Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Bond graph models of DC-DC converters operating in both CCM and DCM

In this paper, Bond Graphs are employed to develop a novel mathematical model of conventional switched-mode DC-DC converters valid for both continuous and discontinuous conduction modes. A unique causality bond graph model of hybrid models is suggested with the operation of the switch and the diode to be represented by a Modulated Transformer with a binary input and a resistor with fixed conductance causality. The operation of the diode is controlled using an if-then function within the model. The extracted hybrid model is implemented on a Boost and Buck converter with their operations to change from CCM to DCM and to return to CCM. The vector fields of the models show validity in a wide operation area and comparison with the simulation of the converters using PSPICE reveals high accuracy of the proposed model, with the Normalised Root Means Square Error and the Maximum Absolute Error remaining adequately low. The model is also experimentally tested on a Buck topology.

Risks, costs and labour markets: explaining cross-national patterns of far right party success in European Parliament elections

What is the impact of the economy on cross national variation in far right-wing party support? This paper tests several hypotheses from existing literature on the results of the last three EP elections in all EU member states. We conceptualise the economy affects support because unemployment heightens the risks and costs that the population faces, but this is crucially mediated by labour market institutions. Findings from multiple regression analyses indicate that unemployment, real GDP growth, debt and deficits have no statistically significant effect on far right-wing party support at the national level. By contrast, labour markets influence costs and risks: where unemployment benefits and dismissal regulations are high, unemployment has no effect, but where either one of them is low, unemployment leads to higher far right-wing party support. This explains why unemployment has not led to far right-wing party support in some European countries that experienced the 2008 Eurozone crisis.

An investigation of the required skills for the delivery of low and zero carbon buildings within a region

The United Kingdom is committed to a raft of requirements to create a low-carbon economy. Buildings consume approximately 40% of UK energy demand. Any improvement on the energy performance of buildings therefore can significantly contribute to the delivery of a low-carbon economy. The challenge for the construction sector and its clients is how to meet the policy requirements to deliver low and zero carbon (LZC) buildings, which spans broader than the individual building level, to requirements at the local and regional levels, and wider sustainability pressures. Further, the construction sector is reporting skills shortages coupled with the need for ‘new skills’ for the delivery of LZC buildings. The aim of this paper is to identify, and better understand, the skills required by the construction sector and its clients for the delivery of LZC buildings within a region. The theoretical framing for this research is regional innovation system (RIS) using a socio-technical network analysis (STNA) methodology. A case study of a local authority region is presented. Data is drawn from a review of relevant local authority documentation, observations and semi-structured interviews from one (project 1) of five school retrofit projects within the region. The initial findings highlight the complexity surrounding the form and operation of the LZC network for project 1. The skills required by the construction sector and its clients are connected to different actor roles surrounding the delivery of the project. The key actors involved and their required skills are: project management and energy management skills required by local authority; project management skills (in particular project planning), communication and research skills required by school end-users; and a ‘technical skill’ relating to knowledge of a particular energy efficient measure (EEM) and use of equipment to implement the EEM is required by the EEM contractors.

Drinking water application of Denargard Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diar- rhoea, increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no de- finitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challenged with B. pilosicoli strain B2904 with three oral doses two days apart. All birds were colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to ap- proaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the ef- fectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

Methane cross-validation between three Fourier Transform Spectrometers: SCISAT ACE-FTS, GOSAT TANSO-FTS, and ground-based FTS measurements in the Canadian high Arctic

We present cross-validation of remote sensing measurements of methane profiles in the Canadian high Arctic. Accurate and precise measurements of methane are essential to understand quantitatively its role in the climate system and in global change. Here, we show a cross-validation between three datasets: two from spaceborne instruments and one from a ground-based instrument. All are Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTSs). We consider the Canadian SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)-FTS, a solar occultation infrared spectrometer operating since 2004, and the thermal infrared band of the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation (TANSO)-FTS, a nadir/off-nadir scanning FTS instrument operating at solar and terrestrial infrared wavelengths, since 2009. The ground-based instrument is a Bruker 125HR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, measuring mid-infrared solar absorption spectra at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) Ridge Lab at Eureka, Nunavut (80° N, 86° W) since 2006. For each pair of instruments, measurements are collocated within 500 km and 24 h. An additional criterion based on potential vorticity values was found not to significantly affect differences between measurements. Profiles are regridded to a common vertical grid for each comparison set. To account for differing vertical resolutions, ACE-FTS measurements are smoothed to the resolution of either PEARL-FTS or TANSO-FTS, and PEARL-FTS measurements are smoothed to the TANSO-FTS resolution. Differences for each pair are examined in terms of profile and partial columns. During the period considered, the number of collocations for each pair is large enough to obtain a good sample size (from several hundred to tens of thousands depending on pair and configuration). Considering full profiles, the degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS) are between 0.2 and 0.7 for TANSO-FTS and between 1.5 and 3 for PEARL-FTS, while ACE-FTS has considerably more information (roughly 1° of freedom per altitude level). We take partial columns between roughly 5 and 30 km for the ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS comparison, and between 5 and 10 km for the other pairs. The DOFS for the partial columns are between 1.2 and 2 for PEARL-FTS collocated with ACE-FTS, between 0.1 and 0.5 for PEARL-FTS collocated with TANSO-FTS or for TANSO-FTS collocated with either other instrument, while ACE-FTS has much higher information content. For all pairs, the partial column differences are within ± 3 × 1022 molecules cm−2. Expressed as median ± median absolute deviation (expressed in absolute or relative terms), these differences are 0.11 ± 9.60 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.012 ± 1.018 %) for TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS, −2.6 ± 2.6 × 10^21 molecules cm−2 (−1.6 ± 1.6 %) for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS, and 7.4 ± 6.0 × 10^20 molecules cm−2 (0.78 ± 0.64 %) for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS. The differences for ACE-FTS–PEARL-FTS and TANSO-FTS–PEARL-FTS partial columns decrease significantly as a function of PEARL partial columns, whereas the range of partial column values for TANSO-FTS–ACE-FTS collocations is too small to draw any conclusion on its dependence on ACE-FTS partial columns.

