Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region

In this study, 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are used for the description of the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. To complement results based on the analysis of monthly mean horizontal wind speeds, an occurrence-based jet climatology is constructed by identifying the locations of the jet axes at 6-hourly intervals throughout 1958–2001. Thus, a dataset describing the highly transient and localized features of jet variability is obtained. During winter and summer the westerly jet is located, respectively, to the south and north of the Tibetan Plateau. During the spring and autumn seasons there are jet transitions from south to north and vice versa. The median dates for these transitions are 28 April and 12 October. The spring transition is associated with large interannual variations, while the fall transition occurs more reliably within a 3-week period. The strength of the jet exhibits a peculiar seasonal cycle. During northward migration in April/May, the jet intensity weakens and its latitudinal position varies largely. In some springs, there are several transitions and split configurations occur before the jet settles in its northern summer position. In June, a well-defined and unusually strong jet reappears at the northern flanks of the Tibetan Plateau. In autumn, the jet gradually but reliably recedes to the south and is typically more intense than in spring. The jet transitions between the two preferred locations follow the seasonal latitudinal migration of the jet in the Northern Hemisphere. An analysis of interannual variations shows the statistical relationship between the strength of the summer jet, the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, and the all-India rainfall series. Both this analysis and results from previous studies point to the particular dynamical relevance of the onsetting Indian summer monsoon precipitation and the associated diabatic heating for the formation of the strong summer jet. Finally, an example is provided that illustrates the climatological significance of the jet in terms of the covariation between the jet location and the spatial precipitation distribution in central Asia.

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.

Seasonal temperature variability of the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman Warm Period (2500–1600 BP) reconstructed from oxygen isotope ratios of limpet shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

Seasonal sea-surface temperaturevariability for the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman WarmPeriod (RWP; 2500–1600 BP), which correspond to the Bronze and Iron Ages, respectively, was estimated using oxygen isotope ratios obtained from high-resolution samples micromilled from radiocarbon-dated, archaeological limpet (Patella vulgata) shells. The coldest winter months recorded in Neoglacial shells averaged 6.6 ± 0.3 °C, and the warmest summer months averaged 14.7 ± 0.4 °C. One Neoglacial shell captured a year without a summer, which may have resulted from a dust veil from a volcanic eruption in the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. RWP shells record average winter and summer monthly temperatures of 6.3 ± 0.1 °C and 13.3 ± 0.3 °C, respectively. These results capture a cooling transition from the Neoglacial to RWP, which is further supported by earlier studies of pine history in Scotland, pollen type analyses in northeast Scotland, and European glacial events. The cooling transition observed at the boundary between the Neoglacial and RWP in our study also agrees with the abrupt climate deterioration at 2800–2700 BP (also referred to as the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition) and therefore may have been driven by decreased solar radiation and weakened North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.

Model studies of the interannual variability of the northern-hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation: the role of the quasi-biennial oscillation

A series of experiments are described that examine the sensitivity of the northern-hemisphere winter evolution to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The prime tool for the experiments is a stratosphere-mesosphere model. The model is integrated over many years with the modelled equatorial winds relaxed towards observed values in order to simulate a realistic QBO. In experiment A the equatorial winds are relaxed towards Singapore radiosonde observations in the height region 16-32 km. In contrast to previous modelling studies, the Holton-Tan relationship (warm/cold winters associated with easterly/westerly QBO winds in the lower stratosphere) is absent. However, in a second experiment (run B) in which the equatorial winds are relaxed towards rocketsonde data over the extended height range 16-58 km, a realistic Holton-Tan relationship is reproduced. A series of further studies are described that explore in more detail the sensitivity to various equatorial height regions and to the bottom-boundary forcing. The experiments suggest that the evolution of the northern-hemisphere winter circulation is sensitive to equatorial winds throughout the whole depth of the stratosphere and not just to the lower-stratospheric wind direction as previously assumed.

Absolute high spectral resolution measurements of surface solar radiation for detection of water vapour continuum absorption

Solar-pointing Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy offers the capability to measure both the fine scale and broadband spectral structure of atmospheric transmission simultaneously across wide spectral regions. It is therefore suited to the study of both water vapour monomer and continuum absorption behaviours. However, in order to properly address this issue, it is necessary to radiatively calibrate the FTIR instrument response. A solar-pointing high-resolution FTIR spectrometer was deployed as part of the ‘Continuum Absorption by Visible and Infrared radiation and its Atmospheric Relevance’ (CAVIAR) consortium project. This paper describes the radiative calibration process using an ultra-high-temperature blackbody and the consideration of the related influence factors. The result is a radiatively calibrated measurement of the solar irradiation at the ground across the IR region from 2000 to 10 000 cm−1 with an uncertainty of between 3.3 and 5.9 per cent. This measurement is shown to be in good general agreement with a radiative-transfer model. The results from the CAVIAR field measurements are being used in ongoing studies of atmospheric absorbers, in particular the water vapour continuum.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimate Method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany

