Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

Developing international business managers through international study visits to China

Globalization is a key factor in the success of business organizations today, impacting many aspects of management performance. Understanding the global business environment has therefore become a key objective in the teaching of international business on Executive MBA programs. Drawing on the theory of experiential learning, this study examines the relationship between program structure and learning activities of an international study visit (ISV) to China and the learning experience for Executive MBA students. The findings indicate that learning experience may be most effective where the structure of an ISV incorporates certain activities that promote experiential and deep-level learning. Educational implications are discussed.

Effective interventions: 25 years outside the mainstream

25 years ago when the Durham conferences were in full swing, I presented results of investigations on language and behaviour in autism. I tentatively proposed that early language in autism might tell us about the cognitive skills of people with ASD and the behaviour might lead to greater understanding of which brain systems might be affected. In this presentation, I will update these topics and present a summary of other work I have been involved with in attempting to improve the lives of people with autism and their families. Data on three people with autism at the early stages of speech development showed an unusual pattern of learning colour and number names early. One possibility was that this skill represented a sign of weak central coherence – they only attended to one dimension. Colleagues of mine were equally puzzled so we tried to find out if my results could be replicated – they were not (see Schafer, Williams & Smith, 2014). Instead we found this pattern was also seen in Down Syndrome, but that early vocabulary in autism was associated with low Colorado Meaningfulness at least in comprehension. The Colorado Meaningfulness of a word is a measure of how many words can be associated with it and often involve extensive use of context. Our data suggest that the number of contexts in which a particular word can appear has a role in determining vocabulary in ASD which is consistent with the weak central coherence theory of autism. In the course of this work I also came across a group of young people with autism who appeared to have a written vocabulary but not a spoken one. It seems possible that print might be a medium of communication when speech is not. Repetitive behaviour in autism remains a mystery. We can use functional analysis to determine why the behaviour occurs, but a worryingly large percentage of behaviours are described as being internally driven or sensory reinforced. What does that mean in terms of brain activity – could it be system analogous to epilepsy, where brain activity becomes inappropriately synchronised? At the moment I cannot claim to have solved this problem, but if sensation is a driver then sensory interventions should make a difference. Data from a recent study will be presented to suggest that for some individuals this is the case. Social behaviour remains the key however, and it remains to be seen whether it is possible for social behaviour to be aided. One route that has potential is direct teaching of skills through drama and working with others who do not have social difficulties of the same type. The picture is complicated by changes in social skills with age and experience, but the failure of people with ASD to interact when in settings of social contact is little researched.

Investigating early years teachers’ understanding and response to children’s preconceptions

This paper focuses on young children’s scientific preconceptions and discusses teachers’ identification of these preconceptions when teaching science in the early years, on which research is still limited. This paper is based on the theoretical framework of constructivism and it defines preconceptions as children’s erroneous concepts prior to formal education. A two phase case study approach was employed, facilitating in-depth investigation though the use of questionnaires, interviews and observations. The results indicate that the teachers did not dedicate time to identify children’s preconceptions when planning and teaching science, even when acknowledging preconceptions’ possible existence. This indicates a possible lack of appreciation of the importance of children’s preconceptions of the consequences when ignoring them. The results also indicate the need for further training and professional development in relation to the teaching of early-years science, especially since only a very small percentage of early years teachers tend to study science during their years compulsory education. A number of suggestions are also provided for practice and policy that can be useful for other subjects as well.

Linguistic capital and the linguistic field for teachers unaccustomed to linguistic difference

Teachers in classrooms throughout England are facing a shifting demographic in their pupil intake. Where once the teaching of children whose first language was not English was considered an inner-city teachers’ role, more recent migration patterns have challenged this preconception (Andrews, 2009). In England in particular, this change sits against an historical backdrop of centralised control of the curriculum for English. This article explores how primary school teachers responded to the arrival of Polish children in county settings following EU accession in 2004. Interviews with a small sample of teachers in schools that had previously been mainly monolingual were coded using Bourdieu’s Logic of Practice. Analysis revealed a complex mix of experienced that appeared to rest on assumed pedagogical norms and professionally assimilated external pressures. Discussion centres on the author’s interpretation of teachers’ ownership of linguistic capital and its relationship to linguistic field.

Good practice for pupils learning English as an additional language; lessons from effective literacy teachers in inner city primary schools.

This article presents observations and discussion of the successful teaching of English to pupils, in English primary schools, for whom English is an additional language (EAL). It draws on research in Year 2 (6/7year old) classes in three inner-city primary schools carried out in 2003 and 2005. Three recognised, effective teachers of literacy were selected for case study; all worked in successful schools where results for literacy, measured by national tests, were in line with or better than national averages. Following analyses of lesson observations and interviews with the teachers, their Headteachers and the EAL co-ordinators in the schools, a number of common elements in their practice emerged. Discussion centres on how these pedagogical features supported effective learning environments for the early literacy development of bilingual children, and on the implications for the practice of teaching English to all pupils.

Gender, childhood and children’s literature: the CIRCL approach

This paper explores the unique approach to childhood and children’s literature of the research and teaching of the ‘Graduate Centre for International Research in Childhood: Literature, Culture, Media (CIRCL)’. CIRCL follows in its work the arguments of UK critical theorist Jacqueline Rose in her seminal 1984 book The case of Peter Pan or the impossibility of children’s fiction. Rose’s work has been widely and routinely referenced in Children’s Literature studies particularly, but CIRCL interprets her arguments as having quite different implications than those usually assumed. Rose is generally attributed with having pointed out that ‘childhood’ is not one, homogenous category, but that childhood is divided by gender, race, and ethnic, political and religious (and so on) identities. But for CIRCL this is only a first step in Rose’s arguments and certainly one not unique to her work anyway: the perception of various cultural and historical childhoods is widely held. Instead, my paper explores how Rose’s arguments are centrally about how ‘childhood’ itself cannot be maintained in the face of division, a division, moreover, which operates inevitably at every level, and which derives from Rose’s interpretation of psychoanalysis as formulated by Sigmund Freud, which Rose derives in turn from her readings of the interpretations of Freud by French analyst Jacques Lacan and French critical theorist Jacques Derrida. Finally, my paper argues how Rose’s position is about any ‘identity’, including gender and that this allies her work closely to that of the famous gender theorist Judith Butler, whose arguments are often (mis) understood in the same ways as those of Rose.

Internationalizing the MFA in Creative Writing

is article explores the prospects for internationalizing the Master of Fine Arts (MFA) in Creative Writing, a degree that has gained considerable popularity in the United States in the past half century but has yet to gain much of a foothold in other countries. As part of this exploration, we describe the experiences of estab- lishing the first low-residency Master of Fine Arts in Creative Writing in Asia at City University of Hong Kong, explaining the justification for setting up such a program with reference to the history of teaching creative writing and the current conditions for literary writing in English in Asia and globally. We also reflect upon the processes of planning, curriculum design, and administrative negotiation and that went into setting up the program and report on feedback from the first cohort of students. e experience of setting up this program is used as the basis for raising a number of more general issues regarding the teaching of creative writing in English in interna- tional contexts.