Predicting the annual performance of UK real estate: timeliness versus coverage

The IPD Annual Index is the largest and most comprehensive Real Estate market index available in the UK Such coverage however inevitably leads to delays in publication. In contrast there are a number of quarterly and monthly indices which are published within days of the year end but which lack the coverage in terms of size and numbers of properties. This paper analyses these smaller but more timely indices to see whether such indices can be used to predict the performance of the IPD Annual Index. Using a number of measures of forecasting accuracy it is shown that the smaller indices provide unbiased and efficient predictions of the IPD Annual Index. Such indices also significantly outperform a naive no-change model. Although no one index performs significantly better than the others. The more timely indices however do not perfectly track the IPD Annual Index. As a result any short run predictions of performance will be subject to a degree of error. Nevertheless the more timely indices, although lacking authoritative coverage, provide a valuable service to investors giving good estimates of Real Estates performance well before the publication of the IPD Annual Index.

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

On spectral invariance of single scattering albedo for water droplets and ice crystals at weakly absorbing wavelengths

The single scattering albedo w_0l in atmospheric radiative transfer is the ratio of the scattering coefficient to the extinction coefficient. For cloud water droplets both the scattering and absorption coefficients, thus the single scattering albedo, are functions of wavelength l and droplet size r. This note shows that for water droplets at weakly absorbing wavelengths, the ratio w_0l(r)/w_0l(r0) of two single scattering albedo spectra is a linear function of w_0l(r). The slope and intercept of the linear function are wavelength independent and sum to unity. This relationship allows for a representation of any single scattering albedo spectrum w_0l(r) via one known spectrum w_0l(r0). We provide a simple physical explanation of the discovered relationship. Similar linear relationships were found for the single scattering albedo spectra of non-spherical ice crystals.

Purified galactooligosaccharide, derived from a mixture produced by the enzymic activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum, reduces Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium adhesion and invasion in vitro and in vivo

The prebiotic Bimuno (R) is a mixture containing galactooligosaccharides (GOSs), produced by the galactosyltransferase activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 411 71 using lactose as the substrate Previous in vivo and in vitro studies demonstrating the efficacy of Bimuno (R) in reducing Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S Typhimurium) colonization did not ascertain whether or not the protective effects could be attributed to the prebiotic component GOS Here we wished to test the hypothesis that GOS, derived from Bimuno (R) may confer the direct anti-invasive and protective effects of Bimuno (R) In this study the efficacy of Bimuno (R), a basal solution of Bimuno (R) without GOS [which contained glucose, galactose, lactose, maltodextrin and gum arabic in the same relative proportions (w/w) as they are found in Bimuno (R)] and purified GOS to reduce S Typhimurium adhesion and invasion was assessed using a series of in vitro and in vivo models The novel use of three dimensionally cultured HT-29-16E cells to study prebiotics in vitro demonstrated that the presence of similar to 5 mg Bimuno (R) ml(-1) or similar to 2 5 mg GOS ml(-1) significantly reduced the invasion of S Typhimurium (SL1344nal(r)) (P<0 0001) Furthermore, similar to 2 5 mg GOS ml(-1) significantly reduced the adherence of S Typhimurium (SU 344nal(r)) (P<0 0001) It was demonstrated that cells produced using this system formed multi-layered aggregates of cells that displayed excellent formation of brush borders and tight junctions In the murine ligated deal gut loops, the presence of Bimuno (R) or GOS prevented the adherence or invasion of S Typhimurium to enterocytes, and thus reduced its associated pathology This protection appeared to correlate with significant reductions in the neutral and acidic mucins detected in goblet cells, possibly as a consequence of stimulating the cells to secrete the mucin into the lumen In all assays, Bimuno (R) without GOS conferred no such protection, indicating that the basal solution confers no protective effects against S Typhimurium Collectively, the studies presented here clearly indicate that the protective effects conferred by Bimuno (R) can be attributed to GOS

A mixture containing galactoollgosaccharide, produced by the enzymic activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum, reduces Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium infection in mice

The prebiotic Bimuno (R) is a mixture containing galactooligosaccharide, produced by the galactosyltransferase activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 41 .vertical bar 71 in the presence of lactose. Previous studies have implicated prebiotics in reducing infections by enteric pathogens, thus it was hypothesized that Bimuno (R) may confer some protection in the murine host from Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) infection. In this study, infection caused by S. Typhimurium SL1344nal(r) in the presence or absence of Bimuno (R) was assessed using tissue culture assays, a murine ligated ileal gut loop model and a murine oral challenge model. In tissue culture adherence and invasion assays with HT-29-1 6E cells, the presence of similar to 2 mM Bimuno) significantly reduced the invasion of S. Typhimuriurn SL1 344nal(r) (p < 0.0001). In the murine ligated ileal gut loops, the presence of Bimuno (R) prevented colonization and the associated pathology of S. Typhimurium. In the BALB/c mouse mocel, the oral delivery of Bimuno prior to challenge with S. Typhimurium resulted in significant reductions in colonization in the five organs sampled, with highly significant reductions being observed in the spleen at 72 and 96 h post-challenge (P=0.0002, < 0.0001, respectively). Collectively, the results indicate that Bimuno (R) significantly reduced the colonization and pathology associated with S. Typhimurium infection in a murine model system, possibly by reducing the invasion of the pathogen into host cells.

