Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections (HadCM3 global climate model) for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

The impact of climate change on the treatability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in upland water supplies: A UK perspective

Climate change in the UK is expected to cause increases in temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events. In this review we discuss climate effects on dissolved organic matter (DOM), how altered DOM and water physico-chemical properties will affect treatment processes and assess the utility of techniques used to remove DOM and monitor water quality. A critical analysis of the literature has been undertaken with a focus on catchment drivers of DOM character, removal of DOM via coagulation and the formation of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). We suggest that: (1) upland catchments recovering from acidification will continue to produce more DOM with a greater hydrophobic fraction as solubility controls decrease; (2) greater seasonality in DOM export is likely in future due to altered precipitation patterns; (3) changes in species diversity and water properties could encourage algal blooms; and (4) that land management and vegetative changes may have significant effects on DOM export and treatability but require further research. Increases in DBPs may occur where catchments have high influence from peatlands or where algal blooms become an issue. To increase resilience to variable DOM quantity and character we suggest that one or more of the following steps are undertaken at the treatment works: a) ‘enhanced coagulation’ optimised for DOM removal; b) switching from aluminium to ferric coagulants and/or incorporating coagulant aids; c) use of magnetic ion-exchange (MIEX) pre-coagulation; and d) activated carbon filtration post-coagulation. Fluorescence and UV absorbance techniques are highlighted as potential methods for low-cost, rapid on-line process optimisation to improve DOM removal and minimise DBPs.

Reform of the planning system in Northern Ireland: your chance to influence change

Consultation on the Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland commenced on 6 July 2009 with the publication of the long awaited proposals paper: 'Reform of the Planning System in Northern Ireland: Your chance to influence change'. A 12 week consultation period followed during which time a series of consultation roadshow events were undertaken. This report is an account of that strand of the reform consultation and the discussions that took place at the roadshows during a three week period in September 2009. The roadshow events formed the central part in a process of encouraging engagement and response to the Reform Proposals before the closing date of 2 October 2009. They were organised and facilitated by a team of event managers and independent planners who, together with key Planning Service personnel, attended a mixture of day and evening events in each of the new eleven council areas to hear the views and opinions of those who came along. Aside from being publicly advertised, over 1,500 invitations (written and e-invites) were issued to a wide range of sectors, including the business community,environmentalists, councils, community and voluntary groups and other organisations, and 1,000 fliers were issued to libraries, leisure centres, council offices and civic centres. In total almost 500 people took up the invitation and came along to one or more of the events.

Earthworm distribution and abundance predicted by a process-based model

Earthworms are significant ecosystem engineers and are an important component of the diet of many vertebrates and invertebrates, so the ability to predict their distribution and abundance would have wide application in ecology, conservation and land management. Earthworm viability is known to be affected by the availability and quality of food resources, soil water conditions and temperature, but has not yet been modelled mechanistically to link effects on individuals to field population responses. Here we present a novel model capable of predicting the effects of land management and environmental conditions on the distribution and abundance of Aporrectodea caliginosa, the dominant earthworm species in agroecosystems. Our process-based approach uses individual based modelling (IBM), in which each individual has its own energy budget. Individual earthworm energy budgets follow established principles of physiological ecology and are parameterised for A. caliginosa from experimental measurements under optimal conditions. Under suboptimal conditions (e.g. food limitation, low soil temperatures and water contents) reproduction is prioritised over growth. Good model agreement to independent laboratory data on individual cocoon production and growth of body mass, under variable feeding and temperature conditions support our representation of A. caliginosa physiology through energy budgets. Our mechanistic model is able to accurately predict A. caliginosa distribution and abundance in spatially heterogeneous soil profiles representative of field study conditions. Essential here is the explicit modelling of earthworm behaviour in the soil profile. Local earthworm movement responds to a trade-off between food availability and soil water conditions, and this determines the spatiotemporal distribution of the population in the soil profile. Importantly, multiple environmental variables can be manipulated simultaneously in the model to explore earthworm population exposure and effects to combinations of stressors. Potential applications include prediction of the population-level effects of pesticides and changes in soil management e.g. conservation tillage and climate change.

