Proposed best practice for statisticians in the reporting and publication of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community.

The potential for bias in reporting of industry-sponsored clinical trials

Concerns about potentially misleading reporting of pharmaceutical industry research have surfaced many times. The potential for duality (and thereby conflict) of interest is only too clear when you consider the sums of money required for the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines. As the ability of major, mid-size and small pharmaceutical companies to innovate has waned, as evidenced by the seemingly relentless decline in the numbers of new medicines approved by Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency year-on-year, not only has the cost per new approved medicine risen: so too has the public and media concern about the extent to which the pharmaceutical industry is open and honest about the efficacy, safety and quality of the drugs we manufacture and sell. In 2005 an Editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association made clear that, so great was their concern about misleading reporting of industry-sponsored studies, henceforth no article would be published that was not also guaranteed by independent statistical analysis. We examine the precursors to this Editorial, as well as its immediate and lasting effects for statisticians, for the manner in which statistical analysis is carried out, and for the industry more generally.

The Identity of the St Bees Lady, Cumbria: An Osteobiographical Approach

Using an Osteobiographical approach, this contribution considers the identity of the woman found alongside the St Bees Man, one of the best-preserved archaeological bodies ever discovered. Osteological, isotopic and radiocarbon analyses, combined with the archaeological context of the burial and documented social history, provide the basis for the identification of a late 14th-century heiress whose activities were at the heart of medieval northern English geopolitics.

Influence of the Photorhabdus luminescens phosphomannose isomerase gene, manA, on mannose utilization, exopolysaccharide structure, and biofilm formation

Extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) is produced by diverse bacterial pathogens and fulfills assorted roles, including providing a structural matrix for biofilm formation and more specific functions in virulence, such as protection against immune defenses. We report here the first investigation of some of the genes important for biofilm formation in Photorhabdus luminescens and demonstrate the key role of the phosphomannose isomerase gene, manA, in the structure of functional EPS. Phenotypic analyses of a manA-deficient mutant showed the importance of EPS in motility, insect virulence, and biofilm formation on abiotic surfaces as well as the requirement of this gene for the use of mannose as the sole carbon source. Conversely, this defect had no apparent impact on symbiosis with the heterorhabditid nematode vector. A more detailed analysis of biofilm formation revealed that the manA mutant was able to attach to surfaces with the same efficiency as that of the wild-type strain but could not develop the more extended biofilm matrix structures. A compositional analysis of P. luminescens EPS reveals how the manA mutation has a major effect on the formation of a complete, branched EPS.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results

This paper presents a preface to this Special Issue on the results of the QUEST-GSI (Global Scale Impacts) project on climate change impacts on catchment-scale water resources. A detailed description of the unified methodology, subsequently used in all studies in this issue, is provided. The project method involved running simulations of catchment-scale hydrology using a unified set of past and future climate scenarios, to enable a consistent analysis of the climate impacts around the globe. These scenarios include "policy-relevant" prescribed warming scenarios. This is followed by a synthesis of the key findings. Overall, the studies indicate that in most basins the models project substantial changes to river flow, beyond that observed in the historical record, but that in many cases there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes. The implications of this for adaptation activities are discussed.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

Sequential methods for pharmacogenetic studies

A study or experiment can be described as sequential if its design includes one or more interim analyses at which it is possible to stop the study, having reached a definitive conclusion concerning the primary question of interest. The potential of the sequential study to terminate earlier than the equivalent fixed sample size study means that, typically, there are ethical and economic advantages to be gained from using a sequential design. These advantages have secured a place for the methodology in the conduct of many clinical trials of novel therapies. Recently, there has been increasing interest in pharmacogenetics: the study of how DNA variation in the human genome affects the safety and efficacy of drugs. The potential for using sequential methodology in pharmacogenetic studies is considered and the conduct of candidate gene association studies, family-based designs and genome-wide association studies within the sequential setting is explored. The objective is to provide a unified framework for the conduct of these types of studies as sequential designs and hence allow experimenters to consider using sequential methodology in their future pharmacogenetic studies.

