Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices

Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

On-line prediction of cheese making using backscatter of near infrared indices light

The potential of a fibre optic sensor, detecting light backscatter in a cheese vat during coagulation and syneresis, to predict curd moisture, fat loses and curd yield was examined. Temperature, cutting time and calcium levels were varied to assess the strength of the predictions over a range of processing conditions. Equations were developed using a combination of independent variables, milk compositional and light backscatter parameters. Fat losses, curd yield and curd moisture content were predicted with a standard error of prediction (SEP) of +/- 2.65 g 100 g(-1) (R-2 = 0.93), +/- 0.95% (R-2 = 0.90) and +/- 1.43% (R-2 = 0.94), respectively. These results were used to develop a model for predicting curd moisture as a function of time during syneresis (SEP = +/- 1.72%; R-2 = 0.95). By monitoring coagulation and syneresis, this sensor technology could be employed to control curd moisture content, thereby improving process control during cheese manufacture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Influence of curd cutting programme and stirring speed on the prediction of syneresis indices in cheese-making using NIR light backscatter

An NIR reflectance sensor, with a large field of view and a fibre-optic connection to a spectrometer for measuring light backscatter at 980 nm, was used to monitor the syneresis process online during cheese-making with the goal of predicting syneresis indices (curd moisture content, yield of whey and fat losses to whey) over a range of curd cutting programmes and stirring speeds. A series of trials were carried out in an 11 L cheese vat using recombined whole milk. A factorial experimental design consisting of three curd stirring speeds and three cutting programmes, was undertaken. Milk was coagulated under constant conditions and the casein gel was cut when the elastic modulus reached 35 Pa. Among the syneresis indices investigated, the most accurate and most parsimonious multivariate model developed was for predicting yield of whey involving three terms, namely light backscatter, milk fat content and cutting intensity (R2 = 0.83, SEy = 6.13 g/100 g), while the best simple model also predicted this syneresis index using the light backscatter alone (R2 = 0.80, SEy = 6.53 g/100 g). In this model the main predictor was the light backscatter response from the NIR light back scatter sensor. The sensor also predicted curd moisture with a similar accuracy.

Antioxidant enzymes, inflammatory indices and lifestyle factors in older men: a cohort analysis

We examined the relationship between blood antioxidant enzyme activities, indices of inflammatory status and a number of lifestyle factors in the Caerphilly prospective cohort study of ischaemic heart disease. The study began in 1979 and is based on a representative male population sample. Initially 2512 men were seen in phase I, and followed-up every 5 years in phases II and III; they have recently been seen in phase IV. Data on social class, smoking habit, alcohol consumption were obtained by questionnaire, and body mass index was measured. Antioxidant enzyme activities and indices of inflammatory status were estimated by standard techniques. Significant associations were observed for: age with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001); smoking habit with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001) and with glutathione peroxidose (GPX) (p<0.0001); social class with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin both protein (p<0.001) and oxidase (p<0.01) and with GPX (p<0.0001); body mass index with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin protein (p<0.001). There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and any of the blood enzymes measured. Factor analysis produced a three-factor model (explaining 65.9% of the variation in the data set) which appeared to indicate close inter-relationships among antioxidants.

Biotic carbon feedbacks in a materially-closed soil-vegetation-atmosphere system

The magnitude and direction of the coupled feedbacks between the biotic and abiotic components of the terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of uncertainty in coupled climate–carbon-cycle models1, 2, 3. Materially closed, energetically open biological systems continuously and simultaneously allow the two-way feedback loop between the biotic and abiotic components to take place4, 5, 6, 7, but so far have not been used to their full potential in ecological research, owing to the challenge of achieving sustainable model systems6, 7. We show that using materially closed soil–vegetation–atmosphere systems with pro rata carbon amounts for the main terrestrial carbon pools enables the establishment of conditions that balance plant carbon assimilation, and autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration fluxes over periods suitable to investigate short-term biotic carbon feedbacks. Using this approach, we tested an alternative way of assessing the impact of increased CO2 and temperature on biotic carbon feedbacks. The results show that without nutrient and water limitations, the short-term biotic responses could potentially buffer a temperature increase of 2.3 °C without significant positive feedbacks to atmospheric CO2. We argue that such closed-system research represents an important test-bed platform for model validation and parameterization of plant and soil biotic responses to environmental changes.