Equol: a comparison of the effects of the racemic compound with that of the purified S-enantiomer on the growth, invasion, and DNA integrity of breast and prostate cells in vitro

It has been postulated that the R- and S-equol enantiomers have different biological properties given their different binding affinities for the estrogen receptor. S-(-)equol is produced via the bacterial conversion of the soy isoflavone daidzein in the gut. We have compared the biological effects of purified S-equol to that of racemic (R and S) equol on breast and prostate cancer cells of varying receptor status in vitro. Both racemic and S-equol inhibited the growth of the breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-231 (> or = 10 microM) and the prostate cancer cell lines LNCaP (> or = 5 microM) and LAPC-4 (> or = 2.5 microM). The compounds also showed equipotent effects in inhibiting the invasion of MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cancer cells through matrigel. S-equol (1, 10, 30 microM) was unable to prevent DNA damage in MCF-7 or MCF-10A breast cells following exposure to 2-hydroxy-4-nonenal, menadione, or benzo(a)pyrene-7,8-dihydrodiol-9,10-epoxide. In contrast, racemic equol (10, 30 microM) prevented DNA damage in MCF-10A cells following exposure to 2-hydroxy-4-nonenal or menadione. These findings suggest that racemic equol has strong antigenotoxic activity in contrast to the purified S-equol enantiomer implicating the R-, rather than the S-enantiomer as being responsible for the antioxidant effects of equol, a finding that may have implications for the in vivo chemoprotective properties of equol.

A unified theory of balance in the extratropics

Many physical systems exhibit dynamics with vastly different time scales. Often the different motions interact only weakly and the slow dynamics is naturally constrained to a subspace of phase space, in the vicinity of a slow manifold. In geophysical fluid dynamics this reduction in phase space is called balance. Classically, balance is understood by way of the Rossby number R or the Froude number F; either R ≪ 1 or F ≪ 1. We examined the shallow-water equations and Boussinesq equations on an f -plane and determined a dimensionless parameter _, small values of which imply a time-scale separation. In terms of R and F, ∈= RF/√(R^2+R^2 ) We then developed a unified theory of (extratropical) balance based on _ that includes all cases of small R and/or small F. The leading-order systems are ensured to be Hamiltonian and turn out to be governed by the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation. However, the height field is not necessarily in geostrophic balance, so the leading-order dynamics are more general than in quasi-geostrophy. Thus the quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation (as distinct from the quasi-geostrophic dynamics) is valid more generally than its traditional derivation would suggest. In the case of the Boussinesq equations, we have found that balanced dynamics generally implies hydrostatic balance without any assumption on the aspect ratio; only when the Froude number is not small and it is the Rossby number that guarantees a timescale separation must we impose the requirement of a small aspect ratio to ensure hydrostatic balance.

Analysis and compensation of power amplifier nonlinearity in MIMO transmit diversity systems

The nonlinearity of high-power amplifiers (HPAs) has a crucial effect on the performance of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPAs. Specifically, we propose a constellation-based compensation method for HPA nonlinearity in the case with knowledge of the HPA parameters at the transmitter and receiver, where the constellation and decision regions of the distorted transmitted signal are derived in advance. Furthermore, in the scenario without knowledge of the HPA parameters, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based compensation method for the HPA nonlinearity is proposed, which first estimates the channel-gain matrix by means of the SMC method and then uses the SMC-based algorithm to detect the desired signal. The performance of the MIMO-OSTBC system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD) and system capacity, in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical and simulation results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, such as the parameters of the HPA model, output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), and number of SMC samples. In particular, it is shown that the constellation-based compensation method can efficiently mitigate the effect of HPA nonlinearity with low complexity and that the SMC-based detection scheme is efficient to compensate for HPA nonlinearity in the case without knowledge of the HPA parameters.

On the effect of power amplifier nonlinearity on MIMO transmit diversity systems

Nonlinearity of high-power amplifier (HPA) plays a crucial role in the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (STBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPA. Specifically, we assess the impact of HPA nonlinearity on the average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD), and system capacity of orthogonal STBC in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

A comparison of the Thlaspi caerulescens and Thlaspi arvense shoot transcriptomes

Whole-genome transcriptome profiling is revealing how biological systems are regulated at the transcriptional level. This study reports the development of a robust method to profile and compare the transcriptomes of two nonmodel plant species, Thlaspi caerulescens, a zinc (Zn) hyperaccumulator, and Thlaspi arvense, a nonhyperaccumulator, using Affymetrix Arabidopsis thaliana ATH1-121501 GeneChip (R) arrays (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA, USA). Transcript abundance was quantified in the shoots of agar- and compost-grown plants of both species. Analyses were optimized using a genomic DNA (gDNA)-based probe-selection strategy based on the hybridization efficiency of Thlaspi gDNA with corresponding A. thaliana probes. In silico alignments of GeneChip (R) probes with Thlaspi gene sequences, and quantitative real-time PCR, confirmed the validity of this approach. Approximately 5000 genes were differentially expressed in the shoots of T. caerulescens compared with T. arvense, including genes involved in Zn transport and compartmentalization. Future functional analyses of genes identified as differentially expressed in the shoots of these closely related species will improve our understanding of the molecular mechanisms of Zn hyperaccumulation.