A review of the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat, SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA on vascular function, endothelial progenitor cells and microparticles

Vascular dysfunction is recognised as an integrative marker of CVD. While dietary strategies aimed at reducing CVD risk include reductions in the intake of SFA, there are currently no clear guidelines on what should replace SFA. The purpose of this review was to assess the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat and individual fatty acids (SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA) on vascular function, cellular microparticles and endothelial progenitor cells. Medline was systematically searched from 1966 until November 2010. A total of fifty-nine peer-reviewed publications (covering fifty-six studies), which included five epidemiological, eighteen dietary intervention and thirty-three test meal studies, were identified. The findings from the epidemiological studies were inconclusive. The limited data available from dietary intervention studies suggested a beneficial effect of low-fat diets on vascular reactivity, which was strongest when the comparator diet was high in SFA, with a modest improvement in measures of vascular reactivity when high-fat, MUFA-rich diets were compared with SFA-rich diets. There was consistent evidence from the test meal studies that high-fat meals have a detrimental effect on postprandial vascular function. However, the evidence for the comparative effects of test meals rich in MUFA or n-6 PUFA with SFA on postprandial vascular function was limited and inconclusive. The lack of studies with comparable within-study dietary fatty acid targets, a variety of different study designs and different methods for determining vascular function all confound any clear conclusions on the impact of dietary fat and individual fatty acids on vascular function.

Structural characterisation of bisintercalation in higher-order DNA at a junction-like quadruplex

We report the single-crystal X-ray structure for the complex of the bisacridine bis-(9-aminooctyl(2-(dimethylaminoethyl)acridine-4-carboxamide)) with the oligonucleotide d(CGTACG)2 to a resolution of 2.4 Å. Solution studies with closed circular DNA show this compound to be a bisintercalating threading agent, but so far we have no crystallographic or NMR structural data conforming to the model of contiguous intercalation within the same duplex. Here, with the hexameric duplex d(CGTACG), the DNA is observed to undergo a terminal cytosine base exchange to yield an unusual guanine quadruplex intercalation site through which the bisacridine threads its octamethylene linker to fuse two DNA duplexes. The 4-carboxamide side-chains form anchoring hydrogen-bonding interactions with guanine O6 atoms on each side of the quadruplex. This higher-order DNA structure provides insight into an unexpected property of bisintercalating threading agents, and suggests the idea of targeting such compounds specifically at four-way DNA junctions.

Guanine specific binding at a DNA junction formed by d[CG(5-BrU)ACG]2 with a topoisomerase poison in the presence of Co2+Ions†,‡

The structure of the duplex d[CG(5-BrU)ACG]2 bound to 9-bromophenazine-4-carboxamide has been solved through MAD phasing at 2.0 Å resolution. It shows an unexpected and previously unreported intercalation cavity stabilized by the drug and novel binding modes of Co2+ ions at certain guanine N7 sites. For the intercalation cavity the terminal cytosine is rotated to pair with the guanine of a symmetry-related duplex to create a pseudo-Holliday junction geometry, with two such cavities linked through the minor groove interactions of the N2/N3 guanine sites at an angle of 40°, creating a quadruplex-like structure. The mode of binding of the drug is shown to be disordered, with the major conformations showing the side chain bound to the N7 position of adjacent guanines. The other end of the duplex exhibits a terminal base fraying in the presence of Co2+ ions linking symmetry-related guanines, causing the helices to intertwine through the minor groove. The stabilization of the structure by the intercalating drug shows that this class of compound may bind to DNA junctions as well as duplex DNA or to strand-nicked DNA (‘hemi-intercalated'), as in the cleavable complex. This suggests a structural basis for the dual poisoning of topoisomerase I and II enzymes by this family of drugs.

Determination by MAD-DM of the structure of the DNA duplex d[ACGTACG(5-BrU)]2 at 1.46 Å and 100 K

A four-wavelength MAD experiment on a new brominated octanucleotide is reported here. d[ACGTACG(5-BrU)], C77H81BrN30O32P7, (DNA) = 2235, tetragonal, P43212 (No. 96), a = 43.597, c = 26.268 Å, V = 49927.5 Å3, Z = 8, T = 100 K, R = 10.91% for 4312 reflections between 15.0 and 1.46 Å resolution. The self-complementary brominated octanucleotide d[ACGTACG(5-BrU)]2 has been crystallized and data measured to 1.45 Å at both 293 K and a second crystal flash frozen at 100 K. The latter data collection was carried out to the same resolution at the four wavelengths 0.9344, 0.9216, 0.9208 and 0.9003 Å, around the Br K edge at 0.92 Å and the structure determined from a map derived from a MAD data analysis using pseudo-MIR methodology, as implemented in the program MLPHARE. This is one of the first successful MAD phasing experiments carried out at Sincrotrone Elettra in Trieste, Italy. The structure was refined using the data measured at 0.9003 Å, anisotropic temperature factors and the restrained least-squares refinement implemented in the program SHELX96, and the helical parameters are compared with those previously determined for the isomorphous d(ACGTACGT)2 analogue. The asymmetric unit consists of a single strand of octamer with 96 water molecules. No countercations were located. The A-DNA helix geometry obtained has been analysed using the CURVES program.