A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component

About 90% of the anthropogenic increase in heat stored in the climate system is found the oceans. Therefore it is relevant to understand the details of ocean heat uptake. Here we present a detailed, process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes in HiGEM1.2, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with an eddy-permitting ocean component of 1/3 degree resolution. Similarly to various other models, HiGEM1.2 shows that the global heat budget is dominated by a downward advection of heat compensated by upward isopycnal diffusion. Only in the upper tropical ocean do we find the classical balance between downward diapycnal diffusion and upward advection of heat. The upward isopycnal diffusion of heat is located mostly in the Southern Ocean, which thus dominates the global heat budget. We compare the responses to a 4xCO2 forcing and an enhancement of the windstress forcing in the Southern Ocean. This highlights the importance of regional processes for the global ocean heat uptake. These are mainly surface fluxes and convection in the high latitudes, and advection in the Southern Ocean mid-latitudes. Changes in diffusion are less important. In line with the CMIP5 models, HiGEM1.2 shows a band of strong OHU in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean in the 4xCO2 run, which is mostly advective. By contrast, in the high-latitude Southern Ocean regions it is the suppression of convection that leads to OHU. In the enhanced windstress run, convection is strengthened at high Southern latitudes, leading to heat loss, while the magnitude of the OHU in the Southern mid-latitudes is very similar to the 4xCO2 results. Remarkably, there is only very small global OHU in the enhanced windstress run. The wind stress forcing just leads to a redistribution of heat. We relate the ocean changes at high southern latitudes to the effect of climate change on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It weakens in the 4xCO2 run and strengthens in the wind stress run. The weakening is due to a narrowing of the ACC, caused by an expansion of the Weddell Gyre, and a flattening of the isopycnals, which are explained by a combination of the wind stress forcing and increased precipitation.

Modelling the resistance of Enterprise Architecture adoption: linking strategic level of Enterprise Architecture to organisational changes and change resistance

During the last few years Enterprise Architecture (EA) has received increasing attention among industry and academia. By adopting EA, organisations may gain a number of benefits such as better decision making,increased revenues and cost reduction, and alignment of business and IT. However, EA adoption has been found to be difficult. In this paper a model to explain resistance during EA adoption process (REAP) is introduced and validated. The model reveals relationships between strategic level of EA, resulting organisational changes, and sources of resistance. By utilising REAP model, organisations may anticipate and prepare for the organisational change resistance during EA adoption.

Economic valuation of an offshore wind farm in Greece: the role of individual’s base-state influences and beliefs in the value formation process

The increased concern for the impacts of climate change on the environment, along with the growing industry of renewable energy sources, and especially wind power, has made the valuation of environmental services and goods of great significance. Offshore wind energy is being exploited exponentially and its importance for renewable energy generation is increasing. We apply a double-bound dichotomous Contingent Valuation Method analysis in order to both a) estimating the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of Greek residents for green electricity produced by offshore wind farm located between the islands of Tinos and Andros and b) identifying factors behind respondents’ WTP including individual’s behaviour toward environment and individual’s views on climate change and renewable energy. A total of 141 respondents participated in the questionnaire. Results show that the respondents are willing to pay on average 20€ every two months through their electricity bill in return for carbon-free electricity and water saving from the wind farm. Respondents’ environmental consciousness and their perception towards climate change and renewable energy have a positive effect on their WTP.

Change in the archive: Blanchot's 'L'Entretien infini'

Today we are faced with the problem of how to relate the archives of deconstructionist thinkers to their thought, which seems opposed to historically-oriented or genetic criticism. This article is the first to look comprehensively at the gestation of Maurice Blanchot's L'Entretien infini, including the work's page-proofs which were made available in 2009. I thus address the multiple processes of change at work throughout Blanchot's writing, with change being a process whose importance goes beyond any single new form of writing resulting from it. My presentation of the archival material is contextualized via a discussion of the notion of L'Absence de livre (the project's working title). Rather than being a straightfoward incompleteness or fragmentation, this notion establishes a fraught relationship between such ideas and what it calls ‘le Livre’.