A physically based gust parameterisation is added to the atmospheric mesoscale model FOOT3DK to estimate wind gusts associated with storms over West Germany. The gust parameterisation follows the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) method and its functionality is verified in this study. The method assumes that gusts occurring at the surface are induced by turbulent eddies in the planetary boundary layer, deflecting air parcels from higher levels down to the surface under suitable conditions. Model simulations are performed with horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 5 km. Ten historical storm events of different characteristics and intensities are chosen in order to include a wide range of typical storms affecting Central Europe. All simulated storms occurred between 1990 and 1998. The accuracy of the method is assessed objectively by validating the simulated wind gusts against data from 16 synoptic stations by means of “quality parameters”. Concerning these parameters, the temporal and spatial evolution of the simulated gusts is well reproduced. Simulated values for low altitude stations agree particularly well with the measured gusts. For orographically exposed locations, the gust speeds are partly underestimated. The absolute maximum gusts lie in most cases within the bounding interval given by the WGE method. Focussing on individual storms, the performance of the method is better for intense and large storms than for weaker ones. Particularly for weaker storms, the gusts are typically overestimated. The results for the sample of ten storms document that the method is generally applicable with the mesoscale model FOOT3DK for mid-latitude winter storms, even in areas with complex orography.

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

The importance of surface pressure changes in the response of the atmosphere to zonally-symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing

he classical problem of the response of a balanced, axisymmetric vortex to thermal and mechanical forcing is re-examined, paying special attention to the lower boundary condition. The correct condition is DΦ/Dt = 0, where Φ is the geopotential and D/Dt the material derivative, which explicitly accounts for a mass redistribution as part of the mean-flow response. This redistribution is neglected when using the boundary condition Dp/Dt = 0, which has conventionally been applied in this problem. It is shown that applying the incorrect boundary condition, and thereby ignoring the surface pressure change, leads to a zonal wind acceleration δū/δt that is too strong, especially near the surface. The effect is significant for planetary-scale forcing even when applied at tropopause level. A comparison is made between the mean-flow evolution in a baroclinic life-cycle, as simulated in a fully nonlinear, primitive-equation model, and that predicted by using the simulated eddy fluxes in the zonally-symmetric response problem. Use of the correct lower boundary condition is shown to lead to improved agreement.

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.

Observations of diurnal and spatial variability of radiative forcing by equatorial deep convective clouds

From geostationary satellite observations of equatorial Africa and the equatorial east Atlantic during May and June 2000 we explore the radiative forcing by deep convective cloud systems in these regions. Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are associated with a mean radiative forcing relative to non–deep convective areas of −39 W m−2 over the Atlantic Ocean and of +13 W m−2 over equatorial Africa (±10 W m−2 in both cases). We show that over land the timing of the daily cycle of convection relative to the daily cycle in solar illumination and surface temperature significantly affects the mean radiative forcing by DCCs. Displacement of the daily cycle of DCC coverage by 2 hours changes their overall radiative effect by ∼10 W m−2, with implications for the simulation of the radiative balance in this region. The timing of the minimum DCC cover over land, close to noon local time, means that the mean radiative forcing is nearly maximized.

Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate

The summertime variability of the extratropical storm track over the Atlantic sector and its links to European climate have been analysed for the period 1948–2011 using observations and reanalyses. The main results are as follows. (1) The dominant mode of the summer storm track density variability is characterized by a meridional shift of the storm track between two distinct paths and is related to a bimodal distribution in the climatology for this region. It is also closely related to the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). (2) A southward shift is associated with a downstream extension of the storm track and a decrease in blocking frequency over the UK and northwestern Europe. (3) The southward shift is associated with enhanced precipitation over the UK and northwestern Europe and decreased precipitation over southern Europe (contrary to the behaviour in winter). (4) There are strong ocean–atmosphere interactions related to the dominant mode of storm track variability. The atmosphere forces the ocean through anomalous surface fluxes and Ekman currents, but there is also some evidence consistent with an ocean influence on the atmosphere, and that coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks might play a role. The ocean influence on the atmosphere may be particularly important on decadal timescales, related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

Dawn-dusk asymmetry in particles of solar wind origin within the magnetosphere

Solar wind/magnetosheath plasma in the magnetosphere can be identified using a component that has a higher charge state, lower density and, at least soon after their entry into the magnetosphere, lower energy than plasma from a terrestrial source. We survey here observations taken over 3 years of He2+ ions made by the Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor (MICS) of the Charge and Mass Mgnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (CAMMICE) instrument aboard POLAR. The occurrence probability of these solar wind ions is then plotted as a function of Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and invariant latitude (3) for various energy ranges. For all energies observed by MICS (1.8–21.4 keV) and all solar wind conditions, the occurrence probabilities peaked around the cusp region and along the dawn flank. The solar wind conditions were filtered to see if this dawnward asymmetry is controlled by the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect (and so depends on the BY component of the interplanetary magnetic field, IMF) or by Fermi acceleration of He2+ at the bow shock (and so depends on the IMF ratio BX/BY ). It is shown that the asymmetry remained persistently on the dawn flank, suggesting it was not due to effects associated with direct entry into the magnetosphere. This asymmetry, with enhanced fluxes on the dawn flank, persisted for lower energy ions (below a “cross-over” energy of about 23 keV) but reversed sense to give higher fluxes on the dusk flank at higher energies. This can be explained by the competing effects of gradient/curvature drifts and the convection electric field on ions that are convecting sunward on re-closed field lines. The lower-energy He2+ ions E × B drift dawnwards as they move earthward, whereas the higher energy ions curvature/gradient drift towards dusk. The convection electric field in the tail is weaker for northward IMF. Ions then need less energy to drift to the dusk flank, so that the cross-over energy, at which the asymmetry changes sense, is reduced.