Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Wave-driven wind jets in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

The interaction between ocean surface waves and the overlying wind leads to a transfer of momentum across the air–sea interface. Atmospheric and oceanic models typically allow for momentum transfer to be directed only downward, from the atmosphere to the ocean. Recent observations have suggested that momentum can also be transferred upward when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the wind speed. The effect of upward momentum transfer on the marine atmospheric boundary layer is investigated here using idealized models that solve the momentum budget above the ocean surface. A variant of the classical Ekman model that accounts for the wave-induced stress demonstrates that, although the momentum flux due to the waves penetrates only a small fraction of the depth of the boundary layer, the wind profile is profoundly changed through its whole depth. When the upward momentum transfer from surface waves sufficiently exceeds the downward turbulent momentum flux, then the near-surface wind accelerates, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. This increases the Coriolis force in the boundary layer, and so the wind turns in the opposite direction to the classical Ekman layer. Calculations of the wave-induced stress due to a wave spectrum representative of fast-moving swell demonstrate upward momentum transfer that is dominated by contributions from waves in the vicinity of the peak in the swell spectrum. This is in contrast to wind-driven waves whose wave-induced stress is dominated by very short wavelength waves. Hence the role of swell can be characterized by the inverse wave age based on the wave phase speed corresponding to the peak in the spectrum. For a spectrum of waves, the total momentum flux is found to reverse sign and become upward, from waves to wind, when the inverse wave age drops below the range 0.15–0.2, which agrees reasonably well with previously published oceanic observations.

Synoptic controls on boundary-layer characteristics

We report the characteristics of the three-dimensional, time evolving, atmospheric boundary layer that develops beneath an idealised, dry, baroclinic weather system. The boundary-layer structure is forced by thermal advection associated with the weather system. Large positive heat fluxes behind the cold front drive a vigorous convective boundary layer, whereas moderate negative heat fluxes in the warm sector between the cold and warm fronts generate shallow, stably stratified or neutral boundary layers. The forcing of the boundary-layer structure is quantified by forming an Eulerian mass budget integrated over the depth of the boundary layer. The mass budget indicates that tropospheric air is entrained into the boundary layer both in the vicinity of the high-pressure centre, and behind the cold front. It is then transported horizontally within the boundary layer and converges towards the cyclone's warm sector, whence it is ventilated out into the troposphere. This cycling of air is likely to be important for the ventilation of pollution out of the boundary layer, and for the transformation of the properties of large-scale air masses.

Controls on boundary layer ventilation: Boundary layer processes and large-scale dynamics

Midlatitude cyclones are important contributors to boundary layer ventilation. However, it is uncertain how efficient such systems are at transporting pollutants out of the boundary layer, and variations between cyclones are unexplained. In this study 15 idealized baroclinic life cycles, with a passive tracer included, are simulated to identify the relative importance of two transport processes: horizontal divergence and convergence within the boundary layer and large-scale advection by the warm conveyor belt. Results show that the amount of ventilation is insensitive to surface drag over a realistic range of values. This indicates that although boundary layer processes are necessary for ventilation they do not control the magnitude of ventilation. A diagnostic for the mass flux out of the boundary layer has been developed to identify the synoptic-scale variables controlling the strength of ascent in the warm conveyor belt. A very high level of correlation (R-2 values exceeding 0.98) is found between the diagnostic and the actual mass flux computed from the simulations. This demonstrates that the large-scale dynamics control the amount of ventilation, and the efficiency of midlatitude cyclones to ventilate the boundary layer can be estimated using the new mass flux diagnostic. We conclude that meteorological analyses, such as ERA-40, are sufficient to quantify boundary layer ventilation by the large-scale dynamics.

Black carbon measurements in the boundary layer over western and northern Europe

Europe is a densely populated region that is a significant global source of black carbon (BC) aerosol, but there is a lack of information regarding the physical properties and spatial/vertical distribution of rBC in the region. We present the first aircraft observations of sub-micron refractory BC (rBC) aerosol concentrations and physical properties measured by a single particle soot photometer (SP2) in the lower troposphere over Europe. The observations spanned a region roughly bounded by 50° to 60° N and from 15° W to 30° E. The measurements, made between April and September 2008, showed that average rBC mass concentrations ranged from about 300 ng m−3 near urban areas to approximately 50 ng m−3 in remote continental regions, lower than previous surface-based measurements. rBC represented between 0.5 and 3% of the sub-micron aerosol mass. Black carbon mass size distributions were log-normally distributed and peaked at approximately 180 nm, but shifted to smaller diameters (~160 nm) near source regions. rBC was correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) but had different ratios to CO depending on location and air mass. Light absorption coefficients were measured by particle soot absorption photometers on two separate aircraft and showed similar geographic patterns to rBC mass measured by the SP2. We summarize the rBC and light absorption measurements as a function of longitude and air mass age and also provide profiles of rBC mass concentrations and size distribution statistics. Our results will help evaluate model-predicted regional rBC concentrations and properties and determine regional and global climate impacts from rBC due to atmospheric heating and surface dimming.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

