The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

Experiences with sustainability indicators and stakeholder participation: A case study relating to a 'Blue Plan' project in Malta

The practical application of systemic sustainability analysis (SSA; Bell and Morse, 1999) as applied in-a project instigated and managed by 'Blue Plan', one of the regional activity centres of the Mediterranean Action Plan, is set out and explained in this paper. The context in which SSA was applied and adapted to SPSA (systemic and prospective sustainability analysis). is described in the Mediterranean, primarily in Malta. The SSA process is summarized, its extension and linkage to the prospective approach is described and the comments of stakeholders in the context are added. Some preliminary outcomes are suggested. The pauticular focus of the paper is on the lessons learned from doing SSA/SPSA within a classic blueprint project framework. It is-not assumed that SSA/SPSA is 'finished' or 'definitive'. Rather, we suggest that it is a developing and changing approach that practitioners can adapt and change to meet the specific needs of the circumstances that confront them. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Atmospheric processes and observations

The central role of the atmosphere in abrupt climate change is proposed and discussed. This discussion is given in the context of the poleward transport of energy in the climate system and of climate variability and change. A number of examples based on observational and model data are used to illustrate the ideas.

Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Numerous factors are associated with poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, including climate variability. Rainfall, and climate more generally, are implicated directly in the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, and reduce child mortality and incidence of diseases such as malaria by the target date of 2015. But, Africa is not currently on target to meet these goals. We pose a number of questions from a climate science perspective aimed at understanding this background: Is there a common origin to factors that currently constrain climate science? Why is it that in a continent where human activity is so closely linked to interannual rainfall variability has climate science received little of the benefit that saw commercialization driving meteorology in the developed world? What might be suggested as an effective way for the continent to approach future climate variability and change? We make the case that a route to addressing the challenges of climate change in Africa rests with the improved management of climate variability. We start by discussing the constraints on climate science and how they might be overcome. We explain why the optimal management of activities directly influenced by interannual climate variability (which include the development of scientific capacity) has the potential to serve as a forerunner to engagement in the wider issue of climate change. We show this both from the perspective of the climate system and the institutions that engage with climate issues. We end with a thought experiment that tests the benefits of linking climate variability and climate change in the setting of smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

The role of the sponsor in business change

Successful business change programmes require a holistic approach covering processes, people, information and technology. Yet many current IT-related initiatives rely heavily on a systems development lifecycle and too early use of structured project management methodologies. This is exacerbated by limited or unclear definitions of what constitutes success. The IT-enabled business change lifecycle has been developed as an antidote to this narrow view. It stresses the importance of alignment in fuzzy situations with a continued focus on benefits management throughout the lifecycle. This paper reports on business change in large enterprises describing the results of an exemplar case study using the IT-enabled change lifecycle. There are different challenges at each stage of the lifecycle with implications for the skills needed. The paper considers these stages from the perspective of the sponsor, a role which is often misunderstood, and assesses what is required for successful stewardship and leadership of change. It concludes with practical recommendations for sharing learning on success and failure throughout the enterprise.

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Genetic structure and systematic relationships within the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate (Orchidaceae: Orchidinae): high diversity in Kent and a wind-induced discontinuity bisecting the Adriatic

A recent phylogenetic study based on multiple datasets is used as the framework for a more detailed examination of one of the ten molecularly circumscribed groups identified, the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate. The group is highly morphologically variable, prone to phenotypic convergence, shows low levels of sequence divergence and contains an unusually large proportion of threatened taxa, including the rarest Ophrys species in the UK. The aims of this study were to (a) circumscribe minimum resolvable genetically distinct entities within the O. fuciflora aggregate, and (b) assess the likelihood of gene flow between genetically and geographically distinct entities at the species and population levels. Fifty-five accessions sampled in Europe and Asia Minor from the O. fuciflora aggregate were studied using the AFLP genetic fingerprinting technique to evaluate levels of infraspecific and interspecific genetic variation and to assess genetic relationships between UK populations of O. fuciflora s.s. in Kent and in their continental European and Mediterranean counterparts. The two genetically and geographically distinct groups recovered, one located in England and central Europe and one in south-eastern Europe, are incongruent with current species delimitation within the aggregate as a whole and also within O. fuciflora s.s. Genetic diversity is higher in Kent than in the rest of western and central Europe. Gene flow is more likely to occur between populations in closer geographical proximity than those that are morphologically more similar. Little if any gene flow occurs between populations located in the south-eastern Mediterranean and those dispersed throughout the remainder of the distribution, revealing a genetic discontinuity that runs north-south through the Adriatic. This discontinuity is also evident in other clades of Ophrys and is tentatively attributed to the long-term influence of prevailing winds on the long-distance distribution of pollinia and especially seeds. A cline of gene flow connects populations from Kent and central and southern Europe; these individuals should therefore be considered part of an extensive meta-population. Gene flow is also evident among populations from Kent, which appear to constitute a single metapopulation. They show some evidence of hybridization, and possibly also introgression, with O. apifera.