IFRS for SMEs: the IASB’S due process

This study explores the role of the International Accounting Standards Board’s (IASB) due process in developing its International Financial Reporting Standards for Small and Medium-sized Entities (IFRS or SMEs)standard. There were tensions between the IASB’s desire to minimise divergence from full IFRS and preserve recognition and measurement principles, and the primary reasons for undertaking the project – to meet the needs of users of financial statements of SMEs and to reduce the financial reporting burden on SMEs. Examination of events during the development of the project reveals much that was not apparent from material in the public domain. Most significantly, the IASB recognised that the final title of the standard, IFRS for SMEs, does not necessarily describe the scope of the standard. This paper also shows that the due process followed in the case of the IFRS for SMEs project barely reflected the ‘will of people’ but was more inclined towards acting as a communicative function for the IASB without any commitment to change its stance on the SME standard.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Interactive learning in UK construction practice: examining the role of BIM process standards

From a construction innovation systems perspective, firms acquire knowledge from suppliers, clients, universities and institutional environment. Building information modelling (BIM) involves these firms using new process standards. To understand the implications on interactive learning using BIM process standards, a case study is conducted with the UK operations of a multinational construction firm. Data is drawn from: a) two workshops involving the firm and a wider industry group, b) observations of practice in the BIM core team and in three ongoing projects, c) 12 semi-structured interviews; and d) secondary publications. The firm uses a set of BIM process standards (IFC, PAS 1192, Uniclass, COBie) in its construction activities. It is also involved in a pilot to implement the COBie standard, supported by technical and management standards for BIM, such as Uniclass and PAS1192. Analyses suggest that such BIM process standards unconsciously shapes the firm's internal and external interactive learning processes. Internally standards allow engineers to learn from each through visualising 3D information and talking around designs with operatives to address problems during construction. Externally, the firm participates in trial and pilot projects involving other construction firms, government agencies, universities and suppliers to learn about the standard and access knowledge to solve its specific design problems. Through its BIM manager, the firm provides feedback to standards developers and information technology suppliers. The research contributes by articulating how BIM process standards unconsciously change interactive learning processes in construction practice. Further research could investigate these findings in the wider UK construction innovation system.

Reframing resistance to change: experience from General Motors Poland

This paper describes the successful introduction of a kaizen scheme in a General Motors factory plant in Gliwice, Poland. Employee value systems changed, despite the presence of strong, pre-existing values that might have inhibited this process. These findings are drawn on to examine the concept of ‘resistance to change’ and replace it with a notion of ‘functional persistence’. Our case study illustrates how assuming this position can aid the development of new work attitudes, as opposed to constraining the old ones.

An assessment of the effects of climate change on horticulture

Horticulture may be defined as the intensive cultivation and harvesting of plants for financial, environmental and social profit. Evidence for the occurrence of climate change more generally and reasons why this process is happening with such rapidity are discussed. These changes are then considered in terms of the effects which might alter the options for worldwide intensive horticultural cultivation of plants and its interactions with other organisms. Potentially changing climates will have considerable impact upon horticultural processes and productivity across the globe . Climate change will alter the growth patterns and capabilities for flowering and fruiting of many perennial and annual horticultural plants. In some regions perennial fruit crops are likely to experience substantial difficulties because of altered seasonal conditions affecting dormancy, acclimation and subsequent flowering and fruiting. Elsewhere these crops may benefit from the effects of climate change as a result of reduced cold damage and increased length of the growing season. There will be considerable effects for aerial and edaphic microbes invertebrate and vertebrate animals which have benign and pathogenic interactions with horticultural plants. Microbial activity and as a consequence soil fertility may alter. New pests and pathogens may become prevalent and damaging in areas where the climate previously excluded their activity. Vital resources such as water and nutrients may become scarce in some regions reducing opportunities for growing horticultural crops. Wind and windiness are significant factors governing the success of horticultural plants and the scale of their impacts may change as climate alters. Damaging winds could limit crop growing in areas where previously it flourished. Forms of macro- and micro-landscaping will change as the spectrum of plants which can be cultivated alters and the availability of resources and their cost changes driven by scarcities brought about by climate change. The horticultural economy of India as it may be affected by climate change is described as an individual example in a detailed study.

Participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in coastal cities: lessons from a pilot experience in Maputo, Mozambique

This paper proposes a rights-based approach for participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in urban areas. Participatory urban planning ties climate change adaptation to local development opportunities. Previous discussions suggest that participatory urban planning may help to understand structural inequalities, to gain, even if temporally, institutional support and to deliver a planning process in constant negotiation with local actors. Building upon an action research project which implemented a process of participatory urban planning for climate change in Maputo, Mozambique, this paper reflects upon the practical lessons that emerged from these experiences, in relation to the incorporation of climate change information, the difficulties to secure continued support from local governments and the opportunities for local impacts through the implementation of the proposals emerging from this process.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.