A new theory of educational change - punctuated equilibrium: the case of the internationalisation of Higher Education institutions

This article argues for a new theoretical paradigm for the analysis of change in educational institutions that is able to deal with such issues as readiness for change, transformational change and the failure of change strategies. Punctuated equilibrium (Tushman and Romanelli, 1985) is a theory which has wide application. It envisages long-term change as being made up of a succession of long periods of relative stability interspersed by brief periods of rapid profound change. In the periods of stability only relatively small incremental changes are possible. The periods of transformational change may be triggered by external or internal influences. A recent study of the long-term process of internationalisation in higher education institutions shows evidence to support the theory: long periods of incremental change, events precipitating profound change and the failure of externally imposed attempts to change. Also, as the theory predicts, changes in collegial organisations are slower and more uncertain than changes in managed organisations.

A novel method for measuring lag times in division of individual bacterial cells using image analysis

A method is presented for determining the time to first division of individual bacterial cells growing on agar media. Bacteria were inoculated onto agar-coated slides and viewed by phase-contrast microscopy. Digital images of the growing bacteria were captured at intervals and the time to first division estimated by calculating the "box area ratio". This is the area of the smallest rectangle that can be drawn around an object, divided by the area of the object itself. The box area ratios of cells were found to increase suddenly during growth at a time that correlated with cell division as estimated by visual inspection of the digital images. This was caused by a change in the orientation of the two daughter cells that occurred when sufficient flexibility arose at their point of attachment. This method was used successfully to generate lag time distributions for populations of Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, but did not work with the coccoid organism Staphylococcus aureus. This method provides an objective measure of the time to first cell division, whilst automation of the data processing allows a large number of cells to be examined per experiment. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancing change detection in low-quality surveillance footage using markov random fields

Urban surveillance footage can be of poor quality, partly due to the low quality of the camera and partly due to harsh lighting and heavily reflective scenes. For some computer surveillance tasks very simple change detection is adequate, but sometimes a more detailed change detection mask is desirable, eg, for accurately tracking identity when faced with multiple interacting individuals and in pose-based behaviour recognition. We present a novel technique for enhancing a low-quality change detection into a better segmentation using an image combing estimator in an MRF based model.

Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability

This paper presents preliminary results from an assessment of the barriers to adaptation to water supply shortage in a case study catchment in south east England with multiple supply companies. The investigation applies a conceptual framework, which distinguishes between generic barriers affecting the ability of supply companies to make adaptation decisions, and specific barriers to the implementation of each option. The preliminary analysis suggests that whilst there is a widespread awareness of the challenge of climate change, and a conceptual understanding of the need for adaptation, some of the generic barriers that will affect detailed evaluations and actual adaptation decisions have yet to be approached. The analysis also shows that different individual adaptation options are assessed differently by different stakeholders, and that there are differences in the barriers to adoption between supply-side and demand-side measures. First, however, the paper develops the general conceptual framework for the characterisation of the barriers to adaptation used in the study.

Pollen analysis and planted ancient woodland restoration strategies: a case study from the Wentwood, southeast Wales,UK

This paper considers the contribution of pollen analysis to conservation strategies aimed at restoring planted ancient woodland. Pollen and charcoal data are presented from organic deposits located adjacent to the Wentwood, a large planted ancient woodland in southeast Wales. Knowledge of the ecosystems preceding conifer planting can assist in restoring ancient woodlands by placing fragmented surviving ancient woodland habitats in a broader ecological, historical and cultural context. These habitats derive largely from secondary woodland that regenerated in the 3rd–5th centuries A.D. following largescale clearance of Quercus-Corylus woodland during the Romano-British period. Woodland regeneration favoured Fraxinus and Betula. Wood pasture and common land dominated the Wentwood during the medieval period until the enclosures of the 17th century. Surviving ancient woodland habitats contain an important Fagus component that probably reflects an earlier phase of planting preceding conifer planting in the 1880s. It is recommended that restoration measures should not aim to recreate static landscapes or woodland that existed under natural conditions. Very few habitats within the Wentwood can be considered wholly natural because of the long history of human impact. In these circumstances, restoration should focus on restoring those elements of the cultural landscape that are of most benefit to a range of flora and fauna, whilst taking into account factors that present significant issues for future conservation management, such as the adverse effects from projected climate change.

Predicting microbial pollution concentrations in UK rivers in response to land use change

The Water Framework Directive has caused a paradigm shift towards the integrated management of recreational water quality through the development of drainage basin-wide programmes of measures. This has increased the need for a cost-effective diagnostic tool capable of accurately predicting riverine faecal indicator organism (FIO) concentrations. This paper outlines the application of models developed to fulfil this need, which represent the first transferrable generic FIO models to be developed for the UK to incorporate direct measures of key FIO sources (namely human and livestock population data) as predictor variables. We apply a recently developed transfer methodology, which enables the quantification of geometric mean presumptive faecal coliforms and presumptive intestinal enterococci concentrations for base- and high-flow during the summer bathing season in unmonitored UK watercourses, to predict FIO concentrations in the Humber river basin district. Because the FIO models incorporate explanatory variables which allow the effects of policy measures which influence livestock stocking rates to be assessed, we carry out empirical analysis of the differential effects of seven land use management and policy instruments (fiscal constraint, production constraint, cost intervention, area intervention, demand-side constraint, input constraint, and micro-level land use management) all of which can be used to reduce riverine FIO concentrations. This research provides insights into FIO source apportionment, explores a selection of pollution remediation strategies and the spatial differentiation of land use policies which could be implemented to deliver river quality improvements. All of the policy tools we model reduce FIO concentrations in rivers but our research suggests that the installation of streamside fencing in intensive milk producing areas may be the single most effective land management strategy to reduce riverine microbial pollution.

