The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

The expression of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) in the Helvetic Alps

Upper Cenomanian pelagic sediments from the northern Alpine Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt (northern Tethyan margin) coeval with Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 2 are characterized by the temporal persistence of micrite sedimentation and lack of organic carbon-rich layers. We studied an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (east of Euthal, Switzerland), which encompasses the OAE 2 time interval. In order to identify the paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin, and more specifically to trace eventual changes in nutrient levels and oxic conditions, we investigated the biostratigraphy (planktonic foraminifera), the bulk-rock mineralogy, and measured stable carbon- and oxygen-isotopes, total phosphorus (P) and redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) contents. We were able to determine – with some remaining uncertainties – the different planktonic foraminiferal biozones characteristic of the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval (Rotalipora cushmani, Whiteinella archaeocretacea and Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica zones). In the lower part of the section (R. cushmani total range zone), the bulk-rock δ13C record shows a long-term increase. Within sediments attributed to the W. archaeocretacea partial range zone, δ13C values reach a maximum of 3.3‰ (peak “a”). In the following the values decrease and increase again to arrive at a plateau with high δ13C values of around 3.1‰, which ends with a peak of 3.3‰ (peak “c”). At the top of the section, in sediments belonging to the H. helvetica total range zone, δ13C values decrease to post-OAE values of around 2.2‰. The last occurrence of R. cushmani is observed just above the positive δ13C shift characterizing OAE 2. P contents display small variations along the section with a long-term decreasing trend towards the top. Before the OAE 2 interval, P values show higher values and relatively good covariation with detrital input, indicating higher nutrient input before OAE 2. In sediments corresponding to the onset of the δ13C positive excursion, P content is marked by a sharp peak probably linked to a slowdown in sedimentation rates and/or the presence of a small hiatus, as is shown by the presence of glauconite and phosphatic grains. In the interval corresponding to OAE 2, P values remain low and increase slightly at the end of the positive shift in the δ13C record (in the H. helvetica total range zone). The average contents of RSTE (U, V, As, Co, Mo and Mn) remain low throughout the section and appreciable RSTE enrichments have not been observed for the sedimentary interval corresponding to OAE 2. No correlation is observed with stratigraphic trends in RSTE contents in organic-rich deeper-water sections. The presence of double-keeled planktonic foraminifera species during most of the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary event is another evidence of relatively well-oxygenated conditions in this part of the northern Tethyan outer shelf. Our results show that the Chrummflueschlucht section corresponds to one of the most complete section for the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm even if a small hiatus may be present at the onset of the δ13C record (peak “a”). The evolution of P contents suggests an increase in input of this nutritive element at the onset of OAE2. However, the trends in RSTE contents and the planktonic foraminifera assemblages show that the Helvetic realm has not been affected by strongly depleted oxygen conditions during OAE 2.

Terminal: a miracle play with popular music from the end of the world

Terminal: A Miracle Play with Popular Music from the End of the World is a film and live performance project exploring the politics of post-apocalyptic fiction. A theatrical staging of a morality play for end times and future folk music, it recasts eschatology, as a foundational myth for a future society. Post-apocalyptic writing and cinema are grounded in an ethos of survivalism. Invoking Rousseau’s state of nature, or time before government, these fictions propose violent scenarios in which nuclear holocaust, environmental catastrophe and other disasters generate an individualistic politics of pure pragmatism, negating the possibility of democratic deliberation. Terminal narrates this familiar scenario, but at the same time questions its validity. The film, shot on black and white VHS at Kurt Schwitters’ Merzbarn in Cumbria, dramatises a series of conversations between future-historical archetypes about the needs and pressures of the situation in which they find themselves at the end of the world. The performers then gather to play worshipful songs about acid rain, radiation sickness and eating the dog, using a mix of conventional, obscure and makeshift instruments In the tradition of books such as Russell Hoban’s Riddley Walker and Arthur M. Miller Jr.’s A Canticle for Liebowitz, Terminal imagines artistic expression and new folk traditions for a world to come after the apocalypse. If, as Slavoj Žižek would have it, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to think of the end of capitalism, the project juxtaposes these two endpoints to test out how alternative scenarios might emerge from the collaborative practice of making theatre and music against a setting of social collapse.

Mutual binding of polymer end-groups by complementary π–π-stacking: a molecular “Roman Handshake”

Self-complementary tweezer-molecules based on a naphthalenediimide core self-assemble into supramolecular dimers through mutual π–π-stacking and hydrogen bonding. The resulting motif is extremely stable in solution (Ka = 105 M−1), and its attachment to one terminal position of a poly(ethylene glycol) chain leads to a doubling of the polymer's apparent molecular weight.

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming.

Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Wind generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model (WAM) is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present day and potential future climate conditions represented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate towards the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in mid-latitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the mid to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

Control without deception

Lying to participants offers an experimenter the enticing prospect of making “others' behaviour” a controlled variable, but is eschewed by experimental economists because it may pollute the pool of subjects. This paper proposes and implements a new experimental design, the Conditional Information Lottery, which offers all the benefits of deception without actually deceiving anyone. The design should be suitable for most economics experiments, and works by a modification of an already standard device, the Random Lottery incentive system. The deceptive scenarios of designs which use deceit are replaced with fictitious scenarios, each of which, from a subject's viewpoint, has a chance of being true. The design is implemented in a sequential play public good experiment prompted by Weimann's (1994) result, from a deceptive design, that subjects are more sensitive to freeriding than cooperation on the part of others. The experiment provides similar results to Weimann's, in that subjects are at least as cooperative when uninformed about others' behaviour as they are if reacting to high contributions. No deception is used and the data cohere well both internally and with other public goods experiments. In addition, simultaneous play is found to be more efficient than sequential play, and subjects contribute less at the end of a sequence than at the start. The results suggest pronounced elements of overconfidence, egoism and (biased) reciprocity in behaviour, which may explain decay in contributions in repeated play designs. The experiment shows there is a workable alternative to deception.

Like the living end

A chapbook of seventeen new poems, not to be confused with the single poem of the same name (the title poem) listed in its own right as a separate publication.

The end of the opportunism vs trust debate: bounded reliability as a new envelope concept in research on MNE governance

Modern transaction cost economics (TCE) thinking has developed into a key intellectual foundation of international business (IB) research, but the Williamsonian version has faced substantial criticism for adopting the behavioral assumption of opportunism. In this paper we assess both the opportunism concept and existing alternatives such as trust within the context of IB research, especially work on multinational enterprise (MNE) governance. Case analyses of nine global MNEs illustrate an alternative to the opportunism assumption that captures more fully the mechanisms underlying failed commitments inside the MNE. As a substitute for the often-criticized assumption of opportunism, we propose the envelope concept of bounded reliability (BRel), an assumption that represents more accurately and more completely the reasons for failed commitments, without invalidating the other critical assumption in conventional TCE (and internalization theory) thinking, namely the widely accepted envelope concept of bounded rationality (BRat). Bounded reliability as an envelope concept includes two main components, within the context of global MNE management: opportunism as intentional deceit, and benevolent preference reversal. The implications for IB research of adopting the bounded reliability concept are far reaching, as this concept may increase the legitimacy of comparative institutional analysis in the social sciences.

Sustainable urban metabolism as a link between bio-physical sciences and urban planning: the BRIDGE project

Urban metabolism considers a city as a system with flows of energy and material between it and the environment. Recent advances in bio-physical sciences provide methods and models to estimate local scale energy, water, carbon and pollutant fluxes. However, good communication is required to provide this new knowledge and its implications to endusers (such as urban planners, architects and engineers). The FP7 project BRIDGE (sustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support accountinG for urban mEtabolism) aimed to address this gap by illustrating the advantages of considering these issues in urban planning. The BRIDGE Decision Support System (DSS) aids the evaluation of the sustainability of urban planning interventions. The Multi Criteria Analysis approach adopted provides a method to cope with the complexity of urban metabolism. In consultation with targeted end-users, objectives were defined in relation to the interactions between the environmental elements (fluxes of energy, water, carbon and pollutants) and socioeconomic components (investment costs, housing, employment, etc.) of urban sustainability. The tool was tested in five case study cities: Helsinki, Athens, London, Florence and Gliwice; and sub-models were evaluated using flux data selected. This overview of the BRIDGE project covers the methods and tools used to measure and model the physical flows, the selected set of sustainability indicators, the methodological framework for evaluating urban planning alternatives and the resulting DSS prototype.

Radical cations of end-capped tetrathienoacenes and their p-dimerization controlled by the nature of a-substituents and counterion concentration

Radical cations of a soluble rigid tetrathienoacene are capable of forming stable p-dimer dications at ambient temperature when the short backbone becomes extended with conjugated thiophene-2-yl substituents in the a-positions. On the other hand, simple attachment of methyl groups on the a-carbon of the external thiophen-2-yl rings proved sufficient to inhibit the dimerization. Stable radical cationswere also exclusively formed for tetrathienoacene derivatives end-capped with bulky TIPS and phenyl substituents.

In at the Deep End. Impressions of farming in a year gaining experience: 1952-3; 1978-85

The book describes a wide variety of students’ experiences in their practical year prior to entering University to study BSc Agriculture. Until comparatively recently it was the normal requirement for all such students, whether or not they already had home farming experience, to gain a full year’s experience of practical agriculture – and to write a report thereon. This record of 41 students’ reports of the pre-entry year begins with Paul’s own experience in the early 1950s before 41 reports from 30 or more years ago. The essays provide compelling and fascinating stories, well-articulated with clear acknowledgement for most part of the humanity and the warmth with which each student was treated by farmers and farm workers alike, despite the difference in both age and experience (considerable!). [This summary is an extract from the full overview which is archived here together with the book.]