75 resultados para Too Big To Fail
Resumo:
Research in ruminant nutrition and helminth control with forages, which contain condensed tannins (CT), suggests that varying responses may depend not only on CT concentration but also on CT composition. An experiment was designed to test this by feeding 2 dried sainfoin cultivars (Visnovsky and Perly), which differed in CT properties, to lambs that were artificially infected with the abomasal blood-sucking nematode Haemonchus contortus. Twenty-four infected lambs received one of these 2 cultivars; the feeds were either untreated or treated with the CT-binding polyethylene glycol over 4 wk (n = 6). The 2 cultivars were also fed to 2 × 6 uninfected lambs. Nutrient digestibility, N balance, ADG, plasma urea together with indicators of infection [fecal egg count (FEC), abomasal worm count, per capita female fecundity, erythrocytic indices, and serum protein] were determined. The specific effects of sainfoin cultivar, CT, and infection were evaluated by contrast analysis. Digestibility of both NDF and ADF were lower (P < 0.001) with Perly compared to Visnovsky. The apparent nutrient digestibility was reduced (P < 0.001) by CT. However, no clear cultivar effects were evident on N excretion and retention. Condensed tannins reduced (P = 0.05) body N retention and shifted (P < 0.001) N excretion from urine to feces. Unlike cultivar and CT, infection decreased (P = 0.002) ADG. Plasma urea concentration was lower (P = 0.007) in Perly- compared to Visnovsky-fed lambs and was decreased (P < 0.001) by CT. Plasma concentrations of essential and semi-essential AA were increased (P < 0.001) by CT. The groups of infected lambs did not clearly differ in abomasal worm counts and erythrocytic indicators. In the last 2 to 3 wk of the experiment, FEC was lower (P ≤ 0.01) when feeding CT. The lack of substantial cultivar effects suggests that the differences in CT properties may have been too small to result in nutritional and anthelmintic effects. The present results indicate that sainfoin CT had a mitigating effect on FEC and, consequently, pasture infectivity. However, the reduction was too low to expect any significant benefits in an Haemonchus-dominated system. Therefore, the use of sainfoin for controlling H. contortus should only be one component within an integrated worm control system.
Resumo:
With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.
Resumo:
The tropical tropopause is considered to be the main region of upward transport of tropospheric air carrying water vapor and other tracers to the tropical stratosphere. The lower tropical stratosphere is also the region where the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the zonal wind is observed. The QBO is positioned in the region where the upward transport of tropospheric tracers to the overworld takes place. Hence the QBO can in principle modulate these transports by its secondary meridional circulation. This modulation is investigated in this study by an analysis of general circulation model (GCM) experiments with an assimilated QBO. The experiments show, first, that the temperature signal of the QBO modifies the specific humidity in the air transported upward and, second, that the secondary meridional circulation modulates the velocity of the upward transport. Thus during the eastward phase of the QBO the upward moving air is moister and the upward velocity is less than during the westward phase of the QBO. It was further found that the QBO period is too short to allow an equilibration of the moisture in the QBO region. This causes a QBO signal of the moisture which is considerably smaller than what could be obtained in the limiting case of indefinitely long QBO phases. This also allows a high sensitivity of the mean moisture over a QBO cycle to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena or major tropical volcanic eruptions. The interplay of sporadic volcanic eruptions, ENSO, and QBO can produce low-frequency variability in the water vapor content of the tropical stratosphere, which renders the isolation of the QBO signal in observational data of water vapor in the equatorial lower stratosphere difficult.
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The statistical relationship between springtime and summertime ozone over middle and polar latitudes is analyzed using zonally averaged total ozone data. Shortterm variations in springtime midlatitude ozone demonstrate only a modest correlation with springtime polar ozone variations. However by early summer, ozone variations throughout the extratropics are highly correlated. Analysis of correlation functions indicates that springtime midlatitude ozone, not polar ozone, is the best predictor for summertime polar ozone. Long-term total ozone trends at middle and high latitudes are also different for spring and nearly identical for summer. About 39% of the observed southern midlatitude ozone decline in December can be attributed to the polar ozone depletion up to November. In the Northern Hemisphere, the corresponding contribution is about 15%, but the error bars are too large to make an accurate estimate.