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100

Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 in. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea- level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Detecting the environmental impact of the Baltic Crusades on a late-medieval (13th-15th century) frontier landscape: palynological analysis from Malbork Castle and hinterland, Northern Poland

Palaeoecological analysis of peat deposits from a small bog, combined with pollen analysis of sediments infilling the moat of the nearby Teutonic Order castle at Malbork, have been used to examine the ecological impact of the Crusades on the late-medieval landscape of Northern Poland. Studies of the environmental impact of the Crusades have been almost exclusively informed by written sources; this study is the first of its type to directly investigate the environmental context of Crusading as a force of ecological transformation on the late-medieval Baltic landscape. The pollen evidence from Malbork Castle and its hinterland demonstrate that the 12th/13th–15th centuries coincide with a marked transformation in vegetation and land-use, characterized by clearance of broadleaved woodland and subsequent agricultural intensification, particularly during the 14th/15th centuries. These changes are ascribed to landscape transformations associated with the Teutonic Order’s control of the landscape from the mid-13th century. Human activity identified in the pollen record prior to this is argued to reflect the activities of Pomeranian settlers in the area. This paper also discusses the broader palaeoecological evidence for medieval landscape change across Northern Poland.

Evolutionary analysis of novel serine proteases in the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros

Background: Serine proteases are major components of viper venom and target various stages of the blood coagulation system in victims and prey. A better understanding of the diversity of serine proteases and other enzymes present in snake venom will help to understand how the complexity of snake venom has evolved and will aid the development of novel therapeutics for treating snake bites. Methodology and Principal Findings: Four serine protease-encoding genes from the venom gland transcriptome of Bitis gabonica rhinoceros were amplified and sequenced. Mass spectrometry suggests the four enzymes corresponding to these genes are present in the venom of B. g. rhinoceros. Two of the enzymes, rhinocerases 2 and 3 have substitutions to two of the serine protease catalytic triad residues and are thus unlikely to be catalytically active, though they may have evolved other toxic functions. The other two enzymes, rhinocerases 4 and 5, have classical serine protease catalytic triad residues and thus are likely to be catalytically active, however they have glycine rather than the more typical aspartic acid at the base of the primary specificity pocket (position 189). Based on a detailed analysis of these sequences we suggest that alternative splicing together with individual amino acid mutations may have been involved in their evolution. Changes within amino acid segments which were previously proposed to undergo accelerated change in venom serine proteases have also been observed. Conclusions and Significance: Our study provides further insight into the diversity of serine protease isoforms present within snake venom and discusses their possible functions and how they may have evolved. These multiple serine protease isoforms with different substrate specificities may enhance the envenomation effects and help the snake to adapt to new habitats and diets. Our findings have potential for helping the future development of improved therapeutics for snake bites.

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change: insights from a farming community in Sri Lanka

The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability is increasingly rising. As agriculture is the only source of income for most of them, agricultural adaptation with respect to climate change is vital for their sustenance and to ensure food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the farmers’ perception of climate change, actual adaptations at farm-level and what factors drive and constrain their decision to adapt. Thus, this study investigates the farm-level adaptation to climate change based on the case of a farming community in Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that farmers’ perceived the ongoing climate change based on their experiences. Majority of them adopted measures to address climate change and variability. These adaptation measures can be categorised into five groups, such as crop management, land management, irrigation management, income diversification, and rituals. The results showed that management of non-climatic factors was an important strategy to enhance farmers’ adaptation, particularly in a resource-constrained smallholder farming context. The results of regression analysis indicated that human cognition was an important determinant of climate change adaptation. Social networks were also found to significantly influence adaptation. The study also revealed that social barriers, such as cognitive and normative factors, are equally important as other economic barriers to adaptation. While formulating and implementing the adaptation strategies, this study underscored the importance of understanding socio-economic, cognitive and normative aspects of the local communities.

The Climate-G testbed: towards large scale distributed data management for climate change

Climate-G is a large scale distributed testbed devoted to climate change research. It is an unfunded effort started in 2008 and involving a wide community both in Europe and US. The testbed is an interdisciplinary effort involving partners from several institutions and joining expertise in the field of climate change and computational science. Its main goal is to allow scientists carrying out geographical and cross-institutional data discovery, access, analysis, visualization and sharing of climate data. It represents an attempt to address, in a real environment, challenging data and metadata management issues. This paper presents a complete overview about the Climate-G testbed highlighting the most important results that have been achieved since the beginning of this project.