Early–Middle Holocene vegetation history, climate change and human activities at Lago Riane (Ligurian Apennines, NW Italy)

The radiocarbon-dated palaeoecological study of Lago Riane (Ligurian Apennines, NW Italy) presented here forms part of a wider investigation into the relationships between Holocene vegetation succession, climate change and human activities in the northern Apennines. The record of vegetation history from Lago Riane indicates that, since the end of the last glaciation, climate change and prehistoric human activities, combined with several local factors, have strongly influenced the pattern and timing of natural vegetation succession. The pollen record indicates an important change in vegetation cover at Lago Riane at ~8500–8200 cal. years b.p., coincident with a well-known period of rapid climate change. At ~6100 cal. years b.p., Fagus woodland colonised Lago Riane during a period of climate change and expansion of Late Neolithic human activities in the upland zone of Liguria. A marked decline in Abies woodland, and the expansion of Fagus woodland, at ~4700 cal. years b.p., coincided with further archaeological evidence for pastoralism in the mountains of Liguria during the Copper Age. At ~3900–3600 cal. years b.p. (Early to Middle Bronze Age transition), a temporary expansion of woodland at Lago Riane has been provisionally attributed to a decline in human pressure on the environment during a period of short-term climate change

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Vegetation and environmental dynamics in the southern Black Sea region since 18 kyr BP derived from the marine core 22-GC3

Sediments from the Black Sea, a region historically dominated by forests and steppe landscapes, are a valuable source of detailed information on the changes in regional terrestrial and aquatic environments at decadal to millennial scales. Here we present multi-proxy environmental records (pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, Ca, Ti and oxygen isotope data) from the uppermost 305 cm of the core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N, 36°29.55′E) collected from a water depth of 838 m in the southern part of the Black Sea in 2007. The records span the last ~ 18 kyr (all ages are given in cal kyr BP). The pollen data reveal the dominance of the Artemisia-steppe in the region, suggesting rather dry/cold environments ~ 18–14.5 kyr BP. Warming/humidity increase during melt-water pulses (~ 16.1–14.5 kyr BP), indicated by δ18O records from the 22-GC3 core sediment and from the Sofular Cave stalagmite, is expressed in more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave, usually interpreted as the spreading of C3 plants. The records representing the interstadial complex (~ 14.5–12.9 kyr BP) show an increase in temperature and moisture, indicated by forest development, increased primary productivity and reduced surface run-off, whereas the switch from primary terrigenous to primary authigenic Ca origin occurs ~ 500 yr later. The Younger Dryas cooling is clearly demonstrated by more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave and a reduction of pines. The early Holocene (11.7–8.5 kyr BP) interval reveals relatively dry conditions compared to the mostly moist and warm middle Holocene (8.5–5 kyr BP), which is characterized by the establishment of the species-rich warm mixed and temperate deciduous forests in the low elevation belt, temperate deciduous beech-hornbeam forests in the middle and cool conifer forest in upper mountain belt. The border between the early and middle Holocene in the vegetation records coincides with the opening of the Mediterranean corridor at ~ 8.3 kyr BP, as indicated by a marked change in the dinocyst assemblages and in the sediment lithology. Changes in the pollen assemblages indicate a reduction in forest cover after ~ 5 kyr BP, which was likely caused by increased anthropogenic pressure on the regional vegetation.

How vegetation impacts affect climate metrics for ozone precursors

We examine the effect of ozone damage to vegetation as caused by anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species and quantify it in terms of its impact on terrestrial carbon stores. A simple climate model is then used to assess the expected changes in global surface temperature from the resulting perturbations to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone. The concept of global temperature change potential (GTP) metric, which relates the global average surface temperature change induced by the pulse emission of a species to that induced by a unit mass of carbon dioxide, is used to characterize the impact of changes in emissions of ozone precursors on surface temperature as a function of time. For NOx emissions, the longer-timescale methane perturbation is of the opposite sign to the perturbations in ozone and carbon dioxide, so NOx emissions are warming in the short term, but cooling in the long term. For volatile organic compound (VOC), CO, and methane emissions, all the terms are warming for an increase in emissions. The GTPs for the 20 year time horizon are strong functions of emission location, with a large component of the variability owing to the different vegetation responses on different continents. At this time horizon, the induced change in the carbon cycle is the largest single contributor to the GTP metric for NOx and VOC emissions. For NOx emissions, we estimate a GTP20 of −9 (cooling) to +24 (warming) depending on assumptions of the sensitivity of vegetation types to ozone damage.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models.

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and 5 height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, 10 and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a “random” model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global 15 vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the interannual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified 20 several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change 25 impacts and feedbacks.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.