Resumo:
Introgression in Festulolium is a potentially powerful tool to isolate genes for a large number of traits which differ between Festuca pratensis Huds. and Lolium perenne L. Not only are hybrids between the two species fertile, but the two genomes can be distinguished by genomic in situ hybridisation and a high frequency of recombination occurs between homoeologous chromosomes and chromosome segments. By a programme of introgression and a series of backcrosses, L. perenne lines have been produced which contain small F. pratensis substitutions. This material is a rich source of polymorphic markers targeted towards any trait carried on the F. pratensis substitution not observed in the L. perenne background. We describe here the construction of an F. pratensis BAC library, which establishes the basis of a map-based cloning strategy in L. perenne. The library contains 49,152 clones, with an average insert size of 112 kbp, providing coverage of 2.5 haploid genome equivalents. We have screened the library for eight amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) derived markers known to be linked to an F. pratensis gene introgressed into L. perenne and conferring a staygreen phenotype as a consequence of a mutation in primary chlorophyll catabolism. While for four of the markers it was possible to identify bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) clones, the other four AFLPs were too repetitive to enable reliable identification of locus-specific BACs. Moreover, when the four BACs were partially sequenced, no obvious coding regions could be identified. This contrasted to BACs identified using cDNA sequences, when multiple genes were identified on the same BAC.
Resumo:
A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is nudged toward reanalysis data up to 1 hPa is used to examine the impacts of parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD and NGWD) on the zonal-mean circulation of the mesosphere during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009 when there were two large stratospheric sudden warmings. The simulations are compared to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of mesospheric temperature, carbon monoxide (CO) and derived zonal winds. The control simulation, which uses both OGWD and NGWD, is shown to be in good agreement with MLS. The impacts of OGWD and NGWD are assessed using simulations in which those sources of wave drag are removed. In the absence of OGWD the mesospheric zonal winds in the months preceding the warmings are too strong, causing increased mesospheric NGWD, which drives excessive downwelling, resulting in overly large lower mesospheric values of CO prior to the warming. NGWD is found to be most important following the warmings when the underlying westerlies are too weak to allow much vertical propagation of the orographic gravity waves to the mesosphere. NGWD is primarily responsible for driving the circulation that results in the descent of CO from the thermosphere following the warmings. Zonal mean mesospheric winds and temperatures in all simulations are shown to be strongly constrained by (i.e. slaved to) the stratosphere. Finally, it is demonstrated that the responses to OGWD and NGWD are non-additive due to their dependence and influence on the background winds and temperatures.
Resumo:
Fluorescence is a troublesome side effect in laboratory Raman studies on sulfuric acid solutions and aerosol particles. We performed experiments showing that organic matter induces fluorescence in H2SO4/H2O solutions. The intensity of the fluorescence signal appears to be almost independent of the concentration of the organic substances, but depends strongly on the sulfuric acid concentration. The ubiquity of organic substances in the atmosphere, their relatively high abundance, and the insensitivity of the fluorescence with respect to their concentrations will render most acidic natural aerosols subject to absorption and fluorescence, possibly influencing climate forcing. We show that, while fluorescence may in the future become a valuable tool of aerosol diagnostics, the concurrent absorption is too small to significantly affect the atmosphere's radiative balance.