Environmental variation at the onset of independent foraging affects full-grown body mass in the red fox

The period following the withdrawal of parental care has been highlighted as a key developmental period for juveniles. One reason for this is that juveniles cannot forage as competently as adults, potentially placing them at greater risk from environmentally-induced changes in food availability. However, no study has examined this topic. Using a long-term dataset on red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), we examined (i) dietary changes that occurred in the one-month period following the attainment of nutritional independence, (ii) diet composition in relation to climatic variation, and (iii) the effect of climatic variation on subsequent full-grown mass. Diet at nutritional independence contained increased quantities of easy-to-catch food items (earthworms and insects) when compared with pre-independence. Interannual variation in the volume of rainfall at nutritional independence was positively correlated to the proportion of earthworms in cub diet. Pre-independence cub mass and rainfall immediately following nutritional independence explained a significant proportion of variance in full-grown mass, with environmental variation affecting full-grown mass of the entire cohorts. Thus, weather-mediated availability of easy-to-catch food items at a key developmental stage has lifelong implications for the development of juvenile foxes by affecting full-grown mass, which in turn appears to be an important component of individual reproductive potential.

Genotypic and phenotypic diversity of a baculovirus population within an individual insect host

It is becoming increasingly apparent that many pathogen populations, including those of insects, show high levels of genotypic variation. Baculoviruses are known to be highly variable, with isolates collected from the same species in different geographical locations frequently showing genetic variation and differences in their biology. More recent Studies at smaller scales have also shown that virus DNA profiles from individual larvae can show polymorphisms within and between populations of the same species. Here, we investigate the genotypic and phenotypic variation of an insect baculovirus infection within a single insect host. Twenty four genotypically distinct nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) variants were isolated from an individual pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, caterpillar by in vivo cloning techniques. No variant appeared to be dominant in the population. The Pafl NPV variants have been mapped using three restriction endonucleases and shown to contain three hypervariable regions containing insertions of 70-750 bp. Comparison of seven of these variants in an alternative host, Mamestra brassicae, demonstrated that the variants differed significantly in both pathogenicity and speed of kill. The generation and maintenance of pathogen heterogeneity are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Change in construction: a critical perspective

Change within the construction sector has been a central concern of governments and a select few private-sector clients for a considerable time. The discourse of change emanating from organizations concerned with reform in the construction sector reflects these ongoing concerns for change in the sector. The underlying assumptions of the content of change and appropriate change mechanisms in the UK are critically examined and challenged. In particular, the limitations of measurement and best practice are explored. The allegiance to approaches based on measurement and best practice is acontextual, unreflective and insufficient in providing wholly reliable explanations for the relationship between practice and performance. Claims for the use of measurement and best practice by the reform movement must therefore be understood to have limitations and their use approached with caution. The emphasis on best practice is also understood to direct attention away from understanding the legitimacy of current practice and change within the UK construction sector. An agenda for change in the UK construction sector will need to engage with and be more reflective of current managerial practice and past change initiatives. Contextual approaches such as structuration theory offer a way in which to underpin a research framework that could support the reform movement in setting such an agenda.

Impedance mismatch: some differences between the way humans and robots control interaction forces

In over forty years of research robots have made very little progress still largely confined to industrial manufacture and cute toys, yet in the same period computing has followed Moores Law where the capacity double roughly every two years. So why is there no Moores Law for robots? Two areas stand out as worthy of research to speedup progress. The first is to get a greater understanding of how human and animal brains control movement, the second to build a new generation of robots that have greater haptic sense, that is a better ability to adapt to the environment as it is encountered. A remarkable property of the cognitive-motor system in humans and animals is that it is slow. Recognising an object may take 250 mS, a reaction time of 150 mS is considered fast. Yet despite this slow system we are well designed to allow contact with the world in a variety of ways. We can anticipate an encounter, use the change of force as a means of communication and ignore sensory cues when they are not relevant. A better understanding of these process has allowed us to build haptic interfaces to mimic the interaction. Emerging from this understanding are new ways to control the contact between robots, the user and the environment. Rehabilitation robotics has all the elements in the subject to not only enable and change the lives of people with disabilities, but also to facilitate revolution change in classic robotics.