Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit

Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.

Co3(SO4)3(OH)2[enH2]: a newS= 3/2 Kagome-type layered sulfate with a unique connectivity

The Kagome lattice, comprising a two-dimensional array of corner-sharing equilateral triangles, is central to the exploration of magnetic frustration. In such a lattice, antiferromagnetic coupling between ions in triangular plaquettes prevents all of the exchange interactions being simultaneously satisfied and a variety of novel magnetic ground states may result at low temperature. Experimental realization of a Kagome lattice remains difficult. The jarosite family of materials of nominal composition AM3(SO4)2(OH)6 (A = monovalent cation; M= Fe3+, Cr3+), offers perhaps one of the most promising manifestations of the phenomenon of magnetic frustration in two dimensions. The magnetic properties of jarosites are however extremely sensitive to the degree of coverage of magnetic sites. Consequently, there is considerable interest in the use of soft chemical techniques for the design and synthesis of novel materials in which to explore the effects of spin, degree of site coverage and connectivity on magnetic frustration.

Pediastrum species as potential indicators of lake-level change in tropical South America

We explored the potential for using Pediastrum (Meyen), a genus of green alga commonly found in palaeoecological studies, as a proxy for lake-level change in tropical South America. The study site, Laguna La Gaiba (LLG) (17°45′S, 57°40′W), is a broad, shallow lake located along the course of the Paraguay River in the Pantanal, a 135,000-km2 tropical wetland located mostly in western Brazil, but extending into eastern Bolivia. Fourteen surface sediment samples were taken from LLG across a range of lake depths (2-5.2 m) and analyzed for Pediastrum. We found seven species, of which P. musteri (Tell et Mataloni), P. argentiniense (Bourr. et Tell), and P. cf. angulosum (Ehrenb.) ex Menegh. were identified as potential indicators of lake level. Results of the modern dataset were applied to 31 fossil Pediastrum assemblages spanning the early Holocene (12.0 kyr BP) to present to infer past lake level changes qualitatively. Early Holocene (12.0-9.8 kyr BP) assemblages do not show a clear signal, though abundance of P. simplex (Meyen) suggests relatively high lake levels. Absence of P. musteri, characteristic of deep, open water, and abundance of macrophyte-associated taxa indicate lake levels were lowest from 9.8 to 3.0 kyr BP. A shift to wetter conditions began at 4.4 kyr BP, indicated by the appearance of P. musteri, though inferred lake levels did not reach modern values until 1.4 kyr BP. The Pediastrum-inferred mid-Holocene lowstand is consistent with lower precipitation, previously inferred using pollen from this site, and is also in agreement with evidence for widespread drought in the South American tropics during the middle Holocene. An inference for steadily increasing lake level from 4.4 kyr BP to present is consistent with diatom-inferred water level rise at Lake Titicaca, and demonstrates coherence with the broad pattern of increasing monsoon strength from the late Holocene until present in tropical South America.

Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

The phenology of phytoplankton blooms: ecosystems indicators from remote sensing

Remote sensing offers many advantages in the development of ecosystem indicators for the pelagic zone of the ocean. Particularly suitable in this context are the indicators arising from time series that can be constructed from remotely sensed data. For example, using ocean-colour radiometry, the phenology of phytoplankton blooms can be assessed. Metrics defined in this way show promise as informative indicators for the entire pelagic ecosystem. A simple phytoplankton–substrate model, with forcing dependent on latitude and day number is used to explore the qualitative features of bloom phenology for comparison with the results observed in a suite of 10-year time series of chlorophyll concentration, as assessed by remote sensing, from the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. The model reveals features of the dynamics that might otherwise have been overlooked in evaluation of the observational data.

Unique structural properties associated with mouse prion Δ105-125 protein

Murine prion protein deleted for residues 105-125 is intrinsically neurotoxic and mediates a TSE-like phenotype in transgenic mice. Equivalent and overlapping deletions were expressed in E.coli, purified and analyzed. Among mutants spanning the region 95-135, a construct lacking solely residues 105-125 had distinct properties when compared with the full-length prion protein 23-231 or other deletions. This distinction was also apparent followed expression in eukaryotic cells. Unlike the full-length protein, all deletion mutants failed to bind to synthetic membranes in vitro. These data suggest a novel structure for the 105-125 deleted variant that may relate to its biological properties

Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models

We evaluate the predictive power of leading indicators for output growth at horizons up to 1 year. We use the MIDAS regression approach as this allows us to combine multiple individual leading indicators in a parsimonious way and to directly exploit the information content of the monthly series to predict quarterly output growth. When we use real-time vintage data, the indicators are found to have significant predictive ability, and this is further enhanced by the use of monthly data on the quarter at the time the forecast is made

Minor structural abnormalities in the infant face disrupt neural processing: a unique window into early caregiving responses

Infant faces elicit early, specific activity in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), a key cortical region for reward and affective processing. A test of the causal relationship between infant facial configuration and OFC activity is provided by naturally occurring disruptions to the face structure. One such disruption is cleft lip, a small change to one facial feature, shown to disrupt parenting. Using magnetoencephalography, we investigated neural responses to infant faces with cleft lip compared with typical infant and adult faces. We found activity in the right OFC at 140 ms in response to typical infant faces but diminished activity to infant faces with cleft lip or adult faces. Activity in the right fusiform face area was of similar magnitude for typical adult and infant faces but was significantly lower for infant faces with cleft lip. This is the first evidence that a minor change to the infant face can disrupt neural activity potentially implicated in caregiving.

Indicators to monitor protected area sustainability: the INNOVA indicator handbook

The Mediterranean is an important eco-region, however, it suffers from the lack of common procedures for the management and monitoring of its protected areas sustainability. The INNOVA project addresses this issue by developing a procedure namely PASEMP as well as tools which can assist Protected Areas Managers and responsible authorities to develop and implement a monitoring strategy for their areas. This handbook is proposed as a flexible tool, or a reference text which should be used in combination with the PASEMP guidelines to identify indicators, but also contains guidance on how to implement and report the monitoring strategy results.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

Sustainability assessment indicators and methodology for intelligent buildings

The sustainable intelligent building is a building that has the best combination of environmental, social, economic and technical values. And its sustainability assessment is related with system engineering methods and multi-criteria decision-making. Therefore firstly, the wireless monitoring system of sustainable parameters for intelligent buildings is achieved; secondly, the indicators and key issues based on the “whole life circle” for sustainability of intelligent buildings are researched; thirdly, the sustainable assessment model identified on the structure entropy and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed.

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Diet and lifestyle in Bronze Age Northwest Spain: the collective burial of Cova do Santo

A multidisciplinary investigation of the collective burial of Cova do Santo is presented as a novel approach to understand daily life during the Bronze Age in Northwest Iberia. The research is focused on three main aspects: i) taphonomy and patterns of disposal, ii) paleopathology and -demography as indicators of health status and lifestyle, and iii) stable isotope analysis to reconstruct paleodiet and to investigate the timing of the introduction of millet to the Iberian Peninsula. Osteological analyses were performed on 64 bones (61 human and 3 animal); additionally, bone collagen was extracted from 15 samples (13 human and 2 animal) and analyzed for its carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes composition. The radiocarbon age of the human remains is consistent with the Middle Bronze Age (c. 1890 to 1600 cal BC). The recovered remains belonged to a minimum number of 14 individuals with an estimated age at death of forty years or younger. This relatively young age is in contrast to a high prevalence of degenerative joint disease in the group. The isotopic results suggest a very homogeneous diet, which was almost exclusively based on C3 plants and terrestrial animal products. Overall, the data suggest that the studied population belonged to a period prior to the introduction of spring or summer-grown crops such as millets. The collective burial from the cave of Cova de Santo, Galicia, currently represents the largest assemblage of prehistoric human remains from Northwest Spain and the relatively good preservation of the bones offers a unique opportunity to investigate daily life in Northern Iberia during the Bronze Age.

Information content and forecasting ability of sentiment indicators: case of real estate market

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting demand and supply activities. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework and using the quarterly US data over 1988-2010, we test the efficacy of several sentiment measures by comparing them with other coincident economic indicators. Overall, our analysis suggests that the sentiment in real estate convey valuable information that can help predict changes in real estate returns. These findings have important implications for investment decisions, from consumers' as well as institutional investors' perspectives.

House price dynamics in Panama City

In this paper, we analyze the drivers of the housing markets in Panama City. To the best of our knowledge, no formal academic analysis has been documented on the Panamanian housing market. In this paper, we outline key unique characteristics of the market and provide a brief review of broader economic indicators and housing market literature. Using a unique dataset comprising property-level information over 2007–2014, we employ a hedonic modeling framework to analyze the impacts of certain amenities and drivers that may affect housing values. The results indicate several unique features of the Panamanian housing market.