Drinking water application of Denagard® Tiamulin for control of Brachyspira pilosicoli infection of laying poultry

Avian intestinal spirochaetosis (AIS) caused by Brachyspira spp., and notably Brachyspira pilosicoli, is common in layer flocks and reportedly of increasing incidence in broilers and broiler breeders. Disease manifests as diarrhoea,increased feed consumption, reduced growth rates and occasional mortality in broilers and these signs are shown in layers also associated with a delayed onset of lay, reduced egg weights, faecal staining of eggshells and non-productive ovaries. Treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin has been used to protect against B. pilosicoli colonisation, persistence and clinical presentation of AIS in commercial layers, but to date there has been no definitive study validating efficacy. Here, we used a poultry model of B. pilosicoli infection of layers to compare the impact of three doses of Denagard® Tiamulin. Four groups of thirty 17 week old commercial pre-lay birds were all challengedwith B. pilosicoli strain B2904with three oral doses two days apart. All birdswere colonised within 2 days after the final oral challenge and mild onset of clinical signs were observed thereafter. A fifth group that was unchallenged and untreated was also included for comparison as healthy birds. Five days after the final oral Brachypira challenge three groups were given Denagard® Tiamulin in drinking water made up following the manufacturer's recommendations with doses verified as 58.7 ppm, 113 ppm and 225 ppm. Weight gain body condition and the level of diarrhoea of birds infected with B. pilosicoli were improved and shedding of the organism reduced significantly (p = 0.001) following treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin irrespective of dose given. The level and duration of colonisation of organs of birds infected with B. pilosicoli was also reduced. Confirming previous findings we showed that the ileum, caeca, colon, and both liver and spleen were colonised and here we demonstrated that treatment with Denagard® Tiamulin resulted in significant reduction in the numbers of Brachyspira found in each of these sites and dramatic reduction in faecal shedding (p b 0.001) to approaching zero as assessed by culture of cloacal swabs. Although the number of eggs produced per bird and the level of eggshell staining appeared unaffected, egg weights of treated birds were greater than those of untreated birds for a period of approximately two weeks following treatment. These data conclusively demonstrate the effectiveness of Denagard® Tiamulin in reducing B. pilosicoli infection in laying hens.

A three-fold framework for understanding HRM practices in South-Eastern European SMEs

Purpose We study particular structural and organisational factors affecting the formality of human resource management (HRM) practices in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in South-Eastern European (SEE) post-communist countries, in particular Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) in order to understand the antecedents of formalization in such settings. Design/methodology/approach Adopting a quantitative approach, this study analyses data gathered through a survey of 168 managers of SMEs from throughout the region. Findings The results show that HRM in SMEs in the SEE region can be understood through a three-fold framework which includes: degree of internationalisation of SMEs, sector of SMEs and organisational size of SMEs. These three factors positively affect the level of HRM formalisation in SEE SMEs. These findings are further attributed to the particular political and economic context of the post-communist SEE region. Research limitations/implications Although specific criteria were set for SME selection, we do not suggest that the study reflects a representative picture of the SEE region because we used a purposive sampling methodology. Practical implications This article provides useful insights into the factors which influence HRM in SMEs in a particular context. The findings can help business owners and managers understand how HRM can be applied in smaller organisations, particularly in post-communist SEE business contexts. Originality/value HRM in SMEs in this region has hardly been studied at all despite their importance. Therefore, this exploratory research seeks to expand knowledge relating to the application of HRM in SMEs in SEE countries which have their business environments dominated by different dynamics in comparison to western European ones.