Proactive R&D management and firm growth: a punctuated equilibrium model

The external environment is characterized by periods of relative stability interspersed with periods of extreme change, implying that high performing firms must practice exploration and exploitation in order to survive and thrive. In this paper, we posit that R&D expenditure volatility indicates the presence of proactive R&D management, and is evidence of a firm moving from exploitation to exploration over time. This is consistent with a punctuated equilibrium model of R&D investment where shocks are induced by reactions to external turbulence. Using an unbalanced panel of almost 11,000 firm-years from 1997 to 2006, we show that greater fluctuations in the firm's R&D expenditure over time are associated with higher firm growth. Developing a contextual view of the relationship between R&D expenditure volatility and firm growth, we find that this relationship is weaker among firms with higher levels of corporate diversification and negative among smaller firms and those in slow clockspeed industries.

Habitat manipulation in lowland rice-coconut cropping systems of the Philippines: an effective rodent pest management strategy?

BACKGROUND: Reduction of vegetation height is recommended as a management strategy for controlling rodent pests of rice in South-east Asia, but there are limited field data to assess its effectiveness. The breeding biology of the main pest species of rodent in the Philippines, Rattus tanezumi, suggests that habitat manipulation in irrigated rice–coconut cropping systems may be an effective strategy to limit the quality and availability of their nesting habitat. The authors imposed a replicated manipulation of vegetation cover in adjacent coconut groves during a single rice-cropping season, and added artificial nest sites to facilitate capture and culling of young. RESULTS: Three trapping sessions in four rice fields (two treatments, two controls) adjacent to coconut groves led to the capture of 176 R. tanezumi, 12Rattus exulans and seven Chrotomysmindorensis individuals. There was no significant difference in overall abundance between crop stages or between treatments, and there was no treatment effect on damage to tillers or rice yield. Only two R. tanezumi were caught at the artificial nest sites. CONCLUSION: Habitat manipulation to reduce the quality of R. tanezumi nesting habitat adjacent to rice fields is not effective as a lone rodent management tool in rice–coconut cropping systems.

Dropout: MOOC participants’perspective

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) open up learning opportunities to a large number of people. A small percentage (around 10%) of the large numbers of participants enrolling in MOOCs manage to finish the course by completing all parts. The term ‘dropout’ is commonly used to refer to ‘all who failed to complete’ a course, and is used in relation to MOOCs. Due to the nature of MOOCs, with students not paying enrolment and tuition fees, there is no direct financial cost incurred by a student. Therefore it is debatable whether the traditional definition of dropout in higher education could be directly applied to MOOCs. This paper reports ongoing exploratory work on MOOC participants’ perspectives based on six qualitative interviews. The findings show that MOOC participants are challenging the widely held view of dropout, suggesting that it is more about failing to achieve their personal aims.

Why the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof hybrid functional description of VO2 phases is not correct

In contrast with recent claims that the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof (HSE) screened hybrid functional can provide a good description of the electronic and magnetic structures of VO2 phases [Eyert, Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.107.016401 107, 016401 (2011)], we show here that the HSE lowest-energy solutions for both the low-temperature monoclinic (M1) phase and the high-temperature rutile (R) phase, which are obtained upon inclusion of spin polarization, are at odds with experimental observations. For the M1 phase the ground state is (but should not be) magnetic, while the ground state of the R phase, which is also spin polarized, is not (but should be) metallic. The energy difference between the low-temperature and high-temperature phases has strong discrepancies with the experimental latent heat.

Paralog re-emergence: a novel, historically contingent mechanism in the evolution of antimicrobial resistance

Evolution of resistance to drugs and pesticides poses a serious threat to human health and agricultural production. CYP51 encodes the target site of azole fungicides, widely used clinically and in agriculture. Azole resistance can evolve due to point mutations or overexpression of CYP51, and previous studies have shown that fungicide-resistant alleles have arisen by de novo mutation. Paralogs CYP51A and CYP51B are found in filamentous ascomycetes, but CYP51A has been lost from multiple lineages. Here, we show that in the barley pathogen Rhynchosporium commune, re-emergence of CYP51A constitutes a novel mechanism for the evolution of resistance to azoles. Pyrosequencing analysis of historical barley leaf samples from a unique long-term experiment from 1892 to 2008 indicates that the majority of the R. commune population lacked CYP51A until 1985, after which the frequency of CYP51A rapidly increased. Functional analysis demonstrates that CYP51A retains the same substrate as CYP51B, but with different transcriptional regulation. Phylogenetic analyses show that the origin of CYP51A far predates azole use, and newly sequenced Rhynchosporium genomes show CYP51A persisting in the R. commune lineage rather than being regained by horizontal gene transfer; therefore, CYP51A re-emergence provides an example of adaptation to novel compounds by selection from standing genetic variation.