Calculating the application criticality and business risk from technology obsolescence

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in three consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving four UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.

On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the North Atlantic oscillation

Intense winter cyclones often lead to hazardous weather over Europe. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and strong European windstorms. However, the robustness of this relation for cyclones of varying intensities remains largely unexplored. In this paper, the bi-directional relation between the NAO and cyclones impacting Europe is analyzed for the period 1950–2010 focusing on the sensitivity to storm intensity. Evidence is given that explosive (EC) and non-explosive cyclones (NoEC) predominantly develop under different large-scale circulation conditions over the North Atlantic. Whereas NoEC evolve more frequently under negative and neutral NAO phases, the number of EC is larger under a positive NAO phase, typically characterized by an intensified jet toward Western Europe. Important differences are also found on the dynamics of NAO evolution after peak intensity for both cyclone populations.

Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photograpy

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

A multipoint study of a substorm occurring on 7 December, 1992, and its theoretical implications

On 7 December 1992, a moderate substorm was observed by a variety of satellites and ground-based instruments. Ionospheric flows were monitored near dusk by the Goose Bay HF radar and near midnight by the EISCAT radar. The observed flows are compared here with magnetometer observations by the IMAGE array in Scandinavia and the two Greenland chains, the auroral distribution observed by Freja and the substorm cycle observations by the SABRE radar, the SAMNET magnetometer array and LANL geosynchronous satellites. Data from Galileo Earth-encounter II are used to estimate the IMF B-z component. The data presented show that the substorm onset electrojet at midnight was confined to closed field lines equatorward of the preexisting convection reversal boundaries observed in the dusk and midnight regions. No evidence of substantial closure of open flux was detected following this substorm onset. Indeed the convection reversal boundary on the duskside continued to expand equatorward after onset due to the continued presence of strong southward IMF, such that growth and expansion phase features were simultaneously present. Clear indications of closure of open flux were not observed until a subsequent substorm intensification 25 min after the initial onset. After this time, the substorm auroral bulge in the nightside hours propagated well poleward of the pre-existing convection reversal boundary, and strong flow perturbations were observed by the Goose Bay radar, indicative of flows driven by reconnection in the tail.

Auroral bright spot sequence near 1400 MLT: Coordinated optical and ion drift observations

Optical observations of a dayside auroral brightening sequence, by means of all-sky TV cameras and meridian scanning photometers, have been combined with EISCAT ion drift observations within the same invariant latitude-MLT sector. The observations were made during a January 1989 campaign by utilizing the high F region ion densities during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The characteristic intermittent optical events, covering ∼300 km in east-west extent, move eastward (antisunward) along the poleward boundary of the persistent background aurora at velocities of ∼1.5 km s−1 and are associated with ion flows which swing from eastward to westward, with a subsequent return to eastward, during the interval of a few minutes when there is enhanced auroral emission within the radar field of view. The breakup of discrete auroral forms occurs at the reversal (negative potential) that forms between eastward plasma flow, maximizing near the persistent arc poleward boundary, and strong transient westward flow to the south. The reported events, covering a 35 min interval around 1400 MLT, are embedded within a longer period of similar auroral activity between 0830 (1200 MLT) and 1300 UT (1600 MLT). These observations are discussed in relation to recent models of boundary layer plasma dynamics and the associated magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. The ionospheric events may correspond to large-scale wave like motions of the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL)/plasma sheet (PS) boundary. On the basis of this interpretation the observed spot size, speed and repetition period (∼10 min) give a wavelength (the distance between spots) of ∼900 km in the present case. The events can also be explained as ionospheric signatures of newly opened flux tubes associated with reconnection bursts at the magnetopause near 1400 MLT. We also discuss these data in relation to random, patchy reconnection (as has recently been invoked to explain the presence of the sheathlike plasma on closed field lines in the LLBL). In view of the lack of IMF data, and the existing uncertainty on the location of the open-closed field line boundary relative to the optical events, an unambiguous discrimination between the different alternatives is not easily obtained.

Evaluation of water properties in HEA–HEMA hydrogels swollen in aqueous-PEG solutions using thermoanalytical techniques

Hydrogels are polymeric materials used in many pharmaceutical and biomedical applications due to their ability to form 3D hydrophilic polymeric networks, which can absorb large amounts of water. In the present work, polyethylene glycols (PEG) were introduced into the hydrogel liquid phase in order to improve the mechanical properties of hydrogels composed of 2-hydroxyethylacrylate and 2-hydroxyethylmethacrylate (HEA–HEMA) synthesized with different co-monomer compositions and equilibrated in water or in 20 % water–PEG 400 and 600 solutions. The thermoanalytical techniques [differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG)] were used to evaluate the amount and properties of free and bound water in HEA–HEMA hydrogels. The internal structure and the mechanical properties of hydrogels were studied using scanning electron microscopy and friability assay. TG “loss-on-drying” experiments were applied to study the water-retention properties of hydrogels, whereas the combination of TG and DSC allowed estimating the total amount of freezable and non-freezing water in hydrogels. The results show that the addition of viscous co-solvent (PEG) to the liquid medium results in significant improvement of the mechanical properties of HEA–HEMA hydrogels and also slightly retards the water loss from the hydrogels. A redistribution of free and bound water in the hydrogels equilibrated in mixed solutions containing 20 vol% of PEGs takes place.

Anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in structure-forming ferrofluids

The magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with change in magnetic field strength, and the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with orientation of magnetic field, have been a focus of interest since four decades. A satisfactory understanding of the microscopic origin of anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in magnetic fluids is still a matter of debate and a field of intense research. Here, we present an extensive simulation study to understand the relation between the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect and the underlying change in micro-structures of ferrofluids. Our results indicate that field-induced chain-like structures respond very differently depending on their orientation relative to the direction of an externally applied shear flow, which leads to a pronounced anisotropy of viscosity. In this work, we focus on three exemplary values of dipolar interaction strengths which correspond to weak, intermediate and strong interactions between dipolar colloidal particles. We compare our simulation results with an experimental study on cobalt-based ferrofluids as well as with an existing theoretical model called the chain model. A non-monotonic behaviour in the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect is observed with increasing dipolar interaction strength and is explained in terms of micro-structure formation.

Children’s physic: medical perceptions and treatment of sick children in early modern England, c. 1580-1720

Historians of medicine, childhood, and paediatrics, have often assumed that early modern doctors neither treated children, nor adapted their medicines to suit the peculiar temperaments of the young. Through an examination of medical textbooks and doctors’ casebooks, this article refutes these assumptions. It argues that medical authors and practising doctors regularly treated children, and were careful to tailor their remedies to complement the distinctive constitutions of children. Thus, this article proposes that a concept of ‘children’s physic’ existed in early modern England: this term refers to the notion that children were physiologically distinct, requiring special medical care. Children’s physic was rooted in the ancient traditions of Hippocratic and Galenic medicine: it was the child’s humoral makeup that underpinned all medical ideas about children’s bodies, minds, diseases, and treatments. Children abounded in the humour blood, which made them humid and weak, and in need of medicines of a particularly gentle nature.

Designing a sampling scheme to reveal correlations between weeds and soil properties at multiple spatial scales

Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at different scales, the strength of the relationships between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We have developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to explore scale-dependent relationships between weeds and soil properties. We have validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using REML, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales we optimized the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

Linking classroom learning and research to advance ideas about social-ecological resilience

There is an increasing demand in higher education institutions for training in complex environmental problems. Such training requires a careful mix of conventional methods and innovative solutions, a task not always easy to accomplish. In this paper we review literature on this theme, highlight relevant advances in the pedagogical literature, and report on some examples resulting from our recent efforts to teach complex environmental issues. The examples range from full credit courses in sustainable development and research methods to project-based and in-class activity units. A consensus from the literature is that lectures are not sufficient to fully engage students in these issues. A conclusion from the review of examples is that problem-based and project-based, e.g., through case studies, experiential learning opportunities, or real-world applications, learning offers much promise. This could greatly be facilitated by online hubs through which teachers, students, and other members of the practitioner and academic community share experiences in teaching and research, the way that we have done here.

An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Nonlinear Dynamics

It is for mally proved that the general smoother for nonlinear dynamics can be for mulated as a sequential method, that is, obser vations can be assimilated sequentially during a for ward integration. The general filter can be derived from the smoother and it is shown that the general smoother and filter solutions at the final time become identical, as is expected from linear theor y. Then, a new smoother algorithm based on ensemble statistics is presented and examined in an example with the Lorenz equations. The new smoother can be computed as a sequential algorithm using only for ward-in-time model integrations. It bears a strong resemblance with the ensemble Kalman filter . The difference is that ever y time a new dataset is available during the for ward integration, an analysis is computed for all previous times up to this time. Thus, the first guess for the smoother is the ensemble Kalman filter solution, and the smoother estimate provides an improvement of this, as one would expect a smoother to do. The method is demonstrated in this paper in an intercomparison with the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble smoother introduced by van Leeuwen and Evensen, and it is shown to be superior in an application with the Lorenz equations. Finally , a discussion is given regarding the properties of the analysis schemes when strongly non-Gaussian distributions are used. It is shown that in these cases more sophisticated analysis schemes based on Bayesian statistics must be used.

Dystrophin abnormalities in polymyositis and dermatomyositis.

The expression of dystrophin in muscle biopsies from nine cases of polymyositis, ten cases of juvenile dermatomyositis and three adults with dermatomyositis was studied by Western blot analysis and immunocytochemistry. Five antibodies corresponding to different N- and C-terminal regions of the dystrophin gene were used. Sixteen of the 22 cases (73%) showed an abnormality in the expression of dystrophin on Western blot analysis, either with a reduced molecular weight protein or a reduced amount. Immunostaining was abnormal in 11 out of 19 cases (58%) and showed varying degrees of discontinuity or loss of sarcolemmal staining. Immunolabelling of these areas with antibodies to beta-spectrin was normal implying that the changes were not caused by a loss of the sarcolemma. These results show that secondary changes in the expression of dystrophin can occur in the absence of an abnormality in the corresponding gene and that dystrophin cannot be used in isolation as a diagnostic marker for muscular dystrophy.

Characterisation of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Dystrophin, the product of the Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) gene, was studied in muscle from 16 human fetuses at risk for the disease. Eleven high risk (greater than 95% probability) and 5 low-risk (less than 25% probability) fetuses were studied with antibodies raised to different regions of the protein. All low-risk fetuses showed a similar pattern to that of normal fetuses of a comparable age: using Western blot analysis, a protein was detected of similar size and abundance to that of normal fetuses (i.e. smaller molecular weight than that of adult muscle); immunocytochemistry showed uniform sarcolemmal staining in fetuses older than 18 weeks gestation and differential staining of myotubes at different stages of development (distinguished by size) in younger fetuses (less than 15 weeks gestation). In contrast, Western blot analysis of high-risk fetuses detected low levels of dystrophin in 4 cases; 7 fetuses had no detectable protein. Immunocytochemistry with some dystrophin antibodies showed weak staining of the sarcolemma and around central nuclei in younger fetuses; in older fetuses there was little sarcolemmal staining with any antibody other than occasional positive fibres. These results indicate that careful study of dystrophin in fetuses at risk for DMD can be used to establish the clinical phenotype and provide additional information for future family counselling.