Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Synthesis and evaluation of a novel hydrophilic 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine ligand for separating actinide(III) from lanthanide(III)

We report the synthesis and evaluation of a novel hydrophilic 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine (BTBP) ligand containing carboxylate groups as a selective aqueous complexing agent for the minor actinides over lanthanides. The novel ligand is able to complex and separate Am(III) from Eu(III) in alkaline solutions selectively.

Dehydrodipeptide hydrogelators containing naproxen N‑Capped tryptophan: self-assembly, hydrogel characterization, and evaluation as potential drug nanocarriers

In this work, we introduce dipeptides containing tryptophan N-capped with the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug naproxen and C-terminal dehydroamino acids, dehydrophenylalanine (ΔPhe), dehydroaminobutyric acid (ΔAbu), and dehydroalanine (ΔAla) as efficacious protease resistant hydrogelators. Optimized conditions for gel formation are reported. Transmission electron microscopy experiments revealed that the hydrogels consist of networks of micro/nanosized fibers formed by peptide self-assembly. Fluorescence and circular dichroism spectroscopy indicate that the self-assembly process is driven by stacking interactions of the aromatic groups. The naphthalene groups of the naproxen moieties are highly organized in the fibers through chiral stacking. Rheological experiments demonstrated that the most hydrophobic peptide (containing C-terminal ΔPhe) formed more elastic gels at lower critical gelation concentrations. This gel revealed irreversible breakup, while the C-terminal ΔAbu and ΔAla gels, although less elastic, exhibited structural recovery and partial healing of the elastic properties. A potential antitumor thieno[3,2-b]pyridine derivative was incorporated (noncovalently) into the gel formed by the hydrogelator containing C-terminal ΔPhe residue. Fluorescence and Förster resonance energy transfer measurements indicate that the drug is located in a hydrophobic environment, near/associated with the peptide fibers, establishing this type of hydrogel as a good drug-nanocarrier candidate.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.