership risks

Green supply chain management and environmental and ethical behaviour (EEB), a major component of corporate responsibility (CR), are rapidly developing fields in research and practice. The influence and effect of EEB at the functional level, however, is under-researched. Similarly, the management of risk in the supply chain has become a practical concern for many firms. It is important that managers have a good understanding of the risks associated with supplier partnerships. This paper examines the effect of firms’ investment in EEB as part of corporate social responsibility in mediating the relationship between supply chain partnership (SCP) and management appreciation of the risk of partnering. We hypothesise that simply entering into a SCP does not facilitate an appreciation of the risk of partnering and may even hamper such awareness. However, such an appreciation of the risk is facilitated through CR’s environmental and stakeholder management ethos. The study contributes further by separating risk into distinct relational and performance components. The results of a firm-level survey confirm the mediation effect, highlighting the value to supply chain strategy and design of investing in EEB on three fronts: building internal awareness, monitoring and sharing best practice.

Atypical processing of voice sounds in infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a reduced sensitivity (degree of selective response) to social stimuli such as human voices. In order to determine whether this reduced sensitivity is a consequence of years of poor social interaction and communication or is present prior to significant experience, we used functional MRI to examine cortical sensitivity to auditory stimuli in infants at high familial risk for later emerging ASD (HR group, N = 15), and compared this to infants with no family history of ASD (LR group, N = 18). The infants (aged between 4 and 7 months) were presented with voice and environmental sounds while asleep in the scanner and their behaviour was also examined in the context of observed parent-infant interaction. Whereas LR infants showed early specialisation for human voice processing in right temporal and medial frontal regions, the HR infants did not. Similarly, LR infants showed stronger sensitivity than HR infants to sad vocalisations in the right fusiform gyrus and left hippocampus. Also, in the HR group only, there was an association between each infant's degree of engagement during social interaction and the degree of voice sensitivity in key cortical regions. These results suggest that at least some infants at high-risk for ASD have atypical neural responses to human voice with and without emotional valence. Further exploration of the relationship between behaviour during social interaction and voice processing may help better understand the mechanisms that lead to different outcomes in at risk populations.

Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.