Input usage, output mix and industry deregulation: an analysis of the Australian dairy manufacturing industry

In this paper we estimate a Translog output distance function for a balanced panel of state level data for the Australian dairy processing sector. We estimate a fixed effects specification employing Bayesian methods, with and without the imposition of monotonicity and curvature restrictions. Our results indicate that Tasmania and Victoria are the most technically efficient states with New South Wales being the least efficient. The imposition of theoretical restrictions marginally affects the results especially with respect to estimates of technical change and industry deregulation. Importantly, our bias estimates show changes in both input use and output mix that result from deregulation. Specifically, we find that deregulation has positively biased the production of butter, cheese and powders.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Effect of two opposing changes in photoperiod upon age at first egg in layer-hybrid pullets

An experiment was designed to test the response of growing pullets to two changes in photoperiod (an increase from 8 to 14 h followed 5 weeks later by the reverse change, or a decrease from 14 to 8 h followed by an increase). The first change was made either at 35 days or at 56 days of age, to test the influence of age on the responses observed. Control groups were kept oil constant 8-h and constant 14-h photoperiods and the responses to appropriate single changes were also tested. Mean age at first egg varied from 111 days for birds given a single increment at 56 days to 166 days for pullets given an increase in photoperiod at 35 days followed by a reduction at 70 days. Responses to the single changes confirmed earlier reports that sensitivity to change in photoperiod varies with age ill a manner that is quantitatively predictable. Responses to the double changes could be explained by Postulating that the initial change altered the 'physiological age' of the bird to all extent that was also quantitatively predictable. An early increase in photoperiod advances sexual development and makes the bird more sensitive to a subsequent decrease than would be expected by reference to its chronological age. An early decrease in photoperiod delays sexual development, which can have the effect of making the bird more or less sensitive to a subsequent increase since, ill layer-strain pullets, sensitivity to an increment in photoperiod normally increases Lip to about 9 weeks of age but decreases thereafter. Mean age at first egg predicted using these concepts was very highly correlated with observed age at first egg. The results provide a rational basis for constructing a model to predict age at first egg for any combination of increases and decreases in photoperiod applied to growing pullets.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Function of the hydration layer around an antifreeze protein revealed by atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanism by which the antifreeze protein from the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, binds to ice. Comparison of structural and dynamic properties of the water around the three faces of the triangular prism-shaped protein in aqueous solution reveals that at low temperature the water structure is ordered and the dynamics slowed down around the ice-binding face of the protein, with a disordering effect observed around the other two faces. These results suggest a dual role for the solvation water around the protein. The preconfigured solvation shell around the ice-binding face is involved in the initial recognition and binding of the antifreeze protein to ice by lowering the barrier for binding and consolidation of the protein:ice interaction surface. Thus, the antifreeze protein can bind to the molecularly rough ice surface by becoming actively involved in the formation of its own binding site. Also, the disruption of water structure around the rest of the protein helps prevent the adsorbed protein becoming covered by further ice growth.

Directing the structures of silver-antimony sulphides: a new topological variant of the [Ag5Sb3S8](2-) double layer

A new silver-antimony sulphide, [C6H20N4][Ag5Sb3S8], has been synthesised solvothermally in the presence of triethylenetetramine and characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetry and elemental analysis. The compound crystallises in the space group P2(1)/m (a = 6.2778(7), b = 15.8175(16) and c = 12.4617(15) angstrom and beta = 104.561(5)degrees) and adopts a structure in which honeycomb-like sheets of fused six-membered silver-antimony-sulphide rings are linked through Ag-S bonds to form double layers. The idealised structure can be considered to be derived from that of antifluorite and represents a second structure type for the [Ag5Sb3S8](2-) double layer. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A stable pure hydroxyl layer on Pt{110}-(1x2)

The adsorption of water and coadsorption with oxygen on the missing-row reconstructed Pt{110}-(1x2) surface was studied by using temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Coadsorbed oxygen below saturation (<0.65 +/- 0.05 ML) leads to the formation of 014, which occupies sites near the ridge Pt atoms, In contrast to the more closely packed Pt{111} Surface, OH appears not to form hydrogen bonds with coadsorbed water molecules and is stable after the desorption of water tip to about 205 K (as determined by TPD). Because OH and atomic oxygen compete for adsorption sites, water dissociation is only observed for oxygen coverages below saturation. In the absence of coadsorbed oxygen, water stays intact at all temperatures and forms a strongly bound layer of 2 ML coverage oil the clean Pt{110}-(1x2) surface at temperatures between 140 and 175 K.