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This paper presents a critical history of the concept of ‘structured deposition’. It examines the long-term development of this idea in archaeology, from its origins in the early 1980s through to the present day, looking at how it has been moulded and transformed. On the basis of this historical account, a number of problems are identified with the way that ‘structured deposition’ has generally been conceptualized and applied. It is suggested that the range of deposits described under a single banner as being ‘structured’ is unhelpfully broad, and that archaeologists have been too willing to view material culture patterning as intentionally produced – the result of symbolic or ritual action. It is also argued that the material signatures of ‘everyday’ practice have been undertheorized and all too often ignored. Ultimately, it is suggested that if we are ever to understand fully the archaeological signatures of past practice, it is vital to consider the ‘everyday’ as well as the ‘ritual’ processes which lie behind the patterns we uncover in the ground.
Resumo:
Atmospheric profiles of cosmic rays and radioactivity can be obtained using adapted meteorologi- cal radiosondes, for which Geiger tubes remain widely used detectors. Simultaneous triggering of two tubes provides an indication of energetic events. As, however, only small volume detectors can be carried, the event rate is small, which, due to the rapid balloon ascent, cannot be circumvented using long averaging periods. To derive count rates at low altitudes, a microcontroller is used to de- termine the inter-event time. This yields estimates of the coincidence rate below 5 km, where the coincidence rate is too small to determine solely by event counting
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We have calculated the concentrations of Mg in the bulk and surfaces of aragonite CaCO3 in equilibrium with aqueous solution, based on molecular dynamics simulations and grand-canonical statistical mechanics. Mg is incorporated in the surfaces, in particular in the (001) terraces, rather than in the bulk of aragonite particles. However, the total Mg content in the bulk and surface of aragonite particles was found to be too small to account for the measured Mg/Ca ratios in corals. We therefore argue that most Mg in corals is either highly metastable in the aragonite lattice, or is located outside the aragonite phase of the coral skeleton, and we discuss the implications of this finding for Mg/Ca paleothermometry.
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We present high time-resolution multiwavelength observations of X-ray bursts in the low-mass X-ray binary UY Vol. Strong reprocessed signals are present in the ultraviolet and optical, lagged and smeared with respect to the X-rays. The addition of far-ultraviolet coverage for one burst allows much tighter constraints on the temperature and geometry of the reprocessing region than previously possible. A blackbody reprocessing model for this burst suggests a rise in temperatures during the burst from 18,000 to 35,000 K and an emitting area comparable to that expected for the disk and/or irradiated companion star. The lags are consistent with those expected. The single-zone blackbody model cannot reproduce the ratio of optical to ultraviolet flux during the burst, however. The discrepancy seems too large to explain with deviations from a local blackbody spectrum and more likely indicates that a range of reprocessing temperatures are required. Comparable results are derived from other bursts, and in particular the lag and smearing both appear shorter when the companion star is on the near side of the disk as predicted. The burst observed by HST also yielded a spectrum of the reprocessed light. It is dominated by continuum, with a spectral shape consistent with the temperatures derived from lightcurve modeling. Taken as a whole, our observations confirm the standard paradigm of prompt reprocessing distributed across the disk and companion star, with the response dominated by a thermalized continuum rather than by emission lines.
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This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR). Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.
Resumo:
Particle filters are fully non-linear data assimilation techniques that aim to represent the probability distribution of the model state given the observations (the posterior) by a number of particles. In high-dimensional geophysical applications the number of particles required by the sequential importance resampling (SIR) particle filter in order to capture the high probability region of the posterior, is too large to make them usable. However particle filters can be formulated using proposal densities, which gives greater freedom in how particles are sampled and allows for a much smaller number of particles. Here a particle filter is presented which uses the proposal density to ensure that all particles end up in the high probability region of the posterior probability density function. This gives rise to the possibility of non-linear data assimilation in large dimensional systems. The particle filter formulation is compared to the optimal proposal density particle filter and the implicit particle filter, both of which also utilise a proposal density. We show that when observations are available every time step, both schemes will be degenerate when the number of independent observations is large, unlike the new scheme. The sensitivity of the new scheme to its parameter values is explored theoretically and demonstrated using the Lorenz (1963) model.
Resumo:
Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory’s H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak(H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10 %. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20 %. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field).We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any “floor” value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.
Resumo:
Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.