Meteorological phenomena in Western classical orchestral music

Depictions of the weather are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This article catalogues and analyzes the frequencies with which weather is depicted in a sample of classical orchestral music. The depictions vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. It is found that composers are generally influenced by their own environment in the type of weather they choose to represent. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline

Exploring social barriers to adaptation: insights from Western Nepal

As the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change become increasingly apparent, the need for facilitating successful adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity within the context of sustainable development is clear. With adaptation high on the agenda, the notion of limits and barriers to adaptation has recently received much attention within both academic and policymaking spheres. While emerging literature has been quick to depict limits and barriers in terms of natural, financial, or technologic processes, there is a clear shortfall in acknowledging social barriers to adaptation. It is against such a backdrop that this paper sets out to expose and explore some of the underlying features of social barriers to adaptation, drawing on insights from two case studies in the Western Nepal. This paper exposes the significant role of cognitive, normative and institutional factors in both influencing and prescribing adaptation. It explores how restrictive social environments can limit adaptation actions and influence adaptive capacity at the local level, particularly for the marginalised and socially excluded. The findings suggest a need for greater recognition of the diversity and complexity of social barriers, strategic planning and incorporation at national and local levels, as well as an emphasis on tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability and social exclusion.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

The key role of the western boundary in linking the AMOC strength to the north-south pressure gradient

A key idea in the study of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is that its strength is proportional to the meridional density gradient, or more precisely, to the strength of the meridional pressure gradient. A physical basis that would tell us how to estimate the relevant meridional pressure gradient locally from the density distribution in numerical ocean models to test such an idea, has been lacking however. Recently, studies of ocean energetics have suggested that the AMOC is driven by the release of available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy (KE), and that such a conversion takes place primarily in the deep western boundary currents. In this paper, we develop an analytical description linking the western boundary current circulation below the interface separating the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) to the shape of this interface. The simple analytical model also shows how available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy at each location, and that the strength of the transport within the western boundary current is proportional to the local meridional pressure gradient at low latitudes. The present results suggest, therefore, that the conversion rate of potential energy may provide the necessary physical basis for linking the strength of the AMOC to the meridional pressure gradient, and that this could be achieved by a detailed study of the APE to KE conversion in the western boundary current.

Western Chess: Endgame data

This spreadsheet contains key data about that part of the endgame of Western Chess for which Endgame Tables (EGTs) have been generated by computer. It is derived from the EGT work since 1969 of Thomas Ströhlein, Ken Thompson, Christopher Wirth, Eugene Nalimov, Marc Bourzutschky, John Tamplin and Yakov Konoval. The data includes %s of wins, draws and losses (wtm and btm), the maximum and average depths of win under various metrics (DTC = Depth to Conversion, DTM = Depth to Mate, DTZ = Depth to Conversion or Pawn-push), and examples of positions of maximum depth. It is essentially about sub-7-man Chess but is updated as news comes in of 7-man EGT computations.

Western Chess: Zugzwang data

This data is derived from Eugene Nalimov's Depth-to-Mate Endgame Tables for Western Chess. While having the move is normally advantageous, there are positions where the side-to-move would have a better theoretical result if it were the other side to move. These are (Type A) 'zugzwang' positions where the 'obligation to act' is unwelcome. This data provides lists of all zugzwangs in sub-7-man chess, and summary data about those sets of zugzwangs including exemplar zugzwangs